2023年3月信用债市场运行报告：城投企业净融资增加，房地产债券大量逾期

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2023年4月16日 、 城投企业净融资增加，房地产债券大量逾期 ——2023年3月信用债市场运行报告 摘 要 作 者：曹晓婧 简奖平 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 发行方面，3月份信用债共发行15,750.20亿元，发行规模环比增加。其中，发行量最大的为短期融资券、公司债和中期票据，分别发行5,736.26亿元、4,793.32亿元和3,678.78亿元。当月取消或推迟发行的信用债有87只，涉及金额509.52亿元。 净融资方面，3月份信用债净融资为1,479.75亿元，净融资规模环比下降。10个重点行业中建筑装饰行业实现净融资最多，净融资额为2,132.86亿元；AAA、AA+和AA级主体净融资分别为-405.74亿元、1,604.96亿元和433.79亿元；国有企业和非国有企业净融资分别为2,481.86亿元和-1,002.11亿元；城投债和非城投债净融资分别为8,211.74亿元和-1,193.12亿元。 到期压力方面，截至3月末，未来6个月将有49,507.02亿元信用债到期，到期压力迁移系数为0.87，较上月末减少0.07。分行业看，多数重点行业信用债到期压力环比下降。分企业性质看，国有企业与非国有企业信用债到期压力均环比下降。城投债与非城投债比较方面，城投债与非城投债到期压力均环比下降。 到期收益率方面，3月份中短期票据和城投债二级市场到期收益率均下行。其中，短期限低等级城投债到期收益率下行幅度较大，下行了42.93BP。 信用利差方面，3月份产业债和城投债信用利差均整体收窄。弱资质城投债信用利差处于自2015年以来的历史高位，其中3年期和5年期AA-级城投债信用利差所处百分位数均超过90%。 展望未来，3月份国务院金融机构改革方案中规定企业债发行审核权将由发改委划转至证监会，在相关配套政策完善前，或将对短期内企业债的发行构成影响。城投债方面，在加强地方政府债务管理和防范系统性风险的背景下，弱资质城投企业的信用风险暴露可能性或将进一步加大，其信用利差或将仍处于历史高位。地产债方面，尽管盘活存量资产的相关政策在陆续推进，尾部企业流动性困境仍未得到根本性改善，仍需警惕相关企业债务逾期风险。 相关研究报告： 1.《2023年2月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.3.15 2.《2023年1月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.2.14 3.《2022年12月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.1.13 4.《2022年11月信用债市场运行报告》，2022.12.14 5.《2022年10月信用债市场运行报告》，2022.11.15 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets April 16th, 2023 Summary In terms of the issuance of China’s corporate bonds, a total of 1,575.020 billion yuan of corporate bonds were issued in March, and the issuance scale increased month-on-month. Among them, the short-term financing bills, corporate bonds and medium-term notes with the largest issuance volume were 573.626 billion yuan, 479.332 billion yuan and 367.878 billion yuan respectively. There were 87 corporate bonds cancelled or postponed in this month, involving an amount of 50.952 billion yuan. In terms of net financing, the net financing of China’s corporate bonds in March was 147.975 billion yuan, which decreased month on month. Among the 10 key industries, the building decoration industry achieved the most net financing, with a net financing amount of 213.286 billion yuan. The net financing of AAA, AA+ and AA level entities was -40.574 billion yuan, 160.496 billion yuan and 43.379 billion yuan respectively. The net financing of state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises was 248.186 billion yuan and -100.211 billion yuan respectively. The net financing of Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bonds and non-LGFV bonds was 821.174 billion yuan and -119.312 billion yuan respectively. In terms of maturity pressure, as of the end of March, 4,950.702 billion yuan of China’s corporate bonds will mature in the next six months, and the maturity pressure migration coefficient was 0.87, down 0.07 from the end of previous month. From the perspective of industries, the maturity pressure of most key industries increased month-on-month. From the perspective of enterprise ownership, the maturity pressure of state-owned companies’ bonds and non-state-owned companies’ bonds both decreased month-on-month. From the perspective of LGFV bonds and non-LGFV bonds, the maturity pressure of LGFV bonds and non-LGFV bonds both decreased month-on-month. In terms of yield to maturity, the yields to maturity of short and medium-term notes and LGFV bonds in the secondary market both declined in March. Among them, the yield to maturity of short-term low-grade LGFV bonds fell significantly, down by 42.93BP. In terms of credit spreads, the credit spreads of industrial bonds and LGFV bonds narrowed overall in March. The credit spreads of weakly qualified LGFV bonds were at historically high levels since 2015, of which the percentiles of the credit spreads of the 3-year and 5-year AA-rated LGFV bonds both exceed 90%. Looking ahead, the State Council’s reform plan for financial institutions in March stipulated that the authority to review the issuance of corporate bonds will be transferred from the National Development and Reform Commission to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which may affect the issuance of corporate bonds in the short term before the The net financing of LGFV bonds increased, and a large number of real estate bonds were overdue ——March 2023 China's corporate bonds market operation report Author: Cao Xiaojing, Jian Jiangping E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets April 16th, 2023 improvement of relevant supporting policies. In terms of LGFV bonds, under the bac