IDC中国智能手机行业市场简报：科技投资者沙龙

Jan. 2022IDC中国智能手机市场简报科技投资者沙龙 2© IDC |▪整体市场概况▪国内市场竞争-高端市场▪海外市场竞争-高端市场▪折叠屏 qRtMrRpNnPxPnNtPnQoPsN9PcM9PsQnNoMpNiNrRrQeRpOmP8OqRpRxNpOrONZrQpM3© IDC |9174628078707369708125771713911-3.6%-15.6%-20.3%-10.3%-14.3%0.3%29.6%-10.3%-4.7%AndroidiOSYoY Growth RateApple连续高速增长，带动大盘降幅略有收窄，安卓平均单价开始下滑China Smartphone Shipments（Unit: Million ）China Smartphone ASP Trend(CNY）2,086 2,347 2,358 2,706 2,470 2,337 2,649 2,548 2,450 6,176 6,437 6,266 6,019 5,544 7,150 7,093 6,720 7,342 2,420 2,935 2,654 2,981 2,724 3,267 3,327 3,048 3,086 1,500 2,500 3,500 4,500 5,500 6,500 7,5001 9 Q 31 9 Q 42 0 Q 12 0 Q 22 0 Q 32 0 Q 42 1 Q 12 1 Q 22 1 Q 3AndroidiOSTotalYoY2019Q32019Q42020Q12021Q32020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q3Android-4.3%-18.2%-20.9%-11.9%-14.4%-5.5%18.8%-13.8%-9.6%iOS5.6%4.8%-12.2%11.6%-13.1%34.7%160.7%29.2%49.7%❑安卓阵营OPPO，Xiaomi，Huawei，OnePlus拉动平均单价环比下滑。❑iPhone 13系列Pro、Max版本占比相比去年同期更高，“低价策略”也促进了更高版本市场表现。 4© IDC |线上渠道天花板难以突破，安卓市场高端产品促销季大幅降价拉高线上平均单价38.7%33.5%32.7%31.0%29.5%33.0%30.9%61.3%66.5%67.3%69.0%70.5%67.0%69.1%2020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q3China Overallsmartphone channeltrend，20Q3 –21Q32,393 2,688 2,478 2,262 2,609 2,648 2,362 2,338 2,714 2,463 2,368 2,664 2,504 2,486 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,8002020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q3OnlineOfflineChina Overallsmartphone market ASP trend (CNY)2,939 3,117 2,792 3,345 3,523 3,311 3,118 2,475 2,913 2,689 3,233 3,245 2,919 3,072 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,6002020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q3China Android smartphone market ASP trend (CNY) 5© IDC |5.5, (-35.6%) 44.9, (-26.6%) 65.9, (13.4%) 30.3, (-16.9%) 29.4, (28.9%) 16, (2.1%) 19.1, (-22.2%) 19.5, (149.6%) 15.3, (277%) <$100 $100<200 $200<$300 $300<$400 $400<$500 $500<$600 $600<$800 $800<$1000 $1000+China Smartphone Shipments by price band，2021 vs. 2020 (Q1-Q3)今年前三季度，国内市场累计增长2.8%，依靠超高端市场拉动市场增长1.5, (-62.2%) 13.9, (-5.2%) 24.7, (-13.1%) 12.8, (-12.9%) 7.2, (45.6%) 4.1, (-17.3%) 4.6, (-49.2%) 7.2, (180.8%) 4.8, (219.1%) <$100 $100<200 $200<$300 $300<$400 $400<$500 $500<$600 $600<$800 $800<$1000 $1000+China Smartphone Shipments by price band，21Q3 vs. 20Q3（Units: Million，%）❑前三季度$400以下市场容量累计下滑超过10%，5G吸引力不足，大量低端市场需求待满足❑第三季度nova 9 上市，荣耀50持续热销，$400-500价位段同比去年提升❑手机市场价位段结构变化，与近年居民可支配收入增速变化对应自2020年以来连续6个季度，可支配收入平均数增速>可支配收入中位数增速 6© IDC |11.5%7.5%12.8%9.5%8.2%40.0%62.4%60.2%68.8%56.4%27.9%17.7%9.4%4.2%15.2%0.3%0.1%0.1%0.1%1.9%1.7%1.1%0.9%0.4%2.1%1.4%1.2%0.2%0.7%1.8%13.9%8.8%16.0%15.8%7.6%1.8%0.6%0.1%0.5%5.9%2020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q3$1000+$800<$1000$600<$800$500<$600$400<$500$300<$400$200<$300$100<200<$100主流5G产品稳定在$200-300价位段，>$800市场连续稳定在15%比例China