碳中和背景下德国能效政策研究报告

༐ዐࢅԝৠူࡔڤీၳአ֧ჺ৯Ԓߢ ዐڤీᇸᇑీၳࢇፕअӵ II ӲԨຫ௽ 澦ঌू९ݺݼਈ֢ڴЈް䬛Иչਅճܕߣߑஎՠҁ֢֢ڴ澧ंͧGIZͨЊਈ࢛ਈڴИ֨ݼѐ৅ਈ֨ޜЈՇ٢澞߫ࠃՠҁѪѴாऩݼঌݺ֢ڴͫљՃۅङ୍੽߶࣫Յ䬛ऩؘثਈঌङݺЊޑݒؘ҄૪߂ݼદূەӑչࠄ҆ू९澞৻଼৆֢ڴ׹չݷՇ؟֢֢ИީճܕથୂͧܔҘґࡈչࡺBMWKͨङحܶИڴਈٗݼҁুҁٗݼਈڴФ▲澞ИߧЈӀѽۨ߫ࠃুङӀѽ੧Ԉࡌ੽ڣڻוՠҁबҼֿ௅ݼਈڴ੊ؘИީͫوٴ࠿ҁুѫઑͫٗࠩ▲يڐंРԄࡶ૶֢Д澞ՖͫٗҁুاٴސՠҁङؒݼਈڴЈИ߫ࠃՠҁѪѴݼЊਈ࢛ਈڴҁОИவङՠҁ澞ސગঈڏू઎澝ਈԃࡶсݼਈ֨ڴдИڠԃԆ߄ސڴҁОߣߑஎՠҁ֢֢ڴͫߣߑޑؘЊߣߑ੧ۼސИһգڶਭਈИ؟֢ڐЈӀѽٗҁङ߫ࠃҁুٗݼਈڴ଒Иݐي澞 ਁ㹼ᯩ Иڴਈ࢛ЊਈݼՠҁѪѴ ୂ࢛ͧչਈࡺ৻଼৆֢ڴՉBMWiͨ׹ۺ Ԙч߉١ஆԚщ௛࡜ԧ૨14՚ ࠡсԄҸיⴃ׈1-15 ଽ৚͹100600 c/o ͧߣߑஎՠҁ֢֢ڴGIZͨ Torsten Fritsche Köthener Str. 2 ߥ߭10963 ஍ࣹ઎ઐъ ㆰࣥ朣 ͧߣߑஎՠҁ֢֢ڴGIZͨ ҁৱ͹ Wolfgang EichhammerͫFrederic Bergerͫू९۱ޏ঩৏Њӫנமیԍڗ Jan SteinbachͫNele Friedrichsenͫ Su-Min Choiͫ૏ݼ࢛ࣤչਈ࢛۫ऋू९۱ ճङ帖ࣣܕߎث؟શљЈЋ۟͹ Clemens RohdeͫElisabeth DütschkeͫJoachim SchleichͫHeike Bruggerԍڗͫیமנ঩৏Њӫޏू९۱ ᵜᣕ੺ޘ᮷ਇ⡸ᵳ؍ᣔDŽᡚ㠣ᵜ⹄ウᣕ੺ਁᐳࡽˈᗧഭഭ䱵ਸ֌ᵪᶴ઼⴨ޣ֌㘵ሩࠪ⡸⢙ѝᡰ⎹৺Ⲵᮠᦞ઼ؑ᚟䘋㹼ҶԄ㓶⹄ウоṨሩˈնнሩަѝᡰ⎹৺޵ᇩ৺䇴䇪Ⲵ↓⺞ᙗ઼ᆼᮤᙗڊԫօᖒᔿⲴ؍䇱DŽᵜࠪ⡸⢙ѝ⎹৺ࡠⲴཆ䜘㖁ㄉਁ㹼ᯩሶሩަ㖁ㄉ⴨޵ޣᇩ䍏䍓ˈᗧഭഭ䱵ਸ֌ᵪᶴнሩ޵ަᇩ᢯ᣵԫօ䍓ԫDŽᵜ᮷ԦѝⲴ㿲⛩䱸䘠нԓ㺘ငᢈᯩⲴ᜿㿱DŽ I ణ୤ ⡸ᵜ䈤᰾ .................................................................. II ⴞᖅ I 㕙⮕䈝 ................................................................... III 䀰ࡽ 4 ሬ䀰˖㜭᭸൘≄ىѝ઼ṶᷦѝⲴ䟽㾱ᙗ ......................................... 5 ᅮа䜘࠶˖㜭᭸Ṷᷦ˄≄ىǃ׋ᓄᆹޘǃ㓿⍾ㄎҹ࣋˅ ........................... 8 㜭᭸Ⲵ≄ىѝ઼Ṷᷦ˄൘⅗ⴏ઼ᐤ哾ॿᇊቲ䶒˅ ............................. 