全球策略：如何寻找黄金机遇–黄金催化剂的分析及回顾

策略 | 2023年2月9日 建银国际证券 1 自2022年10月以来，黄金一直处于上升趋势，从1631上涨到2023年2月初的1960，涨幅约20%。这一上升趋势比市场多数人预期的要快一些，而且是在全球市场全面反弹的背景下出现的。 黄金有机会回到或超过2075美元的历史高点吗？市场和预测者的观点在这个时间点上有些分歧。 预测者的共识观点相对保守；季度和年度预测中值均显示，金价将在1854美元每盎司见顶（现货价格此前已超过该水平） 。期货市场则更为乐观，预计黄金上升趋势维持到2026年，并且在2025年内创新高。 黄金催化剂 有许多正在进行的和潜在的催化剂可能会在中短期内影响黄金。值得关注的潜在催化剂包括:  利率和货币政策：利率与黄金有明显的负相关关系，因为黄金是一种非利息收益资产。降息周期可能是金价的积极催化剂，但这预计要到2023-2024年底才能实现。  自1981年以来，在过去8次超过3个月的降息周期中，黄金有6次实现了正回报。  除了QE2之外，金价在4轮量化宽松中的3轮中出现大幅上涨。  通胀：黄金是一种不完美的通胀对冲工具，美国CPI和黄金价格表现出一种松散的正相关关系。  2023年通货膨胀将趋于下降，但仍将维持在相对较高的水平。  通胀预期比通胀本身更接近黄金。通胀预期风险大体平衡。  美元：美元走软历来支持金价。我们预计2023年美元将走弱。  自1981年以来，总共有16年美元指数走弱，其中13年金价上涨，年平均回报率为13.6%。  相比之下，在美元指数走强的26年里，黄金价格有17年下跌，平均年回报率为-2.1%。  中国需求复苏：作为全球最大的黄金市场，2022年中国黄金需求疲软对金价不利，金价应该很快就会逆转。  黄金需求可能将受益于消费支持政策和总体宏观反弹。  央行需求：央行黄金需求与金价之间的历史相关性较弱，表明央行的购买可以支撑需求，但在历史上不是金价走势的主要驱动因素。但在2022年，央行需求升至总需求的 24%，超过过去10年平均比率的一倍。在这种水平，央行需求对黄金价格的影响力将变得更加重要。  避险需求：从历史上看，黄金通常在波动性和不确定性上升的时期表现良好。  2023年地缘政治风险仍然较高，可能成为金价上涨的催化剂。  历史上的冲突显示，黄金价格在冲突爆发的起点的反应往往较大，但影响通胀也是短暂的。 在短期内，市场可能会遇到阻力，并随着黄金向历史高位靠近而出现一些回调。超预期鹰派的进展（例如通胀超预期）可能是黄金回调的催化剂，也可能创造好的加仓机会。根据历史经验， 2022 年初以来观察到的黄金与股票之间的高度正相关也不会长期持续。 从中长期的角度来看，上述因素可能会决定金价能否达到历史新高。在基准情景下，宏观大环境有利于金价在未来几年创出新高，本轮最终的周期峰值可能出现在美联储在2023年底或2024年转向降息之后。 全球策略 如何寻找黄金机遇 – 黄金催化剂的分析及回顾 宋林 (852) 3911 8267 lynnsong@ccbintl.com 赵文利 (852) 3911 8279 cliffzhao@ccbintl.com STRATEGY | 9 February 2023 CCBI SECURITIES 2 Analyst certifications: The author(s) of this document, hereby declare that: (i) all of the views expressed in this document accurately reflect his/her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner; (ii) no part of any of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this document; and (iii) he/she receives no insider information/non-public price-sensitive information in relation to the subject securities or issuers which may influence the recommendations made by him. The author(s) of this document further confirm that (i) neither he/she nor his/her respective associate(s) (as defined in the Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission issued by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) has dealt in/traded or will deal in /trade the securities covered in this document in a manner contrary to his/her outstanding recommendation, or neither he/she nor his/her respective associate(s) has dealt in or traded in the securities covered in this document within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this document or will so deal in or trade such securities within 3 business days after the date of issue of this document; (ii) neither he/she nor his/her respective associate(s) serves as an officer of any of the companies covered in this document; and (iii) neither he/she nor his/her respective associate(s) has any financial interests in the securities covered in this document. Disclaimers: This document is prepared by CCB International Securities Limited. CCB International Securities Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary of CCB International (Holdings) Limited (“CCBIH”) and China Construction Bank Corporation (“CCB”). Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but CCB International Securities Limited, its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively “CCBIS”) do not guarantee, represent and warrant (either express or implied) its completeness or accuracy or appropriateness for any purpose or any person whatsoever. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. CCBIS seeks to update its research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent it from doing so. Besides certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate according to the analyst's judgment. Forecasts, projections and valuations are inherently speculative in nature and may be based on a number of contingencies. Readers should not regard the inclusion of any forecasts, projections and valuations in this document as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of CCBIS that these forecasts, projections or valuations or their underlying assumptions will be achieved. Investment involves risk and past performance is not indicative of future results. Information in this document is not intended to constitute or be construed as legal, financial, accounting, business, investment, tax or any professional advice for any prospective investors and should not be relied upon in that regard. This document is for informational purposes only and should not be treated as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any products, investments, securities, trading strategies or financial instruments of