2022年中期宏观经济与资本市场展望：向阳而生
敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 向阳而生 ——2022年中期宏观经济与资本市场展望 丁安华 招商银行首席经济学家 0755-83195106 dinganhua@cmbchina.com 谭 卓 招商银行研究院宏观经济研究所所长 0755-83167787 zhuotan@cmbchina.com 刘东亮 招商银行研究院资本市场研究所所长 0755-82956697 liudongliang@cmbchina.com 感谢田地、王欣恬、刘阳、王天程、柏禹含、苏畅、石武斌、赵宇对此文的贡献。 [Table_Date1] 深度报告 2022年6月29日 1 概 要 ◼ 展望下半年，美国通胀“高烧不退”，经济衰退概率上升。俄乌问题和疫后复苏或持续驱动能源和食品通胀，叠加粘性的服务通胀，使得全年美国通胀居高难下。美联储或紧盯2%的通胀目标“硬加息”，全年加息13次（325bp）。高通胀叠加财政货币“双紧缩”，对居民部门资产负债表构成压力，美国经济“硬着陆”概率随之上升。 ◼ 中国经济将处于二次探底后的修复阶段。其中最为关键的问题，是居民和企业预期疲弱，去杠杆交互作用，一定程度上陷入负向循环。三驾马车动能总体承压，结构分化。货物贸易将由高景气转为下行，对增长的拉动减弱。消费复苏动能疲弱。投资方面，房地产投资改善仍需时日，或对经济增长形成负向冲击；基建和制造业投资将成为重要发力点，对经济增长形成支撑。通胀方面，下半年PPI通胀有望稳步下行，但下行空间受到供求关系制约。CPI通胀总体温和，预计在9月达到年内高点，上行空间和节奏主要由猪价确定。全球“滞胀”向我国的传导构成最大的不确定性。 ◼ 宏观政策将在内外约束下积极作为。财政政策收支紧平衡加剧，将多措并举，通过存量资金填缺口，增量工具促发展，或提前下达/增发1万亿新增专项债限额，并通过提高专项债的使用效率，有效稳定经济大盘。货币政策外部约束进一步趋紧，中美利差全面倒挂，将力求在“以我为主”的同时兼顾内外平衡，发挥总量和结构双重功能，通过“宽信用”“降成本”促进居民和企业扩张资产负债表，畅通经济正向循环。 ◼ 大类资产配置策略建议积极布局权益资产并耐心等待。海外“滞胀”环境对股债资产而言均是显著不利的，股债双杀的局面还会持续一段时间；境内债券利率整体延续震荡但相对更偏上行风险，A股下半年的预期收益将得到改善，但实现趋势性转牛的条件仍不充分。对于下半年大类资产配置逻辑，认为包括A股、港股的收益预期将有所恢复，因此相比2021年底，可以适当增加资产配置整体的进攻性，并加大权益类资产的配置力度。建议投资者在股票和固收资产之间采取攻守平衡的配置思路，同时特别重视权益资产内部的结构性机会。具体资产配置建议如下：美元、港股（科技）中高配，黄金、中国国债、信用债、A股、A股的消费风格、成长风格、美股标配，人民币、欧元、美债中低配，A股的周期风格低配。 2 2022年中国经济预测表 指标 2019 2020 2021 2022F 实际GDP 6.1 2.3 8.1 4.2 社会消费品零售总额 8.0 -3.9 12.5 2.6 全社会固定资产投资 5.4 2.9 4.9 5.5 房地产投资 9.9 7.0 4.4 -0.5 基建投资 3.3 3.4 0.2 9.6 制造业投资 3.1 -2.2 13.5 6.7 出口（以美元计） 0.5 3.6 29.9 6.3 进口（以美元计） -2.7 -0.7 30.1 2.8 CPI* 2.9 2.5 0.9 2.2 PPI* -0.3 -1.8 8.1 5.5 社融 10.7 13.3 10.3 10.5 M2 8.7 10.1 9.0 11.2 人民币贷款 12.3 12.8 11.6 11.5 目标赤字率 2.8 3.6 3.2 2.8 新增地方政府专项债（万亿元） 2.15 3.75 3.65 3.65 降准预期 次数 3 3 2 0 幅度（bp） 150 50 100 0 利率 10年期国债* 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.9 1年期LPR:年末 4.15 3.85 3.85 3.70 5年期LPR:年末 4.80 4.65 4.65 4.35 上证综指* 2,920 3,128 3,500 3,300 美元兑人民币* 6.9 6.9 6.45 6.65 伦敦金（美元/盎司）* 1,394 1,770 1,800 1,850 注：以上经济指标除专门标注外，均为增速，单位为%；带*指标为年度均值 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 3 目录 一、宏观主线：美国“滞胀”与中国资产负债表行为 ·············· 1 （一）美国：“硬加息”与“硬着陆”············································ 1 （二）中国：资产负债表行为分化 ·················································· 6 二、中国经济：二次疫后修复 ··········································· 11 （一）进出口：增速放缓 ····························································· 11 （二）消费：弱势复苏 ································································ 12 （三）投资：结构分化 ································································ 14 （四）供给侧：缓慢修复 ····························································· 19 （五）通胀：PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛 ················································· 20 三、 财政货币：内外约束下积极作为 ································ 23 （一）财政政策：积极有为，拓展空间··········································· 23 （二）货币政策：“宽信用”支持“稳增长” ································· 27 四、资本市场：适度加强进攻，逢低布局权益 ····················· 31 （一）2022年上半年市场回顾：股票全面下跌，美债利率大涨 ··········· 31 （二）主要市场研判：A股逢低布局，利率上行风险加大··················· 33 （三）资产配置策略：适当增加进攻性，重视结构性机会 ·················· 41 4 图目录 图1：美国经济“滞胀”预期持续升温 ································································· 1 图2：中国经济增速下行预期走高 ······································································· 1 图3：5月美国CPI通胀超预期再创新高 ······························································ 2 图4：今年大宗商品价格涨幅创下历史之最··························································· 2 图5：俄乌冲突令全球供应链改善受阻 ································································· 2 图6：核心商品通胀趋于收缩 ············································································· 2 图7：住房和交通驱动美国核心服务通胀······························································ 3 图8：美国“工资-物价”螺旋尚未成型 ································································ 3 图9：美国就业供需缺口持续扩张 ······································································· 3 图10：疫情下美国贝弗里奇曲线上移 ·································································· 3 图11：美联储不断上调加息预测 ········································································ 4 图12：市场预计7月将再次加息75bp ································································ 4 图13：沃尔克“超调”政策利率“抗通胀” ························································· 5 图14：美联储资产负债表规模较疫前翻番 ···························································· 5 图15：美国仅有三次加息周期后未发生衰退 ························································· 6 图16：民主党大概率将失去对国会的控制 ···························································· 6 图17：美国工资增速和消费者信心创下新低 ························································· 6 图18：二季度美国PMI显著放缓 ······································································· 6 图19：青年失业率大幅上升 ·············································································· 7 图20：2020-2021各行业工资增速显著放缓 ························································· 7 图21：居民消费意愿低迷，储蓄倾向上升 ···························································· 7 图22：居民存贷款表现分化 ·············································································· 7 图23：居民-企业循环流向图 ············································································· 8 图24：今年居民消费和工业生产景气下行 ····················································