8 ᗧഭ㜭᭸Ⲵ≄ىѝ઼Ṷᷦ ................................................ 12 㜭᭸ǃ㓿⍾ㄎҹ࣋৺׋ᓄᆹޘ ............................................ 17 ᅮҼ䜘࠶˖㜭᭸ᴰ֣ᇎ䐥᧚ᯭо᭯ᅙⲴᇎᛵӻ㓽઼Ṹֻ⹄ウ ...................... 19 䐘亶ฏ㜭᭸᭯ᅙ ........................................................ 19 1.1.1 ᗧഭ㜭Ⓚ䴰≲઼㜭᭸Ⲵᛵߥӻ㓽 .................................. 19 1.1.2 䐘亶ฏ᭯ᅙṸֻ⹄ウ ............................................ 22 ⻣ᇊԧ²²⅗ⴏ⻣ᧂ᭮Ӕ᱃փ㌫оljഭᇦ⟳ᯉᧂ᭮Ӕ᱃⌅NJ ................. 22 ᔪᅌ㢲㜭 .............................................................. 24 1.1.3 ᔪᅌ㢲㜭᧚ᯭᇎᛵӻ㓽 .......................................... 24 1.1.4 ᔪᅌ㜭᭸᭯ᅙṸֻ⹄ウ .......................................... 26 㢲㜭ᔪᅌ㚄䛖䍴ࣙ䇑ࡂ ................................................. 26 ትտᔪᅌ㜭᭸ᔪ䇞㚄䛖䍴ࣙ䇑ࡂ ......................................... 28 ⭥ಘ㢲㜭 .............................................................. 32 1.1.5 ⭥ಘ㢲㜭᧚ᯭᇎᛵӻ㓽 .......................................... 32 1.1.6 ᇦ⭘⭥ಘ㜭᭸᭯ᅙṸֻ⹄ウ ...................................... 34 ⭥ಘ⭏ᘱ䇮䇑о㜭Ⓚḷ䇶 ............................................... 34 ³䟷⭘ㄎҹᙗᤋḷᯩᔿ᧘ࣘ㢲⭥˖࠶ݵᨀॷ⭥㜭᭸⦷▌࣋ ́ ˄STEP upʽ˅䈅⛩亩ⴞ ................................................................. 36 ᐕъ㢲㜭 .............................................................. 40 1.1.7 ᐕъ㢲㜭᧚ᯭᇎᛵӻ㓽 .......................................... 