© GfK欧洲电子家电市场解析2022年上半年Charlie Cai 蔡凌GfK中国家电事业部总监 © GfK01热点事件对欧洲家电市场的影响22022年上半年消费者信心下降 © GfKCOVID-19供应链问题俄乌冲突通货膨胀Inflation is reaching an all timehigh. GDP forecasts are reviseddownwardsCOVID still affects people andbusiness but a little more freedomthan 2020 with OOH activitiesRaw material costs are quite high,manufacturing cost are increasing.Chip shortages.Shortages of FMCG goods. Risingenergy costs. People displacement.疫情+战争，家电零售市场面临前所未有挑战全球GDP增长从2021年6.1%，降到2022年预计3.6%Market Disruptions © GfK俄乌战争导致欧元区GDP增长率预计的大幅调低对GDP增长点位的修正，Jun22 vs. Dec21Source: oecd-economic-outlook-june-2022-presentation - OECD (oecd-ilibrary.org)欧元区GDP 2022:+2.6%(reduced from 4.3%) © GfK-80-40040801201602001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20通讯产品小家电IT消费电子大家电Source: Market Intelligence: Sales Tracking/weekly, calendar week 1 – 15, 2022俄罗斯: 在大量保值消费后市场迅速下滑，中国品牌份额提升1-Sep-22Sales value USD (NSP) growth rate vs week 1 in %Week 1 – 20 2022 | 俄罗斯Growth benchmarked vs week 1 2022Feb 24th–1stday of conflictBig ticket items are in highest demand – top items often >1,000$ in IT and Telco.MDA provides durability of the value gained from rubles.Sales value USD shares Week 1 – 20 2022 | 俄罗斯Week 7Week 10Week 1526%21%中国品牌份额28%31%Week 20 © GfK欧元区消费者信心下滑明显Source: OECD; Consumer Confidence: Amplitude adjusted, Long-term average = 100, Jan 2008 – Mar 2022; China: only May 2022 data available美国99.6欧元区102.195.6Jun 21 95.8vs. Jun 22State of Consumer Technology and Durables Webinar62018201920202021-25-20-15-10-5051015202520172022EU 27 – June 2022 消费者信心指数 © GfK欧洲和美国通货膨胀率上涨明显，土耳其、阿根廷、埃及通胀高企Source: Inflation annual % change IMF Data Mapper| WEO Apr 2022 World Economic Outlook (April 2022) - Inflation rate, average consumer prices (imf.org)EU Area: AT, BE, CY, DE, EE, ES, FI, FR, GR, IR, IT, LT, LV, LUX, Malta, NL, PT, SK, SIMiddle East & Central Asia: belt from Mauretania to Kazakhstan, incl. North Africa, Somalia, Georgia, Pakistan4.7%7.7%2.9%美国20212022F2023F0.3%5.3%2.3%欧元区9.8%11.2%8.0%拉美和加勒比13.2%12.8% 10.5%中东和中亚3.4%6.7%21.3%俄罗斯Inflation rates, average consumer prices (in % change) 5.5%6.1%4.8%印度0.9%2.1%1.8%中国2.0%3.8%3.2%东南亚2.8%3.9%2.7%澳洲 © GfKCosts of production & shipment still on very high levels thoughSource: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities | Shipping costs: https://fbx.freightos.com, https://www.freightos.com/freight-resources/coronavirus-updates/全球原油和海运成本虽有缓解，但还处于阶段性高位16-Nov-21MDA Global Strategic Insights8Shipping Costs all routes+3%Crude OilLithiumSteelEuropean factories do not produce the total product line of brandsPrices | growth rates vs previous year’s month+34%Jan-Jul 22+434%Jan-Jul 22-14%Jan-Jul 22-3%Jan-Jul 22-21%Jan-Jul 21Shipping North EuropeUS East Coast+40%July12, 22 vs July 2021Shipping Costs Asia North Europe-22%July12, 22 vs July 2021Lead Time China -> US63 daysJuly 2022Vs80daysDec 2021 © GfK能源批发价格上涨，至少两位数的增长7/05/20229战争影响欧洲能源价格上涨明显欧洲15国能源价格指数变化（2009年1月=100）欧洲家庭能源费用上限上升近700欧元 © GfKJan20Feb20Mar20Apr20May20Jun20Jul20Aug20Sep20Oct20Nov20Dec20Jan21Feb21Mar21Apr21May21Jun21Jul21Aug21Sep21Oct21Nov21Dec21Jan22Feb22Mar22Apr22May22MDA-0.5 1.6%1.2%0.1% -2.0 1.6% -0.5 0.7%0.9%0.2% -1.2 -3.6 -1.4 -0.1 3.5%5.2%4.0%7.3%6.3%6.9%7.3%8.0%7.5%6.7%8.1% 12.1 13.5 17.7 20.1欧洲大家电市场价格上升剧烈欧洲大白电9个产品均价变化走势| Average Price growth +/-% vs FY 20191-Sep-2210MDA 9 Average EURprice growth +/-% YoYFY 2019 ASP was used as benchmark354€ASP increase in 2021from Feb onwardsNew price levels established © GfK02全球及欧洲家电市场趋势变化上半年全球大小家电零售市场同时下滑Insert date11 © GfKSource: GfK Market Intelligence: Sales Tracking, International Coverage (excl. North America), USD (NSP) Value & growth 2022 vs 2021, CE includes Multifunctional Technical Devices and SDA includes Personal Diagnostics.销售额美元(NSP) in % / growth rate YoY in %B2C Consumer Market YTD: Jan-Jun 2022IT产品-5.2%小家电-6,4%消费电子-6.7%大家电含空调-2.6%10%21%43%8%1%15%2%办公产品-8.5%影像产品-12%通讯产品-6.4%410Bil. USD(-5.6%)Total sales value USD and growth% YTD 2022全球技术消费电子产品零售市场（不含北美）在高位基础上开始减速June 2022TCG Conference Deck Q2 2022 – Global Strategic Insights © GfKJan 22-Jun 22-5,78,57,7-9,6-4,8-14,22,6销售额同比增长率%GLOBAL (67) 监测市场不含北美区域销量占比%拉美中东&非洲发达亚太新兴亚太西欧、中东欧独联体Jan 22-Jun 2214,98,97,337,825,65,4全球拉美中东&非洲发达亚太新兴亚太西欧、中东欧独联体全球（不含北美）彩电市场：今年上半年销量同比延续下滑态势，中东&非洲成为销量唯一正增长区域 © GfKMarket Intellingence: Sales Tracking, Global MDA9 ex NA6/28/2022141432304455788911103333Jan 21-Jun 21Jan 22-Jun 22销售额美元%新兴亚太发达亚太拉美中东&非洲俄罗斯&乌克兰&哈萨克斯坦中东欧西欧654亿美元PRJ 82721 - RG 5357026 - RP 35928484 - ID 553793281销售额同比（美元）-2.2%640 亿美元-7%-1%7%11%8%-11%-2%大家电（不含空调）市场：在2021年高增长基数下呈现下跌态势，发达亚洲和西欧销售额下降 © GfK-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000Growth rate +/-week Jan-Jun 2022Sales Mio USD Jan-Jun 2022Sales Mio USD Jan-Jun 2022Growth rate +/-Jan-Jun 2022Size in valueGrowth in USD (NSP), Sales Value USDJan-Jun 2022 – MDA EU23烤箱冰箱洗衣机欧洲大家电上半年市场表现：嵌入式灶具企稳, 其他产品下滑Source: GfK Market Intelligence: Sales Tracking, comparison Jan-Jun 2022 to 2021; sales value USD of all tracked product groups for all