2021年7月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：重点房企买地金额被限制，蓝光发展13只债券违约

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021年8月10日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：申学峰 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：7月份30大中城市商品房成交面积环比下降4.62%，从4月份开始市场需求热度一直在下降。百城新建住宅平均价格环比上涨0.35%，涨幅有所下降。 土地市场：7月份300城市住宅用地成交土地面积环比下降45%，土地成交溢价率环比基本持平。 政策：监管要求重点房企被买地金额不得超过销售额40%，中央政治局会议再提“房住不炒”，国务院提出加快租赁住房建设。深圳计划增加居住用地供应，厦门、上海出台政策促进租赁住房建设，温州、太原限制学区房炒作。 重点房企：阳光城、中南建设为旗下公司新增债务融资担保，首创置业将被北京首创城发吸收合并，远洋集团收购红星控股部分资产。 债券发行与到期：7月份房地产行业共发行债券1055.11亿元，通过债市净融资6.83亿元。不考虑资产支持证券，7月份境内债券市场上房地产行业AA级主体发行规模占比为6.76%。 信用事件与利差：7月份新增违约债券14只，合计逾期本金115.85亿元。其中13只的发行人是蓝光发展，蓝光发展为首次出现违约。中债房地产行业1年期的等级利差（AA-AAA）上升了13.70bp。 展望未来，重点房地产企业的经营杠杆开始受到限制，有利于约束房企激进扩张行为，降低信用风险。今年下半年房地产需求、价格的增速将下降，积压了很多存量项目的房企面临去化压力，需要关注违约风险。低杠杆经营的头部房企信用状况将保持稳定。租赁住房领域未来有很大增长空间。 相关研究报告： 1.《多地银行暂停二手房贷款，AAA级发行人比例降低——2021年6月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.7.12 2.《品房成交有所降温，AAA级利差进一步下降——2021年5月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.6.8 3.《住宅交易价格管控趋严，AA级债券信用利差上升——2021年4月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.5.12 4.《土地供应显著增加，行业债券信用利差逐步下降——2021年3月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.4.9 重点房企买地金额被限制，蓝光发展13只债券违约 ——2021年7月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China August 10th, 2021 Summary of Opinions In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 4.62% month-on-month in July, and the market demand has been cooled since April. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has risen by 0.35% month-on-month, and the rate of increase has declined. In the land market, the area of transacted residential land in “300 cities” has decreased by 45% month-on-month in July, the premium rate of land transaction basically remained stable. In terms of policies, the amount of land purchased by key real estate companies has been required not to exceed 40% of their sales. The Political Bureau meeting reiterated that “house is for living rather than speculating”, and the State Council proposed to speed up the construction of rental housing. Shenzhen has planned to increase the supply of residential land. Xiamen and Shanghai introduced policies to promote the construction of rental housing. Wenzhou and Taiyuan have restricted school district housing speculation. In terms of key real estate companies, Yango Group and Zhongnan Construction Group have provided new debt financing guarantees for their subsidiaries. Beijing Capital Land will be absorbed and merged by Beijing Capital City Development. Sino-Ocean Group has acquired some assets of Red Star Holdings. In terms of bond issuance and maturity, the real estate industry has issued 105.511-billion-yuan bonds in July, and received 0.683 billion yuan of net financing through bond market. Regardless of asset-backed securities, the issuance of AA-level entities in the real estate industry accounted for 6.76% in July. In terms of credit events and spreads, 14 bonds have defaulted with 11.585-billion-yuan overdue principal in July. 13 of these defaulted bonds was issued by Languang Development, and Languang Development has breached its contract for the first time. The 1-year grade spread (AA-AAA) of the real estate industry increased by 13.70bp. Looking ahead, the operating leverage of key real estate companies been restricted, which will restrain the radical expansion of real estate companies and reduce credit risk. In the second half of 2021, the growth rate of real estate demand and prices will decline. Real estate companies with a backlog of many stock projects are facing pressure to eliminate them, and we need The amount of land purchased by key real estate companies have been restricted, and Languang Development’s 13 bonds defaulted -------July 2021 Real Estate Industry Observation and Bond Market Operation Report Author: Shen Xuefeng E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn oPrOpMwPmRsMnMrPnNnRtM8OcM8OmOnNoMmNjMpPvNeRnMpO7NmNtPNZqMqNMYtOxP 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 August 10th, 2021 Monthly Industry Observation of China to pay attention to the risk of default. The credit status of leading real estate companies with low leverage will remain stable. There will be a lot of room for growth in the rental housing sector in the future. 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021年8月10日 远东研究·行业研究 一、行业运行动态 （一）商品房量价 1.30大中城市商品房成交降温 根据Wind数据，7月份国内30大中城市1商品房成交面积合计1715.58万平方米，环比下降4.62%（图1）。从过去10年间的平均水平看，4~7月份30城商品房成交面积会有季节性上升。而今年成交面积没有出现季节性上涨，商品房成交有所降温，需要关注后续需求变动对部分房企业绩的影响。 图1：30大中城市商品房成交面积（2011-2021