鲍维尔淡化通胀风险，美元美债走跌提振金银

东吴期货研究所 021-63123063 www.dwfutures.com 323 鲍维尔淡化通胀风险，美元美债走跌提振金银 类别品种开盘最高最低收盘单日涨跌%5日涨跌%伦敦金1737.721758.771733.231754.86-0.061.50伦敦银25.1525.6224.9725.44-0.091.71纽约金1736.001758.001734.601756.800.961.75纽约银25.2125.6825.0225.49-0.392.15上期金368.92373.96367.50373.121.091.44上期银5257.005380.005220.005352.001.592.84上金T+D366.68372.48366.16371.700.981.26上银T+D 5184.005339.005179.005316.001.643.06CRB商品186.31187.60186.03187.370.570.36LME 铜8941.509025.008908.509008.001.042.48WTI59.5259.9558.8259.880.47-2.55布伦特63.0263.4962.3863.420.35-2.22美元92.41492.47891.99992.047-0.01-1.05欧美1.18671.19271.18611.19200.051.37澳美0.76150.76610.76030.76590.080.64人民币6.54856.55266.54596.5511-0.13-0.24美10年期TIPS-0.6750-0.6742-0.7114-0.690.85-6.26美10年期国债收益率131.6563132.0938131.6563132.020.010.81美5Y5Y通胀平衡预期2.20162.20772.16662.170.00-2.39 黄金ETF VIX 15.770015.880015.360015.72-2.42-6.09白银ETF VIX31.790033.130030.600030.61-5.38-9.14黄金4月7日4月8日白银4月7日4月8日上金T+D-AU2106#N/A-1.35上银T+D-AG2106#N/A-34AU2112-AU2106#N/A2.72AG2112-AG2106#N/A103伦敦金/伦敦银69.4769.31上金/上银#N/A70.58纽约金/纽约银69.2869.13期金/期银69.2869.13金衡盎司盎司日期持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有量持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有量2021-4-81026.07-2.6232,989,09217880.1105748590002021-4-71028.69-0.3533073407.6217880.110574859000昨日库存本日库存库存增减上期金385238520上周本周增减上期银22963612291882-447912327541209313-23441贵金属市场信息表现货黄金周四涨逾20美元，上破1750美元关口，最高涨至1758.54美元，随后在高位盘整；现货白银走势与黄金相似。截至收盘，现货黄金涨1.07%，报1755.41美元/盎司；现货白银涨1.27%，报25.43美元/盎司。元指数刷新3月23日以来低点至91.99，跟随美债收益率走低，鲍威尔的谨慎言论再次传达出美联储维持超宽松立场的信号；受助于美元和美债收益率回落，日元兑美元升至两周高位，现货黄金一度涨超20美元，创3月1日以来新高至1758.76美元/盎司。宏观和基本面贵金属相关品种比价价差品种相关性iShares白银ETFSPDR黄金ETF全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上日减持2.62吨至1026.07吨。白银ETF--iSharesSilverTrust持仓较上日持平至17880.11吨，市场谨慎偏空金银。基金持仓白银可用库容量 千克交易策略库存信息美联储重申其鸽派政策立场提升了黄金吸引力，美联储主席鲍威尔表示通货膨胀料不会急升至失控状态，并且必要时央行将采取措施加以抑制。目前金价收盘站上1750美元关口，白银站稳25美元技术关口上方。激进投资者待金银回踩，多单介入，稳健投资者采取高抛低吸交易。 快手必读---黄金白银日报 东吴期货研究所 宏观与金融工程组 万 涛 021-63123175 从业证书：F0288751 投资咨询证书：Z0012259 期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究所办公地址： 上海市-黄浦区西藏南路1208号6楼 苏州市-工业园区星阳街5 号东吴证券大楼8楼 2021年4月9日星期五 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 2 页 【市场信息参考】 每日交易行情表 2021-4-9合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手AU2103.SHF365.000.000.0021000AU2104.SHF367.641.180.327,605-812476,00313,049AU2105.SHF368.780.920.25106-131,20733AU2106.SHF370.081.240.34129,360-2,1554,618,265126,259AU2108.SHF371.040.940.2627,7362,058740,95620,193AU2110.SHF371.800.480.1316,2081,029364,7879,910AU2112.SHF372.640.800.226,56588064,5541,748AU2202.SHF372.640.780.2153340811全部合约187,6549906,266,180171,203合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手AG2103.SHF5,345.007.000.1311,208-2028,2611,036AG2104.SHF5,273.00-52.00-0.9615,42430410,1411,263AG2105.SHF5,289.00-39.00-0.7220,242-63591,50011,352AG2106.SHF5,310.00-36.00-0.66429,997-1,9036,225,180768,902AG2107.SHF5,324.00-36.00-0.6644,525-134834,405102,689AG2108.SHF5,342.00-35.00-0.6419,88759254,65931,234AG2109.SHF5,361.00-42.00-0.762,9721098,6021,052AG2110.SHF5,374.00-33.00-0.60725-51,746213AG2111.SHF5,390.00-34.00-0.611,412110,1921,240AG2112.SHF5,407.00-32.00-0.5810,231-42944,5375,410AG2201.SHF5,421.00-34.00-0.61200-118222AG2202.SHF5,433.00-47.00-0.84119-932439全部合约556,942-2,8457,489,729924,452 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000AU2103.SHFAU2104.SHFAU2105.SHFAU2106.SHFAU2108.SHFAU2110.SHFAU2112.SHFAU2202.SHF上期金持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量...0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000上期银持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量... -812 -13 -2,155 2,058 1,029 880 3 -20,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000AU2103.SHFAU2104.SHFAU2105.SHFAU2106.SHFAU2108.SHFAU2110.SHFAU2112.SHFAU2202.SHF上期金持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手-202 304 -635 -1,903 -134 59 109 -5 1 -429 -1 -9 -50,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000上期银持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 3 页 金银基金持仓和CFTC非商业持仓量主要数据跟踪 -14-12-10-8-6-4-2024695010001050110011501200黄金持仓量增减（吨）黄金ETF持有量-1000-500050010001500200016000170001800019000200002100022000持仓量增减（吨）白银i s hares持仓量 (6.00)(5.00)(4.00)(3.00)(2.00)(1.00)0.00345350355360365370375380上期金远近合约价差及走势2112-2106沪金2112沪金21060.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.004000450050005500600065002020-09-092020-09-112020-09-132020-09-152020-09-172020-09-192020-09-212020-09-232020-09-252020-09-272020-09-292020-10-012020-10-032020-10-052020-10-072020-10-092020-10-112020-10-132020-10-152020-10-172020-10-192020-10-212020-10-232020-10-252020-10-27上期银远近合约价差及走势2106-2012沪银2012沪银2106 (12.00)(10.00)(8.00)(6.00)(4.00)(2.00)0.00350370390410430450470上金期现基差及走势现-近期沪金2012SGE黄金T+D(120.00)(100.00)(80.00)(60.00)(40.00)(20.00)0.0020.0040.00330038004300480053005800630068007300上银期现基差及走势现-近期沪银2012SGE白银T+D 0500100015002000250030003500400045002020-04-032020-04-182020-05-032020-05-182020-06-022020-06-17