东吴证券(国际)-证券行业2021年报点评及2022一季报前瞻：财富管理转型加速，看好龙头券商韧性

EquityResearch·IndustryResearch·Brokerage2021Wrap-upand2022Q1Outlook1/22东吴证券（香港）请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分[Table_Main]LeadingbrokersareexpectedtoberesilientaswealthmanagementindustrytransformationacceleratesOutperform(Maintain)InvestmentThesis2021BrokerageSectorWrap-up:Thesectorsawsteadyprogressascapitalmarketreformdeepened:①Steadilygrowingearningsandenhancedcapitalstrength:inFY21,all140brokersachievednetprofitRMB191.1bn(+21.3%,YOY),netassetsRMB2.57trn(+11.3%YOY),ROE7.83%(+0.56pctYOY).②Increasingfinancingcapacityandmarketactivity:market'sdirectfinancingcapacityhasbeenstrengthenedduetoestablishmentofBeijingStockExchange(BSE),promotionofregistrationsystemreform,andimprovementofmulti-levelcapitalmarketsystem.In2021,stocktradingvolumeatSSEandSZSEwasRMB276trn(+26.0%YOY),withnewindividualinvestors22.31mn(+24.1%YOY)andnewinstitutionalinvestors52,300(+41%YOY).③MainsourceofincomewasInvestmentandbrokeragebusinessandwealthmanagementindustrytransformationhadpaidoff:In2021,incomefromlight-asset(51%)andheavy-assetbusiness(49%)werewellproportioned.Brokerageincomefromlight-assetbusinesswasRMB154.5bn,upby33.1%YOY.④Leadingbrokerssawstableincomesourcesandfasterwealthmanagementtransformationthanpeers.Leadingbrokersshowedacceleratedtransformationinwealthmanagementbusinessandrobustinvestmentreturns.①In2021,CITIC,CICCandGTJAachievedoperatingincomeRMB76.5/41/42.8bn,netprofitsRMB23.1/10.8/15bn,ROE11.8%/13.8%/10.6%,andleverageratios4.91/6.59/4.72respectively.②Leadingcompaniesshowedobviouscompetitiveedgesinwealthmanagementtransformationandactiveinvestment.NetincomefromassetmanagementbusinessofCITICandCICCgrewsubstantiallyby45.7%and34.9%YOY.③LeadingcompanieshadobviouscompetitiveadvantagesduetohighindustryconcentrationofIBbusiness.TOP5brokersrankedbyIBbusinessachievedmarketshare53%，45%，59%intermsofthecombinationofIPO,bondfinancingandrefinancingscale.④LeadingcompanieslargelybenefitedfromrapiddevelopmentofOTCderivatives:OTCderivativesmarkettendstoberelativelyhighlyconcentrated.CR5forswapandoptionstayedabove85%and60%.2022Q1outlookoflistedbrokeragecompany:Leadingbrokersareexpectedtoberesilientasmarketfluctuates.①Wealthmanagementtransformationmayseeacontinuousaccelerationasmoreresidents’assetsaretransferredtofinancialassets.WeexpectthatnetincomefrombrokerageandassetmanagementbusinesswillbeRMB37.3/16.3bn,upby18.9%/42.6%YoY.②Withcapitalmarketreformdeepening,netincomefromIBbusinessisexpectedtogrowtoRMB17.3bn(+43.5%YOY).③Capitalintermediarybusinessmaybenefitfromrapidlygrowingbrokeragelending;however,investmentincomemaybeaffectedbypoorindexperformance.2022Q1NetinterestincomeandinvestmentincomeareexpectedtobeRMB14.8/25.8bn,upby2.9%/downby15.0%YOY.④NetprofitestimateisRMB46.6bn,upby10.4%YOY.WerecommendEastMoneyInformation,CITICandCICC(H-share).Risks：Marketactivitywanes;Macroeconomyworsethanexpected;Innovationpolicyofindustrylowerthanexpected;4)Externaltensionsaffecttheindustry.[Table_PicQuote]Industryperformance[Table_Report]Relatedreports1、《风险如期改善，券商反弹2.0延续》2018-11-20SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbyXiangHu(胡翔)andJieyuZhu(朱洁羽),employeeofSoochowResearchInstitute.[Table_Author]13April2022ResearchAnalystHanyueLi(852)39830823kellyli@dwzq.com.hkValuationofkeycompaniesstockcodecompanyMarketCap(RMBbn)Closingprice(RMB)EPSPERating2021A2022E2023E2021A2022E2023E300059EastMoneyInformation287.3026.090.8311.2731.4326.0920.54Outperform600030CITIC313.0121.121.772.092.5011.9310.118.45Outperform03908CICC86.7017.962.162.502.958.317.186.09OutperformDatasource:SoochowSecurities(HK) 证券研究报告·行业点评报告·证券II证券行业:2021年报点评及2022一季报前瞻2/22东吴证券（香港）请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分[Table_Main]财富管理转型加速，看好龙头券商韧性增持（维持）投资要点证券行业2021年总结：资本市场改革深化，整体稳中有进：1）证券行业业绩稳步增长，资本实力不断增强：2021年全行业共计140家证券公司实现营业收入5,024亿元（同比+12.0%），实现净利润1,911亿元（同比+21.3%）。截至2021年末，证券行业总资产10.59万亿元（同比+19.1%），净资产2.57万亿元（同比+11.3%），证券行业ROE抬升至7.83%（较去年+0.56pct），行业杠杆率为3.38（2020年为3.13）。2）市场融资能力强化+市场活跃度提升：北交所成立、注册制改革稳步推进、多层次资本市场体系完善推动市场直接融资能力不断强化；2021年沪深股票成交金额276万亿元（同比+26.0%），市场新增个人投资者2,231万人（同比+24.1%），新增机构投资者5.23万户（同比+41%）。3）行业收入结构持续均衡优化，投资、经纪为主要来源，财富管理转型已现成效：2021年证券行业轻重资产业务收入占比均衡（轻资产51%，重资产业务49%），轻资产业务中经纪业务收入同比+33.1%至1545亿元。4）头部券商收入来源趋于稳健，财富管理转型速度明显快于行业。我们选取净资产排名靠前的9家头部券商作为代表公司分析，收入占比最高的是自营投资（占比27%/同比+10%）及经纪（24%/同比+22%），而资管及利息净收入的同比增速更快（分别为+34%/+28%）。2021年头部券商财富管理转型加速，投资交易趋于稳健：1）2021年中信、中金、国君、华泰、广发五家头部券商营业收入分别为765/410/428/379/343亿元、归母净利润分别为231/108/150/133/109亿元、ROE分别为11.8%/13.8%/10.6%/9.6%/10.6%、杠杆率分别为4.91/6.59/4.72/4.44/3.84；2）大财富管理条线：头部公司转型优势明显，如中金公司产品保有量同比+90%至3000亿元，财富管理买方收费资产同比+180%至800亿元。头部券商主动管理转型迅速，2021年东方、广发的集合资管规模占比分别为69%/71%，而中金、中信的集合资管规模占比也超过了40%；3）投行业务：行业集中度高，龙头券商优势明显。2021年中信，中金，中信建投，海通，华泰投行业务收入位居前五。这五家头部券商在2021年IPO募资规模，债券募资规模，再融资募资规模的合计市占率分别为53%，45%，59%；4）投资交易：场外衍生品快速发展，龙头券商深度受益。衍生品天然的高杠杆属性及其避险属性，有助于稳定证券公司ROE。场外衍生品业务市场集中度往往较高（互换CR5保持在85%以上，期权CR5保持在60%以上）。上市券商一季报前瞻：市场波动震荡，看好龙头券商韧性。1）居民财富逐步迁移至金融市场，财富管理业务转型持续加速：我们预计2022Q1行业经纪业务净收入将同比+18.9%至373亿元，行业资管业务收入将同比+42.6%至163亿元。2）资本市场改革持续深化，投行业务将稳健发展：我们预计2022Q1行业投行业务收入将同比+43.5%至173亿元。3）融券快速发展推动资本中介业务提升，但指数表现不佳影响投资交易波动：我们预计2022Q