Smartphone Market By Price Band (USD, exclude VAT)1.4%7.9%5.7%7.5%5.6%37.4%26.8%27.1%32.7%35.1%29.5%21.8%12.4%14.5%20.1%8.7%5.5%17.8%15.9%10.9%9.1%4.6%10.2%7.6%6.1%8.2%6.4%7.6%6.2%5.1%3.9%13.7%9.4%9.4%9.8%13.3%9.8%6.1%7.4%2020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q34.7%2.3%2.8%2.0%1.9%17.3%24.5%17.5%20.2%17.3%33.5%24.0%23.3%26.8%30.5%17.4%15.2%9.7%11.5%15.9%5.8%4.2%14.2%12.7%8.9%5.9%3.5%8.0%6.2%5.1%10.6%7.2%9.4%8.2%5.6%3.0%9.7%7.4%7.6%8.9%9.4%7.7%4.9%5.9%2020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q3Overall5G4G 7© IDC |国内市场走向梳理：2022下滑，增长需看到2023年之后279 277 283 287 288 46 46 47 47 47 0%-1%2%1%0%20212022202320242025AndroidiOSTotal YoYChina Smartphone Shipments Forecast 2021-2025（Unit: Million ）73 69 70 67 67 70 71 69 13 9 11 13 10 10 11 15 29.6%-10.3%-4.7%-8.4%-11.0%2.2%1.9%5.5%2021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q4AndroidiOSTotal YoYChina Smartphone Shipments Forecast21Q1-22Q4（Unit: Million ）❑需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱——2021年第三季度降幅在预期之内，但随着第四季度及1月各家砍单，短期市场预期进一步下调❑华为的一系列动作预计将在直到2022年上半年的时间内，持续延长大量存量用户换机周期❑2022年基于换机周期继续延长，二手市场继续冲击，技术与新品牌带动力不足等原因，乐观估计微降1%。2023年起，基于多品牌被市场接受与国产替代进度乐观预计会出现相对大幅的一波换机，带动增长。 8© IDC |▪整体市场概况▪国内市场竞争-高端市场▪海外市场竞争-高端市场▪折叠屏 9© IDC |Huawei0%-17%-12%-33%-41%-38%-24%-12%-44%1%-46%-62%-1%-30%Honor0%1%-5%2%12%23%20%4%21%12%0%4%1%1%OPPO0%-2%11%4%3%0%10%-11%10%5%2%-6%1%-1%vivo0%2%0%18%5%3%-11%38%19%8%10%2%0%0%Xiaomi-12%8%1%2%9%10%2%0%4%5%6%1%2%0%Apple0%0%0%0%0%0%-4%-15%-9%-35%19%63%9%41%realme0%8%3%1%4%1%4%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%X20，50系列带动荣耀$250-$400市场份额快速提升，Magic 3系列进入>$600市场; OPPO A系列在$200-$250市场表现好；vivo两代S系列专注$400-$500市场；Note10缺货，K40系列等主力产品旺季过后减量，小米$200-$600份额下降1.513.915.09.74.98.04.92.34.13.11.44.52.74.80%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%<$100$100<200$200<$250$250<$300$300<$350$350<$400$400-$450$450-$500$500-$600$600-$700$700-$800$800-$900$900<$1000$1000+ChinaSmartphone Market Brand share in Price Band, 2021Q3OthersOnePlusMeizurealmeSamsungAppleXiaomivivoOPPOHonorHuawei2021Q3 Units(M)Share vs. 20Q3Share vs. 21Q2Huawei0%-2%0%5%-5%3%4%-9%-1%2%-8%15%-37%-5%Honor0%0%5%21%34%19%-2%2%14%14%0%4%1%1%OPPO0%-4%8%-9%-1%-12%10%-1%-6%-8%1%-2%0%0%vivo0%-1%-8%-1%-8%-7%4%19%2%8%12%-2%0%0%Xiaomi-1%8%0%-10%-14%-1%-16%-11%-8%-2%5%-3%-2%-4%Apple0%0%0%0%0%0%-1%0%0%-16%-7%-12%36%6%realme0%1%-5%-4%-5%-1%5%1%0%0%0%0%0%0% 10© IDC |$600-$800市场同比下滑约22%，iPhone 12老品减量；vivo X70 Pro+ 与iQOO8Pro帮助vivo 份额超过15%；Magic 3系列进入高端市场Overall market23.3%16.1%13.6%7.8%6.0%1.7%0.0%0.