1 wind wind wind wind wind wind 图表7：非制造业景气度恢复（%） 资料来源：wind，中航证券研究所 资料来源：wind，中航证券研究所 （5）制造业走弱说明经济复苏基础仍不牢固，稳增长仍需政策持续发力，下半年国内流动性无需担忧 同比正增长城市数合计北京上海广州成都南京武汉西安苏州郑州重庆深圳长沙昆明南宁东莞石家庄厦门合肥7月下旬8-7.2%-20.6%-10.5%-2.5%-34.3%81.8%2.9%-11.8%13.2%--2.0%-20.8%9.0%22.5%-6.8%-4.7%8.6%9.0%22.0%7月中旬6-13.1%-17.7%-35.0%-1.2%-11.6%-12.3%2.5%-20.6%-17.6%-28.8%-5.1%-5.0%5.7%12.6%-1.5%-4.3%8.6%8.8%9.6%7月上旬9-16.5%-32.8%-39.1%8.4%-6.5%-21.9%1.9%-32.8%-16.8%-32.6%0.6%-12.4%8.5%10.8%13.9%18.5%-7.2%1.0%4.7%6月下旬10-9.0%-31.5%-39.0%46.4%0.6%-10.7%5.5%-8.8%-3.5%-32.4%4.0%1.0%-1.9%2.0%15.4%72.6%-8.8%20.2%12.2%6月中旬7-11.0%-46.0%-47.1%96.3%-0.1%-7.5%2.4%-10.8%-13.0%-38.4%-2.0%9.2%-16.4%-12.5%2.5%13.3%-14.1%30.2%9.9%6月上旬6-19.4%-63.2%-61.6%82.8%-4.0%-11.5%-1.5%-9.5%-13.3%-41.5%-1.3%0.8%-8.8%-0.8%21.0%17.5%-11.2%27.3%12.6%5月下旬3-38.5%-86.9%-99.8%-2.5%-8.9%-23.5%-6.9%-17.5%-26.5%-50.2%-11.2%-5.0%-13.8%-23.8%1.1%-18.7%-18.4%30.5%7.6%5月中旬3-41.0%-77.2%-100.0%-22.9%-6.5%-20.7%-3.9%-14.9%-31.1%-63.7%-15.3%-14.3%-13.0%-15.1%1.0%-26.2%-14.6%24.7%9.8%5月上旬0-45.3%-67.4%-100.0%-33.8%-12.8%-38.2%-27.0%-27.9%-64.0%-88.0%-14.9%-17.4%-34.7%-27.6%-10.2%-40.0%-31.2%-16.4%-32.4%4月下旬2-38.6%-33.8%-100.0%-29.8%-12.3%-39.1%-31.4%-26.0%-71.9%-43.9%-7.7%-13.9%25.3%-19.2%-5.5%-26.4%-23.5%25.5%-48.8%4月中旬1-41.4%-13.3%-100.0%-50.8%-18.0%-42.9%-34.3%-47.9%-69.4%-41.3%-8.1%-17.1%-30.6%-25.6%-28.5%-39.7%-18.6%19.3%-33.7%4月上旬0-43.4%-24.0%-100.0%-28.7%-32.9%-57.4%-15.4%-30.3%-56.4%-50.9%-20.5%-31.1%-61.9%-45.6%-36.1%-51.3%-28.3%-9.5%-43.3%3月下旬0-38.1%-16.5%-83.8%-25.1%-2.3%-69.2%-13.7%-33.8%-50.3%-40.4%-19.4%-47.6%-61.1%-40.0%-25.1%-54.8%-11.1%-11.7%-23.9%3月中旬1-39.6%-19.2%-68.1%-31.7%-5.3%-45.2%-19.9%-57.3%-42.2%-25.3%-20.7%-87.5%-16.4%-52.8%-13.1%-79.1%-5.0%0.8%-4.0%3月上旬8-8.1%3.9%-5.0%-4.9%-10.1%3.6%-30.9%-16.4%-25.0%-11.3%5.4%-41.3%9.9%-9.1%6.6%-27.5%18.0%46.7%28.7%7月9-13.0%-24.1%-31.6%1.8%-15.5%-2.8%2.4%-23.0%-10.8%-8.8%-2.2%-11.9%7.6%14.4%3.0%3.0%2.7%5.9%10.6%6月8-13.1%-47.2%-49.2%71.5%-1.1%-9.9%2.2%-9.7%-9.9%-37.4%0.2%3.5%-9.1%-4.0%12.6%28.9%-11.4%25.5%11.6%5月1-41.5%-77.9%-99.9%-19.2%-9.6%-27.6%-12.9%-20.6%-40.7%-66.5%-13.9%-12.1%-21.8%-22.8%-3.5%-29.4%-21.5%10.2%-7.1%4月1-41.1%-24.0%-100.0%-36.4%-21.1%-46.7%-26.9%-34.7%-65.7%-45.5%-12.1%-20.5%-29.1%-30.4%-23.6%-39.7%-23.4%12.0%-42.0%3月3-28.2%-10.3%-54.0%-19.6%-4.9%-38.1%-19.6%-34.6%-38.7%-25.6%-11.1%-56.4%-24.7%-33.1%-9.4%-53.4%0.2%12.9%0.3%