天风证券公司报告「季报点评TF SECURITIES洋河股份（002304）证券研究报告2022年10月31日投资评级22Q3扣非归母净利22亿同增31%超预期，看好产品升级+渠行业食品饮料/白酒II道优化势能向上6个月评级买入（维持评级）当前价格131.97元■事件：公司发布2022年三季报。2022前三季度实现营收264.83亿元，目标价格元同增20.69%，归每净利润90.72亿元，同增25.78%，扣非后归母净利润88.43亿元，[同增29.1%。其中单Q3实现营收75.75亿元，同增18.37%，归母净基本数据利润21.78亿元，同塔40.45%，扣非后归母净利润22.01亿元，同增30.83%，A股总股本(百万股)1,506.99Q3业续超预期显示强劲产品及渠道势能。■收入端：公司2022前3季度实现营收264.83亿元，同增20.69%，其中流通A股股本(百万股)1,502.7122Q1-Q3分别实现营收130.26/58.82/75.75亿元，分别同增A股总市值(百万元)198,877.2123.82%/17.1%/18.37%，痘情之下公司维持稳定增长态势，改革成果逐步兑流遵A股市值(百万元)198,312 64现。渠道上公司积极调整经销商结构，推动营销组织架构调整，构建新型每股净资产(元）31.27厂商关系；产品上，继梦6、天之蓝均实现升级换代后，2022年公司进一资产负债事(%)23.04步推出海之蓝升级版，在品质、规格和形象上持续升级。海之蓝升级版目前来看，品质升级得到消费者持续认可，有望持续稳固公司塔基。一年内最高/量低元）195.18/120.22■费用端：22Q3公司期间费用率19.0%，同减1.23pct。其中，销售/管理/作者研发/财务费用率分别为13.95%/7.17%/0.42岁/-2.53%，+0.48/+0.52/-0.09/-2.14pct，其中销售费用率环比增加3.28pct。刘章明SAC热业证45编号：51130516063001分析师■利润端：22Q1-Q3公司毛利率分别为77.3%/65.51%/75.03%，分别同比+1.14/-4.31/-0.12pct。22Q1-Q3公司归母净利润分别为49.85/19.0B/21.78luthargmino/@tzq.com朱球联系人亿元，分别同增29.07%/6.07%/40.45%，其中22Q3扣非后归母净利润22.01亿元，同增30.83%；22Q1-Q3归母净利率分别为38.27%/32.44%/28.76%，zhulinbcfzq.com分别同比+1.55/-3.38/+4.52pct，扣非后归母净利率分别为37.6%/29.67%/29.06%，分别同增1.38/2.65/2.77pct，公司盈利水平有所恢复。股价走势■现金流及合同负债：22Q3公司经营活动产生现金流量净额34.98亿元，洋;河股9psxc同增3.46%，其中销售回款86.5亿元，同增7.71%。22Q3末合同负债81.73亿元，同增15.63亿元（+25.54%），环比增加2.64亿元（+3.34%）。现金-58流指标表现稳健，合同负债亮眼，体现公司良好经营质量。-10%-158■投资建议：梦6+自准出以来消费者认可度持续提升，省内布局基本完成，-20 延续品牌产品选代升级过程，重点布局省外市场，享受次高端改革红利。-25% 同时随着海天等一系列产品升级换代，渠道打法进一步优化，警加公司品30%2021-11牌力提升，公司二次改革成效有望进一步显现。我们预计公司22-24年归2022-C3Ic-t202母净利润分别为96/116/136亿元，对应PE分别为21/17/15X，维持买入资料系源：聚3势号评级，风险握示：疫情发复风险，渠道拓展不及预期，新品动销不及预期，宏观经济风险相关报告1《洋河股份-公司点评：22Q3预计实现扣非归母净利润20.22亿同增20%，改财务数据和估值革或效显现助力费健发展202020212022E2023E2024营业收入（百万元21,101.0624350.182022-10-1923.759.7534350.8340,406.542（洋河股份-半年报点浮：22-1归母净增长率(%)(8.76)20:1413,4515.4717.60利同增21.76%，产品持续升级，渠道改E即TA(百万元)10,763 902'805'ot7,507.5812,883,2315 587.7918,126.85革成效显现增势良好》2022-09-02归属丹公司净利润(百万元）7,482,239.6r.4.2411.618.8313,535.97《洋河股份-公司深度研究：二次创业率%)1.350.34E62820.9817.36梁道改革增厚经销商利润：产品送代稳EFS(元/股;4.97.4.936.377.719.05步占位次高端市场32022-05-20市盈率(P/E)25 5826.4920.7117.1214.58市净率(P/B)517.4.534.323.94355市前率(P/5)9.427.856.925.794.92EV.EEITDA303419.7112.055.R48.09密料来表：wind，天民证券研究所请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 天风证券公司报告丨季报点评TF SECURITiES财务预测摘要资产负消表(百万元)202020212022E2023E2024E利润表(百万元)202020212022E2023E2024E就资金7,2431925.955.8321,92.2821,058.9828.19872营业收入0'tot'tz25.350.3828.759.7834,350.8340.405,54应改质招及皮收账款6t5.1G790.231,670.781.121.365,851.956,255.408.196.548,847.6629020 