GuangzhouTinciMaterialsTechnology(002709)EquityResearch·CompanyResearch·Battery1/7东吴证券（香港）请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分[Table_Main]3Q22Review：EarningswereinlinewithexpectationsandshipmentssawahighQoQgrowthBuy(Maintain)Forecast&Valuation2021A2022E2023E2024ERevenue(RMBmn)11,09125,67339,87546,957Growth(YoY%)169%131%55%18%Netprofit(RMBmn)2,2086,0467,5849,900Growth(YoY%)314%174%25%31%EPS(RMB)1.153.143.945.14P/E(X)36.6413.3810.678.17InvestmentThesisTinci'sQ3netincomeattributabletotheparentincreasedby89%YoYtoRMB1.45bn,inlinewithmarketexpectations.In3Q2022,thecompanyachievedrevenueofRMB6.07bn(+107.46%YoY,+16.32%QoQ),andnetincomeattributabletoparentofRMB1.45bn(+88.61%YoY,+3.25%QoQ).Intermsofprofitability,itrecordedaQ3grossmarginof36.17%(-7.31pctYoY,-5.89pctQoQ),netprofitmarginof23.97%(-2.4pctYoY,-3.03pctQoQ).Thecompany'sgrossmargindeclineinQ3wasmainlyduetotheimpactofpricereduction,andcostpertonincreasewithapricehikeoflithiumcarbonate.Tinci'sQ3electrolyteshipmentsincreasedbyabout50%QoQandnetprofitpertonwasaboutRMB12,000-13,000.Weprojectthecompanytoshipabout91,000tonsofelectrolytein3Q22,withaQoQgrowthofnearly50%.Ithasgeneratedshipmentsofmorethan210,000tonsduringQ1-Q3andshipmentsinQ4mayfurtherincreaseby30%QoQ,soweexpectitsannualshipmentsin2022toreach330,000tons,indicatingaYoYgrowthof130%+.Withthereleaseofnewproductioncapacity,weexpectits2023electrolyteshipmentstoreach500,000-600,000tons,maintainingahighgrowthof60%+.Intermsofprofitability,weprojectTinci'selectrolyteQ3profitpertonwilldropby25%QoQtoRMB12,000-13,000,mainlyduetoelectrolytepricesfallingalongwithsolventandadditivespricefalling.Moreover,therewasaprovisionforequityincentiveexpensesofRMB60mnin3Q22;ifaddedback,thecompany'sprofitspertonwillbeaboutRMB13,500,andtheannualprofitspertonarestillexpectedtomaintainataboutRMB14,000-15,000.Asthecompanyobtainedanobviouscostadvantage,weexpectitsprofitspertonwillmaintainatRMB11,000+in2023withthegradualreleaseofnewproductioncapacityofLIFSIandadditivestohedgetheimpactofthepricedropofLiPF6.Theironphosphateshipmentsrosesignificantlyin3Qandnetprofitpertonremainedhigh.Weprojectthecompanytoship9,000-10,000tonsofferricphosphatein2022Q3,upby10%-20%QoQ,mainlythankstothereleaseofnewferricphosphateproductioncapacityfromOctober2022.Withthereleaseofnewcapacity,weexpectitsannualironphosphateshipmentswillbenearly50,000tonsin2022.Intermsofprofitability,weforecastitsprofitpertontobenearlyRMB7,000-8,000asthesupplyofironphosphateremainedatightbalanceinQ3.Also,thelithiumironphosphateascathodematerialoflithiumbatteriesbegantocontributeprofits,andironphosphate+lithiumironphosphatebroughtatotalprofitofmorethanRMB800mninQ3.Thelithiumironphosphatesectorisexpectedtoremainhighprofitpertonallyearround..EarningsForecast&Rating:Wemaintainthecompany’s2022-2024netincomeforecastofRMB6.05/7.58/9.9bn,withaYoYgrowthof174%/25%/31%andcorrespondingtoaPEof13x/11x/8x.AsTinciisaleaderintheelectrolyteindustry,wegivea2023PEof20xandatargetpriceofRMB78.8,maintaininga"BUY"rating..Risks:Lower-than-expectedsalesofelectricvehicles;sharpfluctuationofmaterialprices.[Table_PicQuote]PricePerformance[Table_Base]MarketDataClosingprice(RMB)42.0052-weekRange(RMB)36.26/167.87P/B(X)7.46Freefloatingmarketcap(RMBmn)58,018.95Totalmarketcap(RMBmn)80,919.56BasicDatadataBVPS(RMB)5.63Liabilities/assets(%)52.11TotalIssuedShares(mn)1,926.66Sharesoutstanding(mn)1,381.40Relatedreports《天赐材料(002709)：2022年中报点评：业绩符合市场预期，下半年排产拐点明确》2022-08-25《天赐材料(002709)：股权激励方案落地，绑定员工共享高成长》2022-08-09SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticularitsemployeesDuohongZeng(曾朵红),QiaoyanRuan(阮巧燕)andSiyaoYue(岳斯瑶).[Table_Author]25November2022ResearchAnalystRuibinChen(852)39823212chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk 天赐材料（002709）证券研究报告·公司深度·电池2/7东吴证券（香港）请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分[Table_Main]2022年三季报点评：业绩符合市场预期，出货环比高增长买入（维持）盈利预测与估值2021A2022E2023E2024E盈利预测与估值2021A2022E2023E2024E营业总收入（百万元）11,09125,67339,87546,957同比169%131%55%18%归属母公司净利润（百万元）2,2086,0467,5849,900同比314%174%25%31%每股收益-最新股本摊薄（元/股）1.153.143.945.14P/E（现价&最新股本摊薄）36.6413.3810.678.17投资要点Q3归母净利14.54亿元，同增89%，业绩预告中值，符合市场预期。2022年Q3公司实现营收60.65亿元，同比增加107.46％，环比增长16.32%；归母净利润14.54亿元，同比增长88.61%，环比增长3.25％，扣非归母净利润13.68亿元，同比增长83.8%，环比-1.71%。此前公司预告归母净利13.5-15.5亿元，本次业绩处于业绩预告中值，符合市场预期。盈利能力方面，Q3毛利率为36.17%，同比-7.31pct，环比-5.89pct；归母净利率23.97%，同比-2.4pct，环比-3.03pct；Q3扣非净利率22.56%，同比-2.9pct，环比-4.14pct。公司Q3毛利率环比下降，主要系降价影响，且单吨成本受碳酸锂价格上涨影响。Q3电解液出货环增40%、单吨净利约1.2-1.3万元/吨。我们预计公司2022Q3电解液出货约9.1万吨，环增近50%，表现亮眼，前三季度累计出货21万吨+，Q4有望环增30%+，我们预计2022全年出货达33万吨，同增130%+。随着新增产能释放，我们预计2023年电解液出货50-60万吨，维持60%+高增长。盈利方面，我们预计Q3单吨盈利1.2-1.3万元/吨，环降约25%，主要系电解液价格随溶剂及添加剂价格下降，且Q3计提约0.6亿元股权激励费用，若加回，对应公司单吨盈利约1.35万元/吨，全年看单吨盈利仍有望维持1.4-1.5万元/吨左右。公司成本优势明显，且随着LIFSI、添加剂等新增产能逐步释放，对冲六氟跌价影响，我们预计23年单吨盈利可维持1.1万元/吨+。Q3磷酸铁出货高增长，单吨净利维持高位。我们预计2022Q3磷酸铁出货0.9-1万吨，环比增10%-20%，主要系磷酸铁新增产能10月起释放。随着新增产能释放，我们预计磷酸铁全年出货近5万吨，盈利方面，Q3磷酸铁供给紧平衡维持，我们预计单吨盈利0.7-0.8万元左右，环比略降，叠加铁锂正极开始出货贡献利润，Q3磷酸铁及磷酸铁锂正极共贡献0.8亿元+利润，全年看铁锂板块单吨盈利有望维持高位。盈利预测与投资评级：我们维持公司2022-2024年归母净利润预期60.46/75.84/99.00亿元，同增174%/25%/31%，对