40 1.1.8 ᐕъ㢲㜭᭯ᅙṸֻ⹄ウ .......................................... 42 㜭Ⓚᇑ䇑઼㜭Ⓚ㇑⨶㌫㔏 ............................................... 42 㜭Ⓚ〾 ............................................................... 51 Ӕ䙊䘀䗃㜭᭸ .......................................................... 53 II 1.1.9 Ӕ䙊䘀䗃㹼ъ㢲㜭᧚ᯭᇎᛵӻ㓽 .................................. 53 1.1.10 Ӕ䙊䘀䗃㹼ъ㜭᭸᭯ᅙṸֻ⹄ウ .................................. 56 ҈⭘䖖઼䖫රᵪࣘ䖖ⲴҼ≗ॆ⻣ᧂ᭮ᙗ㜭ḷ߶ ............................. 56 ᵪࣘ䖖〾˖໎࣐҈⭘䖖Ҽ≗ॆ⻣ᧂ᭮䟿Ⲵᵳ䟽 ............................. 61 ⴁ⍻оᇎᯭᴰ֣ᇎ䐥 .................................................... 63 ᅮй䜘࠶˖ൠᯩቲ䶒઼᧕ਇᓖ ................................................ 66 ൠᯩ˄෾ᐲ˅ቲ䶒᭯ᅙࡦᇊ৺ަоഭᇦ઼⅗⍢ቲ䶒Ⲵ㚄㌫ ..................... 66 Ṹֻ⹄ウ˖෾ᐲ≄؍ىᣔᯩṸ઼ᐲ᭯׋✝㿴ࡂ ............................. 67 㜭᭸᭯ᅙⲴ࠶䝽᭸ᓄ .................................................... 68 㜭᭸઼㜭Ⓚ䍛ഠ˄࠶䝽᭸ᓄ˅ ........................................... 68 㕃䀓㜭Ⓚ䍛ഠ᭯ᅙ ..................................................... 68 矢Պ᧕ਇᓖ ............................................................ 69 ৲㘳᮷⥞ .................................................................. 