请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021年11月9日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：申学峰 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：10月份30大中城市商品房成交面积环比下降7.46%，同比下降26.15%，成交量仍大幅低于往年同期。百城新建住宅平均价格同比上涨3.08%，房价增速进一步放缓。 房地产贷款：三季末房地产开发贷款余额同比仅增长0.02%，增速比上季末低2.8个百分点。个人住房贷款余额同比增长11.3%，增速比上季末低1.7个百分点。 政策：央行在三季度金融统计数据发布会上回应房地产热点问题，提出要支持房地产合理资金需求，随后刘鹤副总理、易纲行长等也在不同场合释放出政策缓和信号。人大授权国务院在部分地区开展新一轮房地产税改革试点工作，但短期内不会大范围施行。地方上部分城市出台了降低预售条件等政策，以缓解房企经营压力。 重点房企：10月份TOP100房企销售操盘金额环比回升1.4%；阳光城为旗下公司提供担保金额超净资产3倍，金科股份为旗下公司提供担保金额超净资产2倍；恒大集团以7700万元出售所持恒大曲美股份，并暂停出售恒大物业股份；花样年、当代置业出现美元债券违约。 债券发行与到期：10月份房地产行业共发行债券266.43亿元，通过债市净融资-369.03亿元。去年9月至今年10月，国内房地产行业债券存量规模压降了约2210亿元。 信用事件与利差：10月份新增违约债券2只，合计逾期本息1.41亿元。有6家主体和10只债券的信用级别被下调。兴业房地产行业债券信用利差（中位数）下降了9.36BP，AA级信用利差上升了20.38BP。 总结与展望：尽管近期房地产金融政策缓和，房地产开发项目得到了更多信贷资金支持，但是10月份房地产销售表现依旧不佳，房企仍旧面临销售回款受阻的问题。因此部分高负债房企的信用风险依旧很高，后期需要重点关注楼市销售情况是否会有明显好转。 相关研究报告： 3.《商品房成交量连续出现下滑，华夏幸福公布债务重组方案——2021年9月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.10.13 2.《商品房成交量大幅下滑，新增 4 只房地产债券违约——2021年8月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.09.09 3.《重点房企买地金额被限制，蓝光发展13只债券违约——2021年7月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.08.10 房地产销售依旧不佳，高负债房企信用风险仍很高 ——2021年10月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China November 9th, 2021 Summary of Opinions In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has fell by 7.46% month-on-month and 26.15% year-on-year in October, which was still significant lower than in same period of previous years. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has risen by 3.08% year-on-year, and the rate of increase has declined further. In terms of real estate loan, at the end of the third quarter, the balance of real estate development loans has only increased by 0.02% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.8 percentage points lower than that at the end of the previous quarter. The balance of personal housing loans has increased by 11.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.7 percent point lower than that at the end of the previous quarter. In terms of policies, the People’s Bank of China has responded to real estate hot issues at the third quarter financial statistics release conference and proposed to support reasonable real estate funding needs. Subsequently, Deputy Prime Minister Liu He and Governor of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang also released policy easing signals on different occasions. The National People's Congress has authorized the State Council to carry out a new round of real estate tax reform pilot work in some areas, but it will not be implemented on a large scale in the short term. Some local cities have introduced policies such as lowering the pre-sale conditions to ease the operating pressure of real estate companies. In terms of key real estate companies, the sales amount of TOP100 real estate companies in October has rebounded by 1.4% month-on-month. Yango Group has guaranteed three times the amount of net assets for its subsidiaries, and Jinke Property Group has guaranteed twice the amount of net assets for its subsidiaries. Evergrande Group has sold shares of Evergrande Qumei for 77 million yuan, and has suspended the sale of shares of Evergrande Property. Fantasia Holdings Group and Modern Land have defaulted on US dollar bonds. In terms of bond issuance and maturity, the real estate industry has issued 26.64-billion-yuan bonds in October, and has received -36.90 billion yuan of net financing through bond market. From September last year to October this year, the bond balance of the domestic real estate industry has dropped by about 221 billion yuan. In terms of credit events and spreads, 2 new defaulted bonds has newly arised, with a total overdue principal and interest of 0.14 billion yuan in September. The credit ratings of 6 entity and 10 bonds have been downgraded. The bond credit spread (median) of real estate industry has decreased by 9.36BP, and credit spread of AA has increased by 20.38BP. The Real Estate Sale Was Still Poor, and the Credit Risk of Highly Indebted Real Estate Companies Is Still High -------October 2021 Real Estate Industry Observation and Bond Market Operation Report Author: Shen Xuefeng E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 November 9th, 2021 Monthly Industry Observation of China Looking ahead, although the real estate financial policy has recently eased and real estate development projects have received more credit funding support, real est