019.269.42186:9392.53G5,L68.415654.147.985.271,575.52,986,431.9214,852.6916,8(3.0327,475.48255/17R,23H84售费用7,6/3.8)3,544.364,756553.73:.64.535.814,515131.331,214,241:4414,54.831.729.91.830:302.338:2.826.5LGT8E2'2849,764.6455,520.4560,187.6273,595.26肝发益用263.03258.46238.55304.15371.63长期股权投资29.5352.7432.7432.7438,74(8723)(990.15)(50.82)(62.09)(834.03)$2/66/5.815.3643542;42514资产/用减值级失5.45(4.43)在建工程223.47525.5C525.50525.5C525;501,267.65(721.21)2.977.1635:.79416.16无彩货产1,713.53±,679.661,523.621,557.651511,67投资净收益1.205.6590.61832.68961.99.a21.107,728697.8737$367.248.5901315.085.85)(450 74)0.000.000.00非流励资产合计16,628.1690'te08r15,584.5915,457.3814,95318营业和网6TS68'69.988.9312,814.341554.87,18.207.3153,866.2567,798.7075,205.0575,654.9988,548.4525.0420.7220.922:4B18.SAR0.c90.60.6.000:30营业外支出63,7734.794;9542.16应付属招及变付账款1.151.872,424.181.500.57.1.832.929.946.43.12,890.2713,533.4018,184.11其4,703.967,454.6126730.6422,718,429,457.602.504.322.433.613130.653.07.644.538.71流动资债合计5,55.858,928.7928,b31.2124,521.3831,851.18净润7,486.817,512829,819.6211,825.780.c66.040.c02000.202.355.135.375.959.43020c.oc0.c06.0c0.30白属手母公司净利润7,482.237.507.68.9,604.2411,618.8026'589'8T.729:395E4.05583.26635.66601,00每改收些（元）4.975.98.6.377.719.05非流动负资台计739.42584.09583.35635.60691.00负供合计15,396.6125,317.392,214.5725,156.9832,452.18(.4.93)(4ge)(2.77)(3.03)3.74主要财务比率202020212022E2023E2024E1,505.994,56.991.505.991,56,991505,39成长能力资本公积741.537E2.24782:24752.24782.24需业数人-8.70820. x13.4919 47k7.0537,243.414,250.1144,361.7248,654.5:54,101.811.37%0.528.28N21.3%-7.c5vt(1,067.39)(212;)(37.8)(238.51)属于要公司利1.358.0343750N70.85:7.股东权益合计38,469.6542.481.3145,990.4850,498.01Z 960'99利能力奥售和股乐权总总处53,86.2667,798.7075,205.0575,654.9988,548.45T2 27%75.52%71.50N7429N75:8净摔3s; 40829.e2533.363 (2W93./5sROE19.64N174723.80N23.02%24.31§RCCBL 35%76.88682.851439.91%258.414限金流量表（百万元）202020212022E2023E2024E7.484.617,512.829,504.2411,618.8513,635.97图产负要率28.52%:37.34x38.89433 25N26.655782.85753.74T17.CB717.02717,08-18.83)49:31%47.6945,65%-207财竞变用3673.8c(6c9.50)(592 09;(804.36)流动化累2.542.01.2.382.452.31极资势失(1.2nser)(t9 :e)(sce)(968 93;(nt'Leal)适动比界1.511:31.31,5812(1,535.23).329.73.(27767)(13.742.05;24431营玩能力(381 31)2.582.47358.74(2K 5532.6439.5230.5233.933862经营活动强金流3,978.7915,314.1713,584.257,293.491.3,327.80孕能限轴军3.41.1.8)1.5/1.6f27.24-529.760.t9(52.24;34.900.350420.402.460.i9长期投资4.73.220.c00.00.0:0都象指标（元）4,441.42;,26369(515220)318 6524.184.9%6377.719.05投资活动限金流4,472.831.836.66(5,351,53)265.4158.782.6410.167.574.348.84:87.20407.55:554.:6683.02B05.30海政净资产25.5428.1950.523