请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2022年7月19日 经济企稳回升带动十年期国债收益率上行 ——2022年6月利率债市场运行报告 摘 要 作 者：冯祖涵 陈浩川 简奖平 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 货币市场与货币政策方面，6月，央行维持MLF与逆回购中标利率与上月持平，等量平价续作MLF，公开市场操作和MLF共实现净投放流动性4000亿元。关键货币资金价格多在央行7天逆回购中标利率下方调整，并于月底迅速走高；1年期与5年期以上LPR均维持前值不变；Shibor利率走势平稳，而同业存单到期收益率呈小幅上行趋势。整体来看，6月资金面总体偏宽松；央行继续等量平价续作MLF，政策利率与贷款基础利率保持稳定；受全球主要经济体持续收紧货币政策影响，我国政策利率下调空间相对有限，但存款利率市场化调整机制的建立健全有助于持续释放贷款市场报价利率改革效能，为贷款利率下调腾挪空间，预计下半年MLF仍有调降可能。 利率债市场方面，从一级市场来看，6月国债和政策性银行债净融资共实现5721.4亿元，环比大幅增加；10年期国债发行利率环比下降，10年期政策性银行债发行利率环比小幅上涨。6月地方债共发行19336.61亿元，并实现净融资14993.6亿元，环比大幅增加；新增专项债发行13626.94亿元，累计已完成全年新增专项债限额的93.1%。整体来看，财政政策强调加大宏观政策调节力度，谋划增量政策工具。 从利率债二级市场来看，6月国债成交活跃度有所下降，国开债成交活跃度大幅上升；10年期国债收益率与10年期国开债收益率于月内波动走高；主要中长期地方政府债到期收益率呈上行趋势；海外主要经济体国债收益率走势不一，月内中美10年期国债收益率仍连续多日倒挂；6月美联储的加息步伐带动美元指数持续攀升，同时我国经济企稳回升，综合作用下月内人民币窄幅震荡。预计7月中美利差仍将延续倒挂趋势，人民币继续承压。 综合来看，6月利率债收益率呈上行趋势，月末10年期国债收益率升至2.82%，预计未来一段时间经济加速修复将进一步带动10年期国债收益率回升。产需两端加速修复带动经济企稳回升，6月PMI升至50.2%，重回扩张区间，但经济修复的过程中仍面临多重挑战。生产修复依赖于物流畅通、产业链供应链稳定，但疫情的不确定性将持续对物流、产业链与供应链造成威胁；7月上旬局部地区疫情再度有所反弹，保证产业链稳定畅通仍是重中之重。房地产方面，楼市政策的放松带动商品住宅销售价格趋稳，商品房销售改善，但居民收入预期走弱与房地产行业风险尚未出清仍将对房地产行业造成压力；此外，近期出现个别房企楼盘出现延期交付情况，引发业主联名停贷，房地产信贷风险积累。后续可密切关注疫情形势、俄乌冲突、信贷投放、房地产市场、国际油价等重要变量。 相关研究报告： 1. 《2022年5月利率债市场运行报告》，2022.6.15 2. 《2022年4月利率债市场运行报告》，2022.5.15 3.《2022年3月利率债市场运行报告》，2022.4.15 4.《2020年2月利率债市场运行报告》，2022.3.15 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets July 19th, 2022 Summary In the money market, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) kept the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate and 7-day repo rate stable. The MLF injected 200 billion yuan to hedge the expiration of the previous MLF (200 billion yuan). The PBOC’s open market operations (excluding Central Bank Bills Swap or CBS) achieved a net injection of 400 billion yuan. Key capital prices fluctuated below the 7-day repo rate and rose at the end of the month. One-year loan prime rate (LPR) and five-year LPR kept stable. The interest rates of Shibor kept stable, and the interest rate of interbank negotiable certificates of deposit also saw a slight increase. On the whole, the capital level was moderately loose. The PBOC continued to make MLF at an equal amount and parity, and kept policy rate and loan rate stable. Affected by the continuous tight monetary policies of major economies, the PBOC has less room to reduce interest rates. However, the market-oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates will help to release the efficiency of the reform of loan market quotation interest rates and make room for the reduction of loan interest rates. We expect that MLF may still be lowered in the second half of the year. In the primary market of Chinese government bonds, the net financing of central government bonds (Treasury bonds) and policy bank bonds (quasi-sovereign bonds) was 572.14 billion yuan in June which is greatly larger than the previous month's level. The issuance rates of newly issued central government bonds decreased slightly on a month-on-month basis and the issuance rates of newly issued policy bank bonds saw an increase. The amount of local government bond issuances was 1933.661 billion yuan and the net financing was 1499.36 billion yuan, which increased significantly compared to last month. In June, newly issued special bonds were 1362.694 billion yuan. Until now, 93.1% of the newly issued special bonds limit for the year has been completed. On the whole, On the whole, fiscal policy emphasizes increasing the adjustment of macroeconomic policies and planning incremental policy tools. In the secondary market of Chinese government bonds, the trading activity of treasury bonds decreased in June and the trading activity of policy bank bonds increased. Both the yield of 10-year treasury bonds and the yield of 10-year policy bank bonds saw an increase. The yields of local government bonds also showed a slight upward trend. The yields of treasury bonds of major economies showed different trends, and the 10-year Treasury bond yields of China and the US remained inverted for several consecutive days during the month. The pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in June drove the US dollar index to continue to rise, while China's economy stabilized and rebounded. The RMB fluctuated within a narrow range in the Economic recovery drives the yield of 10-year government bonds up ——June 2022 China's government bond market operation report Author: Feng zuhan,Chen Haochuan, Jian Jiangping, E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn