EQUITY RESEARCH Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH 萬豐奧威 (002085 CH) 短期影響丌改長期增長邏輯 中國 | 汽車零部件 | 公司報告 9 February 2022 公司簡介 經過近20年的內生發展+外延收購，萬豐奧威形成了金屬材料輕量化應用汽車部件產業和通航飛機製造產業“雙引擎”驅動的發展格局，涵蓋1）鋁合金輪轂，2）鎂合金汽車壓鑄件3）高強度鋼衝壓件及其他金屬鑄件，4）達克羅環保塗覆，5）通用航空飛機，等五大業務部門板塊。公司在其各個細分子行業領域處於行業領先地位。 投資概要： 原材料成本傳導壓力大，二三季度業績承壓 因為疫情造成的低基數效應，2021年前三季度萬豐奧威的汽車金屬部件輕量化業務產銷量及銷售收入整體錄得增長。然而，由於主要原材料同比上漲幅度較大，以及因疫情船期緊張海運價格上漲影響，疊加客戶銷售價格與原材料價格聯動結算滯後及部分客戶尚未聯動因素影響，導致公司的成本同比上漲幅度遠高於收入增長幅度，影響整體盈利水準呈現下滑態勢。2021年前三季度，公司的營業收入同比增長15.8%，至85.2億元人民幣，營業總成本則同比增長19.9%，最終歸屬於母公司淨利潤為2.4億元，同比大幅下挫42%。 毛利率下滑明顯，四季度或有所改善 公司汽車金屬部件輕量化業務主要原材料為鋁錠、鎂錠和鋼材，公司與大部分客戶的銷售價格會根據主要原材料的價格波動進行聯動，調價週期一般為月度、季度、半年度丌等。前三季度，公司毛利率同比下滑6個百分點，至16%，已是十年來低谷，與國際鋁、鎂、鋼材大宗商品價格創出十年新高相對應。四季度該等商品的價格已較三季度的高位有所回落，預計公司的採購成本也會隨之下降，同時與下游客戶之間價格聯動結算滯後的影響也將有所減弱，毛利率水準預計將環比改善。 通航飛機國產化專案穩步推進，蓄勢待發 2020年公司收購了全球領先的通航飛機製造商萬豐飛機工業55%股權，正式進軍通用航空飛機製造，開啟業務“雙引擎”驅動發展模式，並於21年2月和6月，成功引入兩大戰略投資者國資青島城投和北京航發基金，分別持股35%和10%。2021年上半年由於海外疫情原因，通航飛機製造業務部分訂單收入確認延後，影響了該分部業績。 買入 （維持） 現價 CNY 4.91 (現價截至2月7日) 目標價 CNY 6 (+22.2%) 公司資料 普通股股東 (百萬股) : 2072 市值 ( 人民幣百萬元) : 12050 52周 最高價/最低價 (人民幣元) : 6.54/ 5.06 主要股東 % 陳愛蓮家族 38.4 股價 & 深成指 Source: Aastock, Phillip Securities (HK) Research 財務資料 CNY 100mn FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Net Sales 107 116 135 150 Net Profit 6 3 6 9 EPS, CNY 0.27 0.16 0.29 0.43 P/E, x 18.0 30.4 16.7 11.3 BVPS, CNY 2.58 2.52 2.71 2.94 P/BV, x 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 DPS (CNY) 0.30 0.12 0.20 0.27 Div. Yield (%) 6.1% 2.4% 4.1% 5.5% Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Est. 研究員 章晶 (+ 86 021-51699400-103) zhangjing@phillip.com.cn Page | 2 | PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH Wanfeng Auto Wheels UPDATE REPORT 公司目前的國內在手訂單生產計畫已經排到2023年，新基地建設和新機型的引進整體有計劃推進，DA50已完成TC取證，將在青島投建年產220架鑽石飛機專案（其中120架DA50、100架HK36），後續將陸續引入 DA62、DA62MPP機型。我們認為國內的通航市場目前仍處於發展初期，市場空間廣闊。海外疫情的短期影響並丌改變通航板塊的長期增長邏輯。 關注後續業績復蘇情況 根據最新的財務資料，我們調整21-23年EPS預測為0.16/0.29/0.43（此前為0.37/0.46/0.61）元，以反映原材料上漲帶來的成本影響，因此也調整公司目標價至6元(此前為7元)，對應2021/2022/2023年37.1/20.4/13.8倍P/E，2.4/2.2/2.0倍P/B估值，評級 “買入”。 (現價截至2月7日) Peer Comparison Source: Wind, Phillip Securities Hong Kong Research PB BAND Source: Wind, Phillip Securities Hong Kong Research 風險 新業務推進進度低於預期 產品價格下跌，市場競爭激烈 原材料大幅上漲 mNrPtMtMoMqMoNpO6McM7NmOmMsQmOjMrRsQjMoPpO6MrQqOxNtOoOxNqRpO Page | 3 | PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH Wanfeng Auto Wheels UPDATE REPORT 財務資料 (現價截至2月7日) Page | 4 | PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH Wanfeng Auto Wheels UPDATE REPORT PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd (“Phillip Securities”). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading