2022Q2财报点评：营收利润大超预期，降本增效持续推进

JD.com, Inc. (9618 HK) Equity Research·Company Research·Software Service (HS) 1 / 13 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 2Q22 Review: strong beat on both top line and margin, with disciplined cost control and efficiency improvement Buy (Maintain) Forecast & Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue (RMB mn) 951592.15 1057630.51 1220190.11 1396219.26 Growth (YoY %) 28% 11% 15% 14% Non-GAAP Net profit (RMB mn) 17207.45 20854.17 28338.54 34545.11 Growth (YoY %) 2% 21% 36% 22% Non-GAAP EPS (RMB) 5.51 6.68 9.07 11.06 P/E (X) 35.16 29.01 21.35 17.51 Investment Thesis ◼ Strong beat on revenue and profit: In 2Q22, JD achieved sales of Rmb267.6bn (+5.4% yoy) and non-GAAP net income of Rmb6.5bn (+41.3% yoy), beating the Bloomberg consensus of Rmb261.7bn and Rmb4.41bn. ◼ Solid growth of all segments with logistics revenue beat. JD’s net product revenue increased by 2.9% yoy, thanks to the diversification of 3P merchants as well as online and offline layout. Marketplace and marketing revenue beat Bloomberg consensus, thanks to the 6.18 Grand Promotion. Logistics and other service revenue reached Rmb20.7bn (+37.8% yoy), with an OP margin of 0.1% (+2.5pct qoq). We expect steady growth of logistics business in 2H22 after the acquisition of Deppon in July. ◼ Ongoing category expansion of general merchandise & strong resilience of consumer staples. In 2Q22, JD's core 3C and home appliances category reported flattish revenue yoy of Rmb136.6bn (vs. Bloomberg consensus of Rmb134.2bn), while general merchandise revenue grew by 7.8% yoy to Rmb89.4bn (vs. Bloomberg consensus of Rmb92.4bn). The category expansion of self-operated business began to bear fruit, shifting its focus from low-frequency & large-volume electrics to high-frequency & low-ASP FMCG. ◼ Continued cost saving and efficiency improvement led to meaningful increase of OP margin. In 2Q22, fulfillment cost grew by 11.3% yoy to Rmb16.3bn with an expense ratio of 6.1% (+0.3pct yoy), mainly due to the rising cost during the pandemic. JD's G&A and S&M ratio decreased by 0.14pct and 0.64 pct yoy to 0.87% and 3.54% respectively in 2Q22. We expect JD's GP and NP margin to improve in 2H22. ◼ Improving user quality amid AAC growth miss. In 2Q22, JD's AAC grew by 9.2% yoy to 581mn, +0.3mn qoq (significantly lower than Bloomberg consensus of 17mn). JD focused on user quality and actively adjusted its user acquisition strategy. By July 2022, the number of JD PLUS members exceeded 30 million and we expect JD to maintain high-quality growth within its core retail clients. ◼ Earnings Forecast & Rating: To reflect more intense competition as well as JD’s strong sales resilience and cost savings in 2022, we modify JD’s adjusted EPS forecasts from Rmb6.5/10.3/15.2 to Rmb6.7/9.1/11.1 in 2022-2024, indicating P/E of 29.0x/21.3x/17.5x. We maintain the "Buy" rating. ◼ Risks: Merchandise quality risk, supply chain expansion risk, macroeconomic risk. [Table_PicQuote] Price Performance [Table_Base] Market Data Closing price (HKD) 221.80 52-week Range (HKD) 161.90/359.20 P/B (X) 3.44 Market Cap (HKD mn) 597,887.21 Basic Data data BVPS (HKD) 64.45 Liabilities/assets (%) 54.50 Total Issued Shares (mn) 3,123.50 Shares outstanding (mn) 2,695.61 [Table_Report] Related reports 《京东集团-SW(09618.HK:)：2022Q2财报前瞻：强势品类保证业绩增长，盈利能力保持稳健》 2022-07-13 《京东集团-SW(09618.HK:)：2022Q1财报点评：营收利润超市场预期，未来利润率提升可期》 2022-05-18 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Soochow Research Institute, and in particular its employees Liangwei Zhang (张良卫) and Jiaqi Zhang (周家琦). [Table_Author] 28 September 2022 Research Analyst Ruibin Chen (852) 3982 3212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk -45%-38%-31%-24%-17%-10%-3%4%11%18%2021/08/252021/12/242022/04/242022/08/23JD.comHSI 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·Error! Unknown document property name. 2 / 13 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 2022Q2财报点评：营收利润大超预期，降本增效持续推进 买入（维持） 盈利预测与估值 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营业总收入（百万元） 951592.15 1057630.51 1220190.11 1396219.26 同比 28% 11% 15% 14% 归属母公司净利润（百万元） 17207.45 20854.17 28338.54 34545.11 同比 2% 21% 36% 22% Non-GAAP净利润（百万元） 17207.45 20854.17 28338.54 34545.11 同比 2% 21% 36% 22% 每股收益-最新股本摊薄（元/股， Non-GAAP） 5.51 6.68 9.07 11.06 PE（现价&最新股本摊薄，Non-GAAP） 35.16 29.01 21.35 17.51 投资要点 ◼ 营收和利润大超预期：公司二季度收入2676亿元，同比增长5.4%；实现Non-GAAP 归母净利润65亿元，同比增长41.3%，彭博一致预期分别为2617亿元和44.1亿元，均超市场预期。 ◼ 各项收入稳健增长，物流业务超预期增长：商品销售收入同比增长2.9%，3P商户多元化程度持续提高，线上线下布局持续推进；大促等因素推动下，广告收入超彭博一致预期；物流及其他服务收入208亿元，同比增长37.8%，物流经营利润率0.1%，相比2022Q1提高2.5pct，7月获得德邦收购权后，预计下半年物流收入增长势头稳定。 ◼ 日百品类仍在继续扩充，刚需商品消费韧性强：电子产品及家用电器净收入1366亿元，同比降低0.1%，彭博一致预期为1342亿元；日用百货商品销售收入为894亿元，同比增长7.8%，彭博一致预期为924亿元。公司自营业务扩品类成效显著，从低频、大体积的带电品类转向高频低客单价的百货商品。 ◼ 降本增效持续推进，运营效率显著提升：二季度履约费用同比增长11.3%至163亿元，履约费用率为6.1%，同比上升0.3pct，主要由于疫情所导致的履约成本升高。本季度管理费用率为0.87%，同比下降0.14pct；销售费用率为3.54%，同比下降0.64pct；预计下半年毛利率和净利率均将有所提升。 ◼ 用户质量不断提高，活跃用户数增长不及预期：2