环保行业深度报告：氦气：气体黄金进口依赖97.5%，国产替代加速，碳中和约束供应资源端重估

Equity Research·Industry Research·Environmental Protection Environmental Protection Industry Research 1 / 15 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] Geopolitical risks speed up helium domestic substitution; Carbon neutral policies limit helium supply, leading to asset revaluation Outperform (Maintain) Investment Thesis ◼ Event: Since the outbreak of international geopolitical conflict in March 2022, helium prices have risen rapidly. In June 2022, Russia issued an export ban on inert gases, triggering unprecedented concerns about helium supply around the world. Helium prices in China rose by more than 300% to 420-460 rmb/m³. ◼ Helium price in China exceeded 400 rmb/m³ amid the geopolitical conflict. Reviewing helium price from 2017, we found that the prices of high-purity tube bundle helium in China generally ranged from 100 to 200 rmb/m³. The international geopolitical conflict in March 2022 triggered unprecedented concerns about helium supply around the world. ◼ Helium is strategic resource known as “gas gold”. The helium production industry is highly concentrated. Helium is widely used in aerospace, semiconductor, cutting-edge scientific research and other areas. Foreign countries have attached great importance to the protection of helium resources and strategic reserves for a long time. Global helium production is highly concentrated: the top three helium producers include the United States (49%), Qatar (30%) and Algeria (9%), and CR3 reached 88% in 2021. Helium monopoly countries have clear restrictions on helium export and helium-making equipment. ◼ Chinese Demand: Leading-edge research & high-end manufacturing drive the steady growth of helium demand. In 2020, helium consumption in China fell by 6.4% YoY to 21.25 million m³ due to the pandemic outbreak, while the CAGR of helium consumption reached 5.7% during 2015-2020. The annual helium consumption volume remains at >20 million m³ since 2017. Controlled atmosphere (optical fiber, semiconductor, photovoltaic, etc.) and low-temperature applications (nuclear magnetic resonance, low-temperature superconductivity, national defense and military, etc.) are the main applications of helium, accounting for 56% and 23% of total demand respectively. Amid continuous development of high-tech industry in China, helium demand will grow steadily. ◼ Chinese Supply: 95% of helium used in China is imported. Exploitation of high-quality gas field is in urgent need. In 2020, China imported and produced 20.76 and 0.53 million m³ of helium respectively. The import mainly came from Qatar (82%), the United States (9%) and Australia (8%). China’s helium resources are scarce and only account for 2% of the world's total helium. The Hotan River gas field in the Tarim Basin is the first extra-large helium-rich gas field in China. Exploitation of high-quality gas field is in urgent need. ◼ The replacement of importation with domestic production accelerates and Carbon neutral policies restrain helium production, reinforcing the importance of resource barriers. Technology of helium production, storage and transportation is relatively mature overseas. However, in China, large-scale extraction of helium-poor natural gas is still costly, and core equipment for liquefied helium storage and transportation still requires improvement. The gap between domestic and overseas helium technology gradually narrows, and carbon neutrality constraints amplify supply-side barriers. LNG companies produce helium as by-product without any material cost, and only bears the fixed manufacturing cost. As per our estimate, when the helium price reaches 100/200/300/400 rmb/m³, the gross profit margin of helium production from BOG projects can be 79.2%/89.6%/93.1%/94.8%, respectively. ◼ We recommend companies that deploy BOG helium extraction with edge on gas sales. 1) Jovo Energy plans to deploy LNG sources from both land and sea, and hydrogen & helium sources in Szechwan. Jinhong Gas locks overseas gas sources with abundant helium reserves, and has significant first mover advantages. 2) Electronic special gas leaders Kaimeite Gases & Huate Gas; Shuifa Energas Gas with layout of helium production from BOG; Helium-making equipment supplier Shudao Equipment & Technology. ◼ Risks: Sharp fluctuation of Helium prices; Fewer-than-expected R&D milestones; Intensified market competition. [Table_PicQuote] Industry Performance [Table_Report] Related reports 《可再生能源利好政策密集释放，REITs扩募规则落地，环保优质运营资产迎价值重估》 2022-06-05 《 REITs扩募规则正式落地，环保优质运营资产有望优先受益迎价值重估》 2022-06-04 《江西省落实水价新政迎提价周期，水务资产回报确定价值重估 》 2022-06-02 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Soochow Research Institute, and in particular its employees Li Yuan(袁理),Yixuan Ren(任逸轩), and Ziyao Zhu(朱自尧). [Table_Author] 12 August 2022 Research Analyst Ruibin Chen (852) 3982 3212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk -27%-22%-17%-12%-7%-2%3%8%13%18%2