71 III ໫୼ᇕ CBAM ⻣䗩ໍາ䈳㢲ᵪࡦ CCS ⻣ᦅ䳶оሱᆈ CCU ⻣ᦅ䳶о࡙⭘ CO2 Ҽ≗ॆ⻣ CO2 eq. Ҽ≗ॆ⻣ᖃ䟿 EE 㜭᭸ EED 㜭᭸ᤷԔ EffSTRA 㜭᭸ᡈ⮕ EMS 㜭Ⓚ㇑⨶㌫㔏 GHG ⑙ᇔ≄փ GJ ॳݶ❖㙣˄109❖㙣˅ H2 ≒ kWh ॳ⬖ᰦ Mtoe Ⲯз੘⋩ᖃ䟿 MW ⬖ݶ NAPE ljഭᇦ㜭᭸㹼ࣘ䇑ࡂNJ NECP ljഭᇦ㜭Ⓚ઼≄ى䇑ࡂNJ NEDC ᯠ⅗⍢傮傦ᗚ⧟ PJ ᣽❖/ॳзӯ❖㙣˄1015❖㙣˅ PtG ⭥䖜≄ PtL ⭥䖜⏢ SUV 䘀ࣘරཊ⭘䙄⊭䖖 SWOT Ո࣯-࣓࣯-ᵪՊ-ေ㛱 TWh ཚ⬖ᰦ˄1012⬖˅ ZLEV 䴦ᧂ઼᭮վᧂ᭮䖖䖶 WLTP ޘ⨳䖫ර䖖㔏а⍻䈅〻ᒿ KSG lj≄ىਈॆ⌅ṸNJ GEG ljᗧഭᔪᅌ㜭Ⓚ⌅NJ/ljᗧഭᔪᅌ㿴㤳NJ 4 മჾ ޘ⨳䎺ᶕ䎺ཊⲴഭᇦ઼ൠ४᢯䈪ˈሶ൘ᵜц㓚ѝਦᡆѻਾॱᒤ䰤ᇎ⧠≄ىѝ઼DŽ㜭᭸᭯ᅙሩ≄ىѝ઼ⴞḷⲴᇎ⧠ਁᥕ⵰᭟ḡ֌⭘ˈ㘼ф㜭ཏሩवᤜਟ޽⭏㜭Ⓚǃ≒㜭㓿⍾ԕ৺ਟᤱ㔝⭏⢙㓿⍾ᡆ⻣ᦅ䳶оሱᆈⲴ޵൘ަԆ᭯ᅙӗ⭏ॿ਼᭸⳺ˈ໎ᕪ᭯ᅙ᧘㹼᧕ਇᓖˈᨀॷᇎᯭ᭸᷌DŽо↔਼ᰦˈחᓄ׋Ⲵվ⻣᧚ᯭᖰᖰՊᑖᶕᴤབྷⲴ⧟ໍາо㓿⍾ᖡ૽ྲֻˈ䍴Ⓚ⭘࡙ǃ˄ᯠⲴ˅䘋ਓ䎆׍ǃ⎸䍩㘵㗔փѻ䰤Ⲵ࠶䝽᭸ᓄԕ৺▌൘Ⲵ᧕ਇᓖ䰞仈DŽ ↓ᱟࠪҾк䘠৏ഐˈ⅗ⴏሶĀ㜭᭸Ոݸࡉ৏ā˄Energy Efficiency First Principleޕ˅㓣⅗ⴏ⌅ᖻˈӾ㘼䇔ਟҶ㜭᭸Ⲵߣᇊᙗ֌⭘DŽĀ㜭᭸Ոݸࡉ৏ā㻛㿶֌⅗ⴏ㜭Ⓚ᭯ᅙⲴᤷሬ৏ࡉˈᓄ㻛㓣ࡠޕवᤜ䠁㶽ъ൘޵Ⲵ⅗ⴏᡰᴹ㹼ъⲴ᭯ᅙѝDŽ䈕৏ࡉнᓄӵተ䲀Ҿ㜭Ⓚ㌫㔏ˈ㘼ᓄ൘਴њቲ䶒ᗇࡠփ⧠DŽ൘Ѫ׋ᓄח৺ަԆ᭯ᅙ亶ฏࡦᇊᯠ㿴ࡉᰦˈ㜭᭸ᓄ㻛㿶֌㿴ࡂ઼ᣅ䍴ߣᅙⲴ俆䘹ߣ䀓ᯩṸDŽ ᵜᣕ੺䇪䘠Ҷᗧഭ㜭᭸᭯ᅙⲴ䟽㾱֌⭘ˈᒦ൘йњㄐ㢲ѝ᧒䇘Ҷަѫ㾱ᵪࡦ˖ x ᅮа䜘࠶䱀䟺㜭᭸Ṷᷦ˄⎹৺≄ىѝ઼׋ǃᓄ৺ޘᆹ㓿⍾ᙗ˅DŽ x ᅮҼ䜘࠶Ӿ㹼ъ㿶䀂ࠪਁˈሩᗧഭ㜭᭸᭯ᅙ˄䍟ク਴亶ฏⲴ᭯ᅙˈ䟽⛩ޣ⌘ᇊԧоӔ᱃᭯ᅙǃᔪᅌǃ⭥ಘǃᐕъ઼Ӕ䙊䘀䗃亶ฏ˅䘋㹼࠶᷀DŽᅮҼ䜘࠶䘈ُࣙ᭯ᅙṸֻ⹄ウˈ䈖ቭ䱀䘠Ҷᗧഭ㜭᭸᭯ᅙⲴᡀ઼࣏ཡ䍕ѻ༴DŽ↔ཆˈᅮҼ䜘࠶䘈⢩࡛ӻ㓽Ҷᗧഭ㜭Ⓚ㌫㔏䖜රⲴⴁ⍻࠶᷀ᯩ⌅ˈԕ৺⅗ⴏቲ䶒Odyssee-MURE亩DŽާ᷀ᐕ࠶Ⲵ׋ⴞᨀ x ᅮй䜘࠶ᤷࠪҶൠᯩቲ䶒㜭᭸᭯ᅙⲴᕪབྷ֌⭘ǃ䪸ሩᕡ࣯⎸䍩㘵㗔փ᭯ޣᇊ⴨ࡦᅙⲴ䟽㾱ᙗԕ৺ᨀ儈㜭᭸᭯ᅙ᧕ਇᓖⲴ䟽㾱ᙗˈቔަᱟᇊԧоӔ᱃ᯩṸⲴ᧕ਇᓖDŽ ᡰᴹйњ䜘࠶䜭䲿䱴SWOT᷀˄࠶ᘱ࣯࠶᷀⌅ˈSWOTԓ㺘࡛࠶Ո࣯ǃ࣓࣯ǃᵪՊǃေ㛱˅ˈ࠶᷀㤳ത⎹৺Ṷᷦ᭯ᅙǃ㹼ъ᭯ᅙ઼䈖㓶Ⲵ᭯ᅙṸֻ⹄ウDŽ ⅗ⴏငઈՊҾ2021ᒤ᧘ࠪⲴĀ⻣߿55%ā˄Fit-for-55˅аᨭᆀ䇑ࡂѝ㿴ᇊҶ⅗⍢᭯ᅙṶᷦ䇮䇑ˈᯠаቺᗧഭ᭯ᓌҏҾ਼ᒤ11ࠪᴸᨀҶᴤ儈Ⲵ≄ىⴞḷˈ᢯䈪൘2045ᒤᇎ⧠≄ىѝ઼ˈ䘉ሶࣙ࣋ᗧഭ൘᭯ᅙᇎ䐥ѝᴹ᭸䍟ᖫ㜭᭸Ոݸ৏ࡉDŽสҾᯠⲴṶᷦ᭯ᅙᑖᶕⲴᵪ䙷ˈᵜҖሶ࠶᷀਴亩᭯ᅙⲴՈ࣓࣯DŽ 5 ڞჾǖీၳሞࢅዐࢪഘ઀ॐዐڦዘᄲႠ 䘁ᒤᶕˈѪҶሶᵜц㓚ޘ⨳ᒣ൷≄⑙кॷᑵᓖ᧗ࡦ൘1.5°Cԕ޵ˈᇎ⧠≄ىѝ઼ᐢᡀѪц⭼਴ഭⲴа亩ѫ㾱㹼ࣘⴞḷDŽѝഭᐢ㺘皮࣋ҹ൘2030ࡽᒤᇎ⧠⻣ᧂ᭮䟿䗮ጠˈ2060ᒤࡽᇎ⧠⻣ѝ઼ⴞḷDŽ⅗ⴏҾ2021ࠪᒤᨀ³⻣߿ ́аᨭᆀࡂ䇑˄⅗ⴏငઈՊˈ2021a˅