汽车行业2022年年报&2023年一季报点评及月度销量跟踪：需求终会逐步回暖，价格竞争将阶段性缓解

11中邮证券2023年4月28日汽车行业2022年年报&2023年一季报点评及月度销量跟踪证券研究报告首席分析师： 白宇 SAC编号： S1340523040001 分析师： 吴迪 SAC编号： S1340522090002需求终会逐步回暖，价格竞争将阶段性缓解行业投资评级：强于大市 2乘用车板块业绩分析（据申万二级指数分类）n一季度乘用车板块总体盈利承压，二季度汽车行业需求或逐步平稳。2023年伊始由特斯拉引领的价格战仍在持续，主要车企在当前时点选择以价换量的不在少数，预计价格战将贯穿全年，整车企业盈利能力整体承压。而随政策面导向巩固和扩大新能源汽车发展优势，以及上海车展后车企新品投放加码，预计二季度汽车行业需求将逐步平稳。n垂直整合成本优势显现且快速迭代产品矩阵完善的车企或首先胜出。比亚迪随王朝、海洋不断扩大基本盘，腾势、仰望成功实现品牌向上，公司量价齐升逻辑持续兑现，全球电动车龙头地位将更加稳固。长城汽车深耕智能电动化，自身alpha属性较强，魏派从蓝山开始全面新能源化，外加哈弗推进新能源网络建设，转型成效或逐步显现。名称市值（百万）营收增速（%）归母净利增速（%）毛利率（%）净利率（%）4Q2220221Q234Q2220221Q234Q2220221Q234Q2220221Q23长城汽车184,970-17.0 0.7 -13.6 -94.1 0.7 -89.3 17.9 19.4 16.1 0.3 6.0 0.6 长安汽车103,77238.4 15.3 -0.1 60.4 15.3 53.7 20.9 20.5 18.6 2.5 6.4 19.4 比亚迪692,477120.4 96.2 79.8 1,114.3 96.2 410.9 19.0 17.0 17.9 4.9 4.2 3.6 海马汽车7,5985.2 33.0 44.5 -587.9 33.0 14.5 -6.6 9.8 7.8 -209.9 -66.3 -3.3 北汽蓝谷23,66646.5 9.4 44.3 24.4 9.4 6.8 -3.6 -5.2 -8.6 -50.4 -56.7 -35.5 上汽集团164,970-4.6 -4.6 -20.0 -17.1 -4.6 -49.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 2.7 3.2 2.9 广汽集团91,87947.0 45.4 14.1 -99.7 45.4 -48.9 9.4 7.0 4.0 -0.2 7.3 4.9 赛力斯44,200108.4 104.0 -0.8 -56.3 104.0 25.5 14.5 11.3 8.9 -14.9 -15.3 -17.5 图表 1：乘用车整车板块主要公司业绩一览资料来源：iFind，中邮证券研究所（市值选取最近收盘日（4月28日）的市值） 3商用车板块业绩分析（据申万二级指数分类）名称市值（百万）营收增速（%）归母净利增速（%）毛利率（%）净利率（%）4Q2220221Q234Q2220221Q234Q2220221Q234Q2220221Q23安凯客车3,777-35.1 -16.4 -29.4 22.9 -16.4 22.6 9.8 5.7 7.7 -26.9 -17.4 -14.2 宇通客车29,91014.7 -6.2 1.4 78.4 -6.2 204.2 26.1 22.8 21.5 7.3 3.5 3.5 江铃汽车9,055-17.1 -14.5 4.1 104.6 -14.5 -5.8 14.0 14.2 13.4 2.3 2.9 2.1 中集车辆23,29122.2 -14.6 28.3 299.9 -14.6 285.2 16.0 13.3 18.5 7.2 4.7 7.2 一汽解放37,861-22.4 -61.2 -7.4 207.3 -61.2 -86.3 12.3 8.0 6.1 13.0 1.0 0.4 金龙汽车4,45340.4 18.3 27.8 53.5 18.3 175.3 7.0 9.6 11.0 -2.0 -2.5 0.5 动力新科9,043-41.8 -59.3 -50.5 -561.8 -59.3 -2,964.6 9.8 7.7 -0.0 -51.3 -16.2 -23.9 福田汽车26,1727.1 -15.5 20.9 96.7 -15.5 119.9 10.7 11.4 11.0 -1.6 0.1 2.0 中国重汽17,141-11.1 -48.6 22.9 -27.1 -48.6 80.5 3.5 6.2 7.9 -1.4 1.8 3.5 中通客车5,9713.7 15.0 -19.6 4,711.2 15.0 158.6 17.8 17.5 23.4 2.3 1.9 3.0 江淮汽车25,597-5.6 -9.3 10.3 -15,529.2 -9.3 151.0 11.1 8.4 11.6 -9.8 -4.7 1.3 汉马科技4,94020.3 -35.5 -33.3 37.7 -35.5 71.7 0.0 -5.1 -6.6 -34.1 -43.8 -7.7 图表 2：商用车整车板块主要公司业绩一览资料来源：iFind，中邮证券研究所（市值选取最近收盘日（4月28日）的市值）n一季度或确立行业拐点，二季度表现值得期待。据中汽协，一季度商用车产销分别完成94.8万辆和93.8万辆，同比分别下降3.9%和2.9%。商用车市场回暖有加速的势头，整车企业对零部件采购订单加快增长。另据第一商用车网，一季度重卡累计销量24.13万辆，累计增幅4%，其中3月销量11.54万辆，同比增幅50%。较高的同比增速或确立行业拐点，二季度市场良好表现值得期待。 