黄金白银日报：鲍维尔透露缩减购债规模，美元美债利率齐升压制金银

东吴期货研究所 021-63123063 www.dwfutures.com 323 鲍维尔透露缩减购债规模，美元美债利率齐升压制金银 类别品种开盘最高最低收盘单日涨跌%5日涨跌%伦敦金1734.691745.521721.911727.990.06-0.99伦敦银25.0925.1924.4125.130.26-4.27纽约金1733.201744.801720.301726.800.10-0.86纽约银25.1525.1824.5125.180.65-4.21上期金366.54370.60365.78367.420.070.56上期银5260.005276.005090.005243.000.06-3.53上金T+D365.18369.00364.58366.000.010.41上银T+D 5202.005227.005053.005195.000.08-3.46CRB商品187.91187.91183.28184.35-1.90-2.35LME 铜8910.008923.008702.008779.50-2.21-3.06WTI60.8060.8657.4459.090.91-3.79布伦特63.9964.1960.9862.400.73-3.30美元92.59792.91792.51392.798-0.050.96欧美1.18131.18281.17621.17740.09-1.09澳美0.75820.76140.75630.75920.16-1.94人民币6.52946.54686.52856.5463-0.330.57美10年期TIPS-0.7072-0.6799-0.7243-0.70-1.60-19.05美10年期国债收益率132.1250132.2969131.8906132.08-0.05-0.21美5Y5Y通胀平衡预期2.16012.20082.14872.180.000.07 黄金ETF VIX 15.540016.260014.710015.58-0.76-5.97白银ETF VIX33.160034.840032.600034.753.92-8.38黄金3月24日3月25日白银3月24日3月25日上金T+D-AU2106-1.48-1.35上银T+D-AG2106-58-41AU2112-AU21062.763.1AG2112-AG2106100110伦敦金/伦敦银69.1769.07上金/上银70.4370.74纽约金/纽约银68.7768.74期金/期银68.7768.74金衡盎司盎司日期持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有量持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有量2021-3-251043.03033,534,53518057.27-63.525805546322021-3-241043.03-2.3333534534.5618120.79-101.07582596984昨日库存本日库存库存增减上期金385238520上周本周增减上期银23800762379794-28212327541209313-23441贵金属市场信息表现货黄金周四日间在不到10美元区间内盘整，晚间波动加剧，美盘前在1小时内上拉近20美元，但之后回吐全部涨幅，最终收跌0.42%，报1726.73美元/盎司。值得留意的是，白银走势与黄金出现分化，先跌后涨，最终收跌0.07%，报25.04美元/盎司。10年期美债收益率一度再次下破1.6%关口，但之后回升至1.63%附近。620亿美元的7年期美国国债拍卖情况不理想，支撑美债收益率上行。宏观和基本面贵金属相关品种比价价差品种相关性iShares白银ETFSPDR黄金ETF全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上日持平至1043.03吨。白银ETF--iSharesSilverTrust持仓较上日持减持63.52至18057.27吨，市场谨慎偏空金银。基金持仓白银可用库容量 千克交易策略库存信息美元指数连续第三个交易日上涨，创去年11月13日以来高点至92.92；欧元触及四个月新低，投资者担心，欧洲新冠疫苗接种计划遭遇的挫折将破坏经济增长。美元和美债收益率上涨令金银承压。目前金价在1700美元整数关口勉强支撑，白银多空胶着25美元技术关口。谨慎投资者短期维持观望，激进投资者白银逢高沽空。 快手必读---黄金白银日报 东吴期货研究所 宏观与金融工程组 万 涛 021-63123175 从业证书：F0288751 投资咨询证书：Z0012259 期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究所办公地址： 上海市-黄浦区西藏南路1208号6楼 苏州市-工业园区星阳街5 号东吴证券大楼8楼 2021年3月26日星期五 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 2 页 【市场信息参考】 每日交易行情表 2021-3-26合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手AU2103.SHF365.000.00Fetching...Fetching...Fetching...Fetching...Fetching...AU2104.SHF366.962.440.327,605-812476,00313,049AU2105.SHF367.661.300.25106-131,20733AU2106.SHF367.221.700.34129,360-2,1554,618,265126,259AU2108.SHF368.121.620.2627,7362,058740,95620,193AU2110.SHF369.161.740.1316,2081,029364,7879,910AU2112.SHF370.321.440.226,56588064,5541,748AU2202.SHF369.720.000.2153340811全部合约187,6339906,266,180171,203合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手AG2103.SHF5,345.007.000.1311,208-2028,2611,036AG2104.SHF5,174.00-27.00-0.9615,42430410,1411,263AG2105.SHF5,195.00-30.00-0.7220,242-63591,50011,352AG2106.SHF5,213.00-28.00-0.66429,997-1,9036,225,180768,902AG2107.SHF5,235.00-26.00-0.6644,525-134834,405102,689AG2108.SHF5,251.00-29.00-0.6419,88759254,65931,234AG2109.SHF5,274.00-23.00-0.762,9721098,6021,052AG2110.SHF5,300.00-13.00-0.60725-51,746213AG2111.SHF5,302.00-23.00-0.611,412110,1921,240AG2112.SHF5,323.00-20.00-0.5810,231-42944,5375,410AG2201.SHF5,369.00-3.00-0.61200-118222AG2202.SHF5,364.00-15.00-0.84119-932439全部合约556,942-2,8457,489,729924,452 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000AU2103.SHFAU2104.SHFAU2105.SHFAU2106.SHFAU2108.SHFAU2110.SHFAU2112.SHFAU2202.SHF上期金持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量...0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000上期银持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量... -812 -13 -2,155 2,058 1,029 880 3 -20,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000AU2103.SHFAU2104.SHFAU2105.SHFAU2106.SHFAU2108.SHFAU2110.SHFAU2112.SHFAU2202.SHF上期金持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手-202 304 -635 -1,903 -134 59 109 -5 1 -429 -1 -9 -50,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000上期银持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 3 页 金银基金持仓和CFTC非商业持仓量主要数据跟踪 -15-10-50510152095010001050110011501200黄金持仓量增减（吨）黄金ETF持有量-1000-500050010001500200016000170001800019000200002100022000持仓量增减（吨）白银i s hares持仓量 (6.00)(5.00)(4.00)(3.00)(2.00)(1.00)0.00340345350355360365370375380385390上期金远近合约价差及走势2112-2106沪金2112沪金21060.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.004000450050005500600065002020-09-092020-09-112020-09-132020-09-152020-09-172020-09-192020-09-212020-09-232020-09-252020-09-272020-09-292020-10-012020-10-032020-10-052020-10-072020-10-092020-10-112020-10-132020-10-152020-10-172020-10-192020-10-212020-10-232020-10-252020-10-27上期银远近合约价差及走势2106-2012沪银2012沪银2106 (12.00)(10.00)(8.00)(6.00)(4.00)(2.00)0.00350370390410430450470上金期现基差及走势现-近期沪金2012SGE黄金T+D(120.00)(100.00)(80.00)(60.00)(40.00)(20.00)0.0020.0040.00330038004300480053005800630068007300上银期现基差及走势现-近期沪银2012SGE白银T+D 05001000150020002500300035004000450