Economics | 1 December 2021 Analyst certifications and other disclosures on last page. This research report has been created by CCB International Securities Ltd. 1 预计制造业保持坚挺，支持明年的经济增长。四季度数据有望企稳回升。出口、产业升级、绿色投资及驱动下，明年工业需求预计保持旺盛，抵消建筑业需求的低迷。劳动力市场及消费复苏较为缓慢。随着疫情影响的消退，预计明年消费将进一步向常态化回归。 政策微调以应对通胀及债务风险，宏观政策偏向选择性支持。国内供应政策的调整加上海外流动性边际收紧，预计明年PPI 增势将会有所缓和。但成本压力持续，CPI通胀和国内利率预计上行。地产信贷政策边际上略有放松，但预计行业去杠杆持续，弱资质地产商将继续面临融资压力。今年收紧后，明年财政政策有望适度宽松以支持就业及收入增长。预计流动性保持稳定宽松，信贷增长趋稳，结构化信贷工具支持产业转型。 海外通胀及货币边际收紧将推高无风险利率。发达国家经济保持扩张，稳健的消费及商业投资将持续利好全球经济增长及贸易。奧米克戎(Omicron)变种病毒会是近期的一个风险因素，但各国再次进入封锁的门槛更高。随着供应瓶颈的消退，美国通胀在明年下半年有望稍微缓和，QE缩减完成后，我们预计美联储或于明年年底开始加息。经济和政策基本面，包括财政赤字与通胀溢价，意味着长端利率将面临上行压力。美元可能继续偏强。 人民币汇率升值空间不大：有别于与上一轮的联储收紧周期带来人民币汇率的贬值压力，目前海外加速配置境内证券，叠加贸易周期坚挺，继续支持对人民币资产的需求。但持续的资金流入也意味着人民币趋向高估的可能。预计央行继续抑制单边升值预期，兑美元汇率双向波动可能上升。全球流动性收紧和美元走强对中资美元债影响较大，将增加内需行业所面临的压力。 Li Cui (852) 3911 8274 cuili@ccbintl.com Lulu Jiang (852) 3911 8012 jianglulu@ccbintl.com Ying Zhang (852) 3911 8241 zhangying@ccbintl.com CCBI SECURITIES | RESEARCH Big Picture 2022 Macro Outlook (2022宏观经济展望): Policy fine-tuning to manage the economic transition (产业周期坚挺，政策微调支持转型) Economics | 30 November 2021 Analyst certifications and other disclosures on last page. This research report has been created by CCB International Securities Ltd. 2 Strong industrial cycle will continue to drive growth in 2022F as the supply transformation continues. Industrial earnings have been boosted by domestic and global manufacturing demand and the price cycle, while in the process decoupling from the credit cycle as we anticipated. In the coming year, industrial demand is likely to remain buoyant driven by domestic upgrade needs, green investment and global capex recovery, offsetting sluggish construction demand. Industry trends (higher margin and asset efficiency) and FDI data bode well for medium-term supply efficiency. Meanwhile, job and consumption recovery have been slow. We expect consumption to normalize further next year as the constraints from the pandemic fade somewhat. In the coming year policy fine-tuning is expected to be used to manage inflation and debt risks, and macro policy support will be selective. We expect PPI inflation to moderate as domestic supply policies adjust and global liquidity tightening slows world commodity prices. However, cost pressure remains, and consumer price inflation is likely to pick up. While liquidity policies have eased at the margin, deleveraging is likely to persist in construction-related sectors, with weaker players in the property sector continuing to face funding pressure. We expect macro policies to have a pro-growth tilt, with a more supportive fiscal stance next year to support job growth and household income amid pandemic concerns. The PBoC will maintain a stable liquidity environment in a reflationary environment, while credit growth is likely to stabilize, with incremental support to structural areas, in particular green investment. Global inflation and monetary policy exit from the ultra-loose stance will push up global risk-free rate. Developed markets remain in an expansionary phase, and solid consumption and business investment is positive for world growth and trade. The Omicron variant remains a near-term risk, but the bar for the world economy to return to a protracted lockdown is high. US consumer inflation could moderate somewhat in 2H next year as supply bottlenecks dissipate, although the reading will stay above the Fed’s medium-term target. We expect the Fed to act behind the curve, commencing its hikes towards the end of next year. Economic and policy fundamentals (e.g., higher fiscal deficit and likely higher inflation risk premium) imply long-term interest rates will face upward pressure. The US dollar will likely extend its strength. Limited scope for further RMB strength: A strong dollar implies limited scope of further RMB appreciation. However, different from previous periods of global tightening, RMB is still supported by the persistent global investment demand and favorable cyclical conditions. We expect more policy signals to reduce the one-way bet. Tighter global liquidity could add to the funding pressure of some corporate borrowers and widen the differentiation of offshore credits. Our forecast tables are presented in Tables 1-3 on page 2, 13, and 15 Economics | 1 December 2021 CCBI SECURITIES 3 China: Industrial cycle strong, supply transformation accelerated Industry growth has been leading the recovery this year, despite the tighter credit (Fig 1): External demand helped, with Chinese trade proving resilient with a stronger global market share than before the pandemic (Fig 2). The domestic industrial cycle also picked up further. Consolidation and restructuring within the industrial sector sin