有色金属行业深度报告：铜，供需紧平衡，只待宏观预期回暖

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 华鑫证券·行业研究 证券研究报告·行业深度报告 行业表现（最近一年）  铜矿供应偏紧，新增投产有限。2018-2020年全球较少有大型矿山新增投产计划，我们预计全球新增铜矿产能分别为55.7万吨、60.1万吨和40.8万吨，全球铜矿产量增速分别为2.9%、3.1%和2%。相比于2013-2017年全球铜矿产量年均复合5.1%的增速，未来三年铜矿产量增速明显放缓。2019年铜精矿长单加工费下降，表明铜精矿供应将偏紧。  精铜产量增速放缓，产能维持扩张。据ICSG最新数据，预计2018和2019年全球精炼铜产量增速均为2.7%，而2010-2014年全球精炼铜产量年均复合增速为4.3%。根据我们初步统计，2018年新增铜项目产能193万吨，占2017年精炼产能的比重达17.7%，2018-2019年国内铜冶炼产能处于扩张的高峰时期。  电力投资企稳回升，消费总体不悲观。中国铜消费约占全球的一半，今年四季度和2019年将开工建设12条特高压工程项目，预计电网投资将恢复增长。同时，国家统计局数据显示，2018年1-10月，我国新能源汽车产量92.5万辆，同比增长95.56%，新能源汽车产业的高速发展将成为拉动铜消费的重要增长点。  经济韧性较强，铜市供需紧平衡。2018年以来，尽管摩根大通全球制造业指数高位回落，但仍维持在荣枯线之上，且10月指数企稳回升，全球经济韧性较强。我们预计未来三年精铜供给增速年均增长2.3%，而消费量增速年均增长2.8%，预计到2020年全球精铜供需缺口为9万吨，未来铜市整体处于供需紧平衡的状态。  投资建议：在铜价景气周期中，由于矿山成本相对固定，矿企可以获得更多的上涨收益，进而提高公司经营业绩。相关标的公司包括：江西铜业、紫金矿业、云南铜业和铜陵有色等，在同类上市公司中，江铜市值与矿山产铜的比值最低，是铜价上涨周期中最直接的受益者，我们建议重点关注江西铜业。  风险提示：（1）中美贸易摩擦等因素造成全球经济增速大幅下降；（2）新能源汽车行业发展不及预期，新增铜消费有限；（3）国内电力投资大幅不及预期，铜需求减弱；（4）市场系统性风险，行业估值水平大幅下降等。 -50.00%-40.00%-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%工业金属(申万)沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：徐鹏 执业证书编号：S1050516020001 联系人：谢玉磊 电话：021-54967579 邮箱：xieyl@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn 2018年12月14日 有色金属 铜：供需紧平衡，只待宏观预期回暖 增持（首次） 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 证券研究报告·行业报告 正文目录 1. 铜矿供应偏紧，新增投产有限 ................................................................... 4 1.1 铜用途广泛，资源储量集中 ············································································································································ 4 1.2 矿山产铜增速放缓，新增大型矿山较少 ························································································································ 5 1.3 全球主要矿山品位下降，开采成本上升 ························································································································ 6 1.4 加工费持续下行，铜精矿供应偏紧 ································································································································ 6 1.5 中小矿山扩产受限，铜矿产量增速放缓 ························································································································ 7 2. 精铜产量增速放缓，产能维持扩张 ............................................................... 8 2.1 精铜产量主要在亚洲，同比增速下台阶 ························································································································ 8 2.2 国内冶炼产能维持扩张 ···················································································································································· 9 2.3 再生铜产量相对稳定 ······················································································································································ 10 3. 电力投资企稳回升，消费总体不悲观 ............................................................ 11 3.1 铜消费应用不断扩展，国内保持稳健增长 ·················································································································· 11 3.2 电网工程迎来高峰期，电力投资有望恢复增长 ·········································································································· 12 3.3 新能源汽车将成为拉动铜消费的增长点 ······················································································································ 13 4. 经济韧性较强，铜市供需紧平衡 ................................................................ 14 4.1 全球制造业维持扩张，铜库存持续下降 ······················································································································ 14 4.2 消费相对稳定，供需紧平衡 ·········································································································································· 15 5. 投资建议 ................................................................................... 15 6．风险提示 ................................................................................... 16 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明3 证券研究报告·行业报告 图表目录 图表1 铜理化性质 ......................................................................................... 4 图表2 全球铜资源储量分布 ................................................................................. 4 图表3 2017年全球铜矿产量分布 ............................................................................. 4 图表4 全球矿山产铜增速趋势性放缓 ......................................................................... 5 图表5 2018-2020年全球新增铜矿情况（单位：千吨） .......................................................... 5 图表6 2018-2025年全球矿山铜品位预测 ...................................................................... 6 图表7 现货铜精矿加工费低于CSPT采购底价 .................................................................. 7 图表8 铜精矿长单加工费趋势性下行 ......................................................................... 7 图表9 全球铜矿山生产成本曲线 ............................................................................. 7 图表10 2018-2020年全球铜矿产量增速 ....................................................................... 8 图表11 2017年全球精炼铜产量区域分布 ...................................................................... 8 图表12 2017年全球各个国家精炼铜产量占比 .................