热轧卷板市场周报：产量&库存继续下滑，热卷或震荡偏强

产量&库存继续下滑，热卷或震荡偏强「2022.8.5」作者：陈一兰期货投资咨询证号：Z0012698热轧卷板市场周报联系电话：0595-36208239关注我们获取 更 多 资 讯瑞达期货研究院业务咨询添加客服 目录1、周度要点小结2、期现市场3、产业情况 3来源：瑞达期货研究院「周度要点小结」本周热轧卷板期价区间整理。国常会部署进一步扩需求举措，推动有效投资和增加消费，继续提振市场信心，但周中国际油价大幅走弱拖累大宗商品价格，另外热卷库存虽维持下降，但整体需求表现欠佳，期现货价格陷入整理。下周热卷期价或震荡偏强。供应端，本期热卷周度产量继续下滑，产能利用率降至76%附近，整体好于市场预期。需求端，热卷厂内库存与社会库存继续下滑，但随着前期现货价格的上涨，终端接货意愿逐步走弱，持续上涨略显乏力。最后，国际形势不稳，但国内宏观面仍向好，稳增长一揽子政策措施还有发挥效能空间。技术上，HC2210合约日线MACD 指标显示DIFF与DEA低位反弹；BOLL指标显示上轨与下轨开口缩小，期价测试中轴压力。操作上建议，回调择机短多，止损参考3880。 4「期现市场情况」本周期货价格震荡偏强本周，HC2210合约震荡偏强。本周，HC2210合约走势强于HC2301合约，5日价差为101元/吨，周环比+30元/吨。图1、热轧卷板主力合约收盘及持仓量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图2、热轧卷板跨期套利来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001000000350037003900410043004500470049005100530055002021-10-182021-10-282021-11-092021-11-192021-12-012021-12-132021-12-232022-01-052022-01-172022-01-272022-02-152022-02-252022-03-092022-03-212022-03-312022-04-142022-04-262022-05-112022-05-232022-06-022022-06-152022-06-272022-07-072022-07-192022-07-29HC2210合约收盘价与持仓量持仓量oi收盘价close0204060801001201401601802002022-01-202022-01-272022-02-102022-02-172022-02-242022-03-032022-03-102022-03-172022-03-242022-03-312022-04-112022-04-182022-04-252022-05-052022-05-122022-05-192022-05-262022-06-022022-06-102022-06-172022-06-242022-07-012022-07-082022-07-152022-07-222022-07-292022-08-05HC2210-HC2301合约价差 5「期现市场情况」本周上期所热卷仓单增加，前20名持仓净空减少8月5日，上海期货交易所热卷仓单量为17131吨，周环比+16541吨。8月5日，热卷期货合约前二十名净持仓为净空69732张，较上一周+18243张。图3、上期所热轧卷板仓单日报来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图4、热轧卷板期货合约前二十名净持仓来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院0500001000001500002000002500003000002020-01-022020-02-052020-03-022020-03-262020-04-222020-05-212020-06-162020-07-142020-08-072020-09-022020-09-282020-10-302020-11-252020-12-212021-01-152021-02-102021-03-152021-04-092021-05-102021-06-032021-06-302021-07-262021-08-192021-09-142021-10-192021-11-122021-12-082022-01-042022-01-282022-03-022022-03-282022-04-252022-05-242022-06-202022-07-14库存期货:热轧卷板（吨）-100000-80000-60000-40000-20000020000400004000004500005000005500006000006500007000007500008000002021-12-232021-12-302022-01-072022-01-142022-01-212022-01-282022-02-112022-02-182022-02-252022-03-042022-03-112022-03-182022-03-252022-04-012022-04-122022-04-192022-04-262022-05-062022-05-132022-05-202022-05-272022-06-062022-06-132022-06-202022-06-272022-07-042022-07-112022-07-182022-07-252022-08-01热卷期货合约前20名净持仓净持仓（右）多头持仓空单持仓 6「期现市场情况」本周现货价格上调8月5日，上海热轧卷板5.75mm Q235现货报价为3990元/吨，周环比+40元/吨；全国均价为4049元/吨，周环比+68元/吨。本周，热卷现货价格强于期货价格，5日基差为-15元/吨，周环比+4元/吨。图5、全国各地区热轧卷板现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图6、热轧卷板主力合约期现基差来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院350040004500500055006000650070002021-01-042021-01-152021-01-282021-02-092021-02-262021-03-112021-03-242021-04-072021-04-202021-04-302021-05-172021-05-282021-06-102021-06-242021-07-072021-07-202021-08-022021-08-132021-08-262021-09-082021-09-222021-10-092021-10-212021-11-032021-11-162021-11-292021-12-102021-12-232022-01-062022-01-192022-01-302022-02-172022-03-022022-03-152022-03-282022-04-112022-04-222022-05-072022-05-192022-06-012022-06-152022-06-282022-07-112022-07-222022-08-04全国各地区热卷现货报价价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:杭州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:武汉元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:全国元/吨-20002004006008001000350037003900410043004500470049005100530055002021-11-032021-11-112021-11-192021-11-292021-12-072021-12-152021-12-232021-12-312022-01-112022-01-192022-01-272022-02-112022-02-212022-03-012022-03-092022-03-172022-03-252022-04-062022-04-142022-04-222022-05-052022-05-132022-05-232022-05-312022-06-092022-06-172022-06-272022-07-052022-07-132022-07-212022-07-29HC2210合约期现基差10月基差期货收盘价(10月交割连续):热轧卷板现货 7「上游市场情况」本周炉料铁矿石现货下调，焦炭现货价格持平8月5日，青岛港61%澳洲麦克粉矿报791元/干吨，周环比-36元/干吨。8月5日，天津港一级冶金焦现货报价2510元/吨，周环比+0元/吨。图7、铁矿石现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图8、焦炭现货价格来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院1000150020002500300035004000450050002020-01-022020-02-072020-03-092020-04-082020-05-122020-06-102020-07-102020-08-102020-09-082020-10-132020-11-112020-12-102021-01-112021-02-082021-03-162021-04-152021-05-192021-06-182021-07-192021-08-172021-09-152021-10-252021-11-232021-12-222022-01-212022-02-242022-03-252022-04-272022-05-302022-06-292022-07-28天津港一级冶金焦85105125145165185205225245500700900110013001500170019002021-01-042021-01-252021-02-222021-03-152021-04-062021-04-272021-05-212021-06-112021-07-052021-07-262021-08-162021-09-062021-09-292021-10-272021-11-172021-12-082021-12-292022-01-202022-02-172022-03-102022-03-312022-04-252022-05-192022-06-102022-07-012022-07-22青岛港铁矿石现货价格麦克粉(61%)普氏（62%Fe）(右)元/干吨美元/吨 8「上游市场情况」本周澳巴铁矿石发运总量增加据Mysteel统计，本期澳大利亚、巴西铁矿石发运总量为2653.5万吨，环比增加133.8万吨。7月25日-7月31日中国47港到港总量2285.7万吨，环比增加187.9万吨；中国45港到港总量2165.3万吨，环比增加114.5万吨；北方六港到港总量为1154.6万吨，环比增加218.5万吨。图9、澳巴铁矿石发运总量来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院图10、铁矿石港口库存来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001400160018002000220024002600280030002019-01-062019-02-172019-03-312019-05-122019-06-232019-08-042019-09-152019-10-272019-12-082020-01-192020-03-012020-04-122020-05-242020-07-052020-08-162020-09-272020-11-082020-12-202021-01-312021-03-142021-04-252021-06-062021-07-182021-08-292021-10-102021-11-21