Reforms to Boost Long-Term Growth in the People’s Republic of China推动中华人民共和国长期增长的改革March 2023NO. 2023-02ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKObservations and Suggestions观察与建议 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKReforms to Boost Long-Term Growth in the People’s Republic of China推动中华人民共和国长期增长的改革 Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)© 2023 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.orgSome rights reserved. Published in 2023. ISBN 978-92-9270-056-0 (print); 978-92-9270-057-7 (electronic)Publication Stock No. BRF230062-2DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/BRF230062-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions and terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess.This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material.Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish to obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use the ADB logo.Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda.Note: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars and “CNY” to the yuan. 政府间组织3.0版知识共享许可协议（CC BY 3.0 IGO）© 亚洲开发银行20236 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines （菲律宾马尼拉）电话 +63 2 8632 4444; 传真 +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org部分版权所有。2023年出版。ISBN 978-92-9270-056-0（印刷版）；978-92-9270-057-7（电子版）出版物库存号：BRF230062-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/BRF230062-2本出版物中所述为作者个人观点，并不代表亚洲开发银行（亚行）、亚行理事会或其所代表的政府的观点和政策。 亚行不担保本出版物中所含数据的准确性，而且对使用这些数据所产生的后果不承担任何责任。本出版物中提及特定公司或厂商产品并不意味着亚行认为其优于未提及的类似性质的公司或厂商产品，并予以认可或推荐。在本出版物中指称或引用某个特定版图或地理区域时，或使用“国家”一词时，不代表亚行意图对该版图或区域的法律地位或其他地位做出任何评判。本出版物采用“政府间组织3.0版知识共享许可协议”（CC BY 3.0 IGO）http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/。使用该出版物中的内容即表示同意遵守上述许可协议的条款。有关署名、翻译、修改和权限的信息，请参阅https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess中的规定和使用条款。本知识共享许可不适用于本出版物中非亚行版权的资料。如某资料另有来源，请联系该资料的版权所有人或出版人获得复制许可。亚行对因使用此类资料所产生的任何索赔不承担责任。如对本出版物内容有任何疑问或建议，或希望就不适用于上述条款的预期用途获得版权许可，或申请亚行标识的使用许可，请联系pubsmarketing@adb.org。亚行出版物勘误信息可在以下网页查询：http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda。注：在本出版物中，“＄”表示美元，“CNY”表示人民币。译文声明为扩大读者范围，特将本出版物由英文翻译为中文。亚洲开发银行（亚行）尽力确保翻译的准确性，但英语是亚行的官方语言，因此，本出版物的英文原版是唯一合法的（即官方的和经授权的）文本。任何对本出版物内容的引用，必须以其英文原版内容为准。 1Reforms to Boost Long-Term Growth in the People’s Republic of China推动中华人民共和国长期增长的改革Summary概要• Economic growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) moderated in the past decade, even before the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. A critical question is to which level of gross domestic product (GDP) growth the country will return after COVID-19 and what its long-term growth prospects are, given its rapidly aging society, the continued dependence of growth on investment, and a changed international environment.过去十年，中华人民共和国（中国）经济增长有所放缓，甚至早在新型冠状病毒疫情暴发前就出现了趋缓迹象。鉴于中国社会快速老龄化、增长对投资持续依赖及国际环境发生改变等因素，一个关键问题浮出水面：中国国内生产总值（GDP）增长在后疫情时代将恢复到何水平？其长期增长前景又将如何？• According to Asian Development Bank estimates, the PRC’s potential GDP growth could average 5.3% in 2020–2025 before gradually declining to 2.0% in 2036–2040. Capital and total factor productivity (TFP) are the major contributors to future economic growth. Meanwhile, a shrinking working-age population will increasingly weigh on growth, while the contribution of human capital to growth is expected to be comparatively small.据亚洲开发银行估算，2020—2025年间，中国年均潜在GDP增速可达5.3%，随后将逐步降到2036—2040年间的2.0%。资本和全要素生产率是未来经济增长的主要推动力。但劳动年龄人口规模不断减少将使增长进一步承压，预计人力资本对增长的贡献则相对较小。• This brief suggests a series of reforms to increase potential growth. To address the rapid demographic aging issue, mitigating the impact of a smaller labor force is key.