Equity Research·Industry Research·Brokerage Sector Brokerage Industry Research 1 / 18 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] Brokers' earnings results were dragged down by proprietary trading; sector valuation is approaching an all-time low. Outperform (Maintain) Investment Thesis ◼ Brokers' earnings results were dragged down by proprietary trading as the stock market fell sharply. 1) Due to market fluctuations, 2022Q1 overall earnings results of listed brokerages were lower than expected. In 2021, all 42 listed brokers achieved net profit RMB198.4bn (+32%,YOY) and ROE 9.8%, progressing stably. On the contrary, in 2022Q1, the 42 listed brokers only achieved net profit RMB25.1bn (-43%,YOY) and ROE4.6%. 2) Brokers' overall earnings were dragged down by proprietary trading as stock market fell. In 2022Q1, the 42 listed brokers' income from brokerage, investment banking, asset management, net interest, and proprietary business was RMB32.6/13.9/ 11.2/53.3/-191.3bn, with YoY growth of -4%/+15%/-2%/ +5%/-106%. ◼ Wealth management business of brokers was under brief stress, while investment banking business of top brokers thrived. 1) Market trading volume saw a positive YoY growth, while market downturn negatively impacted sales agency business and wealth management business. Since 2022, the underperformance of the stock market, sharp decrease of fund value, lower investors' risk appetite and, redemption of equity fund put brokers' brokerage business in 2022Q1 under pressure. Also, brokers' wealth management business was impacted by underperformance of the equity market. 2) Investment banking business saw an obvious consolidation trend to leading companies as registration system reform deepens. In 2022Q1, the brokerage sector raised RMB179.8bn through IPO (+136%,YoY) and CR5 for IPO was 63%. As registration system reform deepens, market activities may become more active and top brokers with better pricing ability, channel ability, research strength and comprehensive strength will win out. ◼ The sector's overall valuation is approaching an all-time low. We expect the net profit of brokerage sector to decline by 7.55% YoY in 2022 as wealth management and proprietary business remain under pressure and investment banking business may contribute some incremental income. 1) Fluctuation of capital market will affect brokerage business while asset management business remain relatively robust. We expect the brokerage sector's net income from brokerage/ asset management business was RMB133.3/33.3bn, with a YoY growth -13.8%/+4.7%. 2) Investment banking business will grow steadily as a result of continued deepening of capital market reform. We expect the brokerage sector's net income from investment banking business to increase by 14.3% to RMB76.8bn. 3) Rapid development of the securities lending market sets a solid foundation for brokers’ role as intermediary in the capital market, but the index’s poor performance may impact investment returns. We expect the brokerage sector's net income from net interests and investment to be RMB79/67.3bn, +10.6%/-50% YoY. 4) We expect net profit of whole brokerage sector to decline by 7.6% YoY to RMB176.7bn, with net profit margin rising by 2.0pct to 40.0%. 5）Current valuation of the brokerage sector is close to an all-time low. Capital market reform is going to push up the industry ROE, thus industry valuation. ◼ Risks：Market activity wanes; Macro economy is worse than expected; Policy that encourages innovation is milder than expected; 4) External geopolitical tensions. [Table_PicQuote] Industry performance [Table_Report] Related reports 《证券行业: 2021年报点评及2022一季报前瞻：财富管理转型加速，看好龙头券商韧性》 2022-04-05 《α与β共振，积极关注券商板块》 2020-03-15 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by 胡翔 (Xiang Hu)，朱洁羽 (Jieyu Zhu), 葛玉翔 (Yuxiang Ge)，方一宇 (Yiyu Fang)，employees of Soochow Research Institute. [Table_Author] 25 May 2022 Research Analyst Hanyue Li (852) 3983 0823 kellyli@dwzq.com.hk -25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2021/05/062021/09/022021/12/302022/04/28Brokerage sectorCSI300 证券研究报告·行业点评·证券II 证券II行业点评报告 2 / 18 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 自营拖累业绩，估值逼近历史底部 增持（维持） 投资要点 ◼ 市场大幅下挫，自营交易拖累券商业绩：1）2022年一季度市场波动，上市券商整体表现低于预期：2021年及2022Q1，全行业共计42家上市证券公司合计实现营业收入分别为6487亿元（同比+23%）/995亿元（同比-29%），实现归母净利润分别为1,984亿元（同比+32%）/251亿元（同比-43%），年化ROE分别为9.8%/4.6%。相比于2021年业绩的稳中有进，2022Q1因市场波动，上市券商业绩表现整体承压。2）市场行情不佳，自营业务拖累券商整体业绩：42家上市券商2022Q1经纪收入/投行收入/资管收入/利息净收入/自营收入分别为326/139/112/533/ -1913亿元，同比增速分别为-4%/+15%/-2%/+5%/-106%。3)股票市场大幅波动，上市券商自营业务普遍承压：42家上市券商中，六家上市券商因自营收入大幅下滑致使2022Q1归母净利润转负，另仅六家券商自营业务收入同比正增长。 ◼ 财富管理短暂承压，头部券商投行亮眼：1）市场交易额同比增长，市场下行拖累代销业务及资管业务：2022Q1全市场股基成交额达632,713亿元，环比有所下降（-12%），同比涨幅仍然稳定增长（+7%）。2022开年以来二级市场表现低迷，基金净值大幅下跌，投资者风险偏好降低，权益类基金连续遭遇净赎回，拖