4零部件及其他板块业绩分析（据申万二级指数分类）名称市值（百万）营收增速（%）归母净利增速（%）毛利率（%）净利率（%）4Q2220221Q234Q2220221Q234Q2220221Q234Q2220221Q23隆盛科技4,5289.5 23.5 18.6 -68.1 23.5 39.3 18.5 18.9 20.8 1.7 6.3 12.1 英搏尔4,81320.7 105.5 -26.9 -126.6 105.5 -169.2 22.5 16.2 17.0 -1.3 1.2 -5.0 科博达22,18526.5 20.6 24.0 -24.1 20.6 43.8 28.3 32.9 31.3 10.8 14.8 15.5 秦安股份3,9451.9 -11.0 -3.6 556.0 -11.0 48.8 17.5 20.2 27.8 19.2 14.4 18.4 保隆科技9,37747.6 22.6 22.9 124.0 22.6 109.6 28.6 28.0 28.2 6.3 4.8 8.0 松原股份5,15316.7 33.1 2.2 8.7 33.1 42.1 29.4 28.4 31.9 13.5 11.9 14.4 经纬恒润16,90713.2 23.3 4.3 -12.3 23.3 -175.8 29.1 29.0 26.4 6.5 5.8 -11.8 科博达21,63026.5 20.6 24.0 -24.1 20.6 43.8 28.3 32.9 31.3 10.8 14.8 15.5 银轮股份10,71824.9 8.5 24.3 3,160.9 8.5 80.7 19.3 19.8 20.2 6.9 5.3 5.5 明新旭腾3,79530.6 4.2 10.4 122.9 4.2 -133.3 34.4 32.5 21.0 14.1 11.7 -3.8 中国汽研22,378-8.6 -14.2 26.0 2.4 -14.2 9.5 44.6 44.1 42.5 19.3 22.1 22.2 图表 3：零部件及其他板块主要公司业绩一览资料来源：iFind，中邮证券研究所（市值选取最近收盘日（4月28日）的市值）n电动智能化深入推进，成本最优及供应链安全是发展主线。自主零部件在电动智能化浪潮下快速迭代产品技术，同时严控成本，逐步衍生累积全球竞争力。绑定特斯拉、比亚迪、理想等强势整车的供应链企业或快速成长。另外，资质完备的检测类标的或受益同整车销量的解耦及稀缺性，在价格战背景下优享行业发展红利。n电动化或以规模效应带动零部件盈利。据中汽协，一季度国内新能源车渗透率达26.1%，电动化持续深度推进，全年行业总量或抵近850万辆的规模。电动化零部件前期研发及固定资产投入相对较高，行业总量的提升将促进规模效应以释放利润。混动方面关注贡献高收入弹性的增量零部件，电驱动方面关注800V等技术演进带来的增量/提价零部件。n智能化以爆款车型拉动增量零部件及功能配置率从0到1加速提升。新能源车电子电气架构升级带来底盘、车身、智驾及座舱域控加速发展，用户体验感知度强的增量配置或先成为标配，随爆款车型加速提升渗透率。 5目录一、3月汽车销量回望 以价换量短期承压，政策+新品或促二季度回暖···············································································································8 新能源渗透率维持增势····························································································································································9 纯电动+插混齐发力，规模效应渐增··································································································································10 市占率：自主稳中有升，合资分化·····································································································································11二、国内新势力车企销量及重点车型跟踪 理想：频出爆品，销量企稳················································································································································13 小鹏：“扶摇”全域智能，G6销量可期··························································································································14 蔚来：矩阵布局平台升级，全新ES6交付在即················································································································16 哪吒：首款跑车助力品牌进阶············································································································································18 零跑：重构产品架构，高性