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2022年4月利率债市场运行报告:全面降准落地,十年期国债收益率回升

2022-05-13冯祖涵、简奖平、陈浩川远东资信有***
2022年4月利率债市场运行报告:全面降准落地,十年期国债收益率回升

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2022年5月13日 全面降准落地,十年期国债收益率回升 ——2022年4月利率债市场运行报告 摘 要 作 者:冯祖涵 陈浩川 简奖平 邮 箱:research@fecr.com.cn 货币市场方面,4月,央行维持MLF与逆回购中标利率与上月持平,等量平价续作MLF,公开市场操作和MLF共实现净回笼流动性7100亿元。关键货币资金价格多在央行7天逆回购中标利率下方调整,并于月底小幅走高;1年期与5年期以上LPR连续3个月持平;Shibor利率波动下降,同业存单到期收益率呈下降趋势。整体来看,4月资金面总体稳中偏宽松;央行维持政策利率不变,并决定于4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点,释放长期资金约5300亿元;5月,央行降准降息的可能性相对较小,美联储未来潜在的连续加息对中国货币政策形成掣肘,同时未来继续降准降息政策空间有限,预计接下来结构性货币政策将继续加码。 利率债市场方面,从一级市场来看,4月国债和政策性银行债净融资共实现-589.87亿元,环比大幅下降;10年期国债和政策性银行债发行利率环比小幅下降。4月地方债月内共发行2842.06亿元,并实现净融资1474.89亿元,环比有所下降;新增专项债发行1038.29亿元,累计已完成提前批额度的96.02%,提前下达的新增专项债限额还剩581.1亿元,预计5月即可发行完毕。整体来看,财政政策坚持靠前发力,加快财政资金支出、专项债券发行使用、中央基建投资预算下达,确保有利于激活力、增动力的政策早出台、早落地、早见效。 从利率债二级市场来看,4月份国债与国开债成交活跃度双降;10年期国债收益率波动走高,而10年期国开债收益率于月内窄幅振荡,当月末收益率与上月末基本持平;主要中长期地方政府债到期收益率呈小幅下降趋势;中外国债利差进一步收窄,4月中美10年期国债收益率连续多日倒挂。预计美联储在通胀压力下将进一步加速收紧货币政策,中美10年期国债收益率或继续倒挂,同时人民币兑美元或继续承压。 综合来看,4月利率债收益率稳中有升,月末10年期国债收益率升至2.84%,预计未来一段时间全面降准降息政策难以落地,结构性货币政策与积极的财政政策将带动10年期国债收益率在2.8%-2.9%的区间内波动。当前,全国单日新增感染病例数(包括新增确诊病例与新增无症状感染者)已大幅回落,产业链供应链在政策组合拳的作用下逐步得到修复。4月制造业PMI在疫情扩散、供需两弱的压力下降至47.4%,工业经济或已触底;预计5月随着疫情形势逐步好转,在财政政策与货币政策的协调配合下,制造业将触底反弹。后续可密切关注疫情形势、俄乌冲突、美联储货币政策、人民币汇率、国际油价等重要变量。 相关研究报告: 1. 《2022年3月利率债市场运行报告》,2022.4.15 2.《2022年2月利率债市场运行报告》,2022.3.15 3.《2020年1月利率债市场运行报告》,2022.2.15 4.《2021年12月信用债市场运行报告》,2022.1.15 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets MAY 13th, 2022 Summary In the money market, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) kept the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate and 7-day repo rate stable. The MLF injected 150 billion yuan to hedge the expiration of the previous MLF (150 billion yuan). The PBOC’s open market operations (excluding Central Bank Bills Swap or CBS) achieved a net withdrawal of 710 billion yuan. Key capital prices fluctuated below the 7-day repo rate and rose at the end of the month. Due to stable policy rates, the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) and the five-year LPR kept stable. The interest rates of Shibor declined slightly, and the interest rate of interbank negotiable certificates of deposit also saw a decrease. On the whole, the capital level was moderately loose. The PBOC kept the policy interest rate unchanged and decided to cut banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.25 percentage points from April 25, releasing about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds. In May, The possibility of the PBOC cutting RRR and interest rates is relatively small. The Fed's potential continuous interest rate hikes in the future will hinder China's monetary policy. At the same time, there is limited room for continued RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in the future. We expected more structural monetary policy in the future. In the primary market of Chinese government bonds, the net financing of central government bonds (Treasury bonds) and policy bank bonds (quasi-sovereign bonds) was -58.987 billion yuan in April which is greatly smaller than the previous month's level. The issuance rates of newly issued central government bonds and policy bank bonds decrease slightly on a month-on-month basis. The amount of local government bond issuances was 284.206 billion yuan and the net financing was 147.489 billion yuan, which decreased compared to last month. In April, newly issued special bonds were 103.829 billion yuan. Until now, 96.02% of the pre-approved quota has been completed, and the remaining 58.11 billion yuan is expected to be issued in May. On the whole, the fiscal policy insists on making efforts ahead and accelerating the expenditure of fiscal funds, the issuance and use of special bonds, and the issuance of the central infrastructure investment budget. In the secondary market of Chinese government bonds, the trading activity of treasury bonds and policy bank bonds both decreased. The yield of 10-year treasury bonds fluctuated higher. The yields of local government bonds showed a slight downward trend. The spreads between Chinese and foreign government bond spreads further narrowed. The yields of 10-year Chinese and US government bonds in April were inverted for several consecutive days. It is expected that the Fed will further accelerate the tightening of monetary policy under the high inflation, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds between China and the United States may continue to invert, and the RMB against the US dollar may continue to be under pressure. A comprehensive RRR cut was implemented, and the yield of 10-year government bonds rebounded ——April 2022 China's government bond market operation report Author: Feng zuhan,Chen Haochuan, Jian Jiangping, E-mail:research@fecr.com.cn

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