黄金白银日报：美联储考虑加息前缩减QE，美债利率走升抑制金银

东吴期货研究所 021-63123063 www.dwfutures.com 323 美联储考虑加息前缩减QE，美债利率走升抑制金银 类别品种开盘最高最低收盘单日涨跌%5日涨跌%伦敦金1745.511749.381732.651738.940.14-0.28伦敦银25.3525.5425.2025.480.220.84纽约金1741.301745.901732.701734.90-0.65-0.48纽约银25.4125.5925.2425.540.060.85上期金367.88370.56366.30366.90-0.69-1.56上期银5269.005349.005268.005309.00-0.04-0.60上金T+D365.73369.60365.65366.40-0.55-1.30上银T+D 5200.005313.005190.005274.000.15-0.43CRB商品188.14192.66188.14192.452.293.06LME 铜8905.009104.008893.009074.501.971.66WTI60.4463.4460.3862.73-0.675.75布伦特64.0166.9063.8866.19-0.595.15美元91.82891.82991.57491.609-0.09-0.60欧美1.19481.19871.19471.19860.050.73澳美0.76410.77380.76350.77370.121.50人民币6.54016.54266.52936.52970.22-0.35美10年期TIPS-0.7171-0.6899-0.7217-0.720.42-6.97美10年期国债收益率132.1094132.1875131.7813131.940.010.15美5Y5Y通胀平衡预期2.16592.17962.15792.170.000.31 黄金ETF VIX 14.200014.720014.050014.693.02-3.99白银ETF VIX28.340028.940027.350027.57-3.70-6.54黄金4月13日4月14日白银4月13日4月14日上金T+D-AU2106-0.82-1.33上银T+D-AG2106-23-44AU2112-AU21062.62.84AG2112-AG21069389伦敦金/伦敦银68.9368.46上金/上银70.5469.55纽约金/纽约银68.6268.00期金/期银68.6268.00金衡盎司盎司日期持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有量持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有量2021-4-141022.86-3.2132,886,04617880.1105748590002021-4-131026.07032989091.8117880.110574859000昨日库存本日库存库存增减上期金385238520上周本周增减上期银22824382258223-2421512327541209313-23441白银可用库容量 千克交易策略库存信息鲍威尔表示美国经济势将更强劲增长，美联储正在等待价格和就业达到目标后再考虑加息，美债收益率攀升令金价承压。国际金价上方1750美元阻力明显，白银重跌至25美元关口下方。国内，稳健投资者采取区间波段操作，激进投资者短期逢低多单持有。激进投资者待金银回踩，多单介入，稳健投资者采取高抛低吸交易。iShares白银ETFSPDR黄金ETF全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上日减持3.21吨至1022.86吨。白银ETF--iSharesSilverTrust持仓较上日持平至17880.11吨，市场谨慎偏空金银。基金持仓贵金属市场信息表周三现货黄金亚盘触及1749.2美元的日高后回撤，抹去前一日的大部分涨幅，最终收跌0.54%，报1735.98美元/盎司；现货白银波幅较黄金小，在25美元上方盘整，收盘微涨0.18%，报25.37美元/盎司。美元指数刷新近四周低点至91.57，因美债收益率持于近期高位下方，降低了美元的相对吸引力，现货黄金收跌近10美元，美债收益率回升打击了无收益黄金的吸引力，盖过了美元走软带来的支撑。宏观和基本面贵金属相关品种比价价差品种相关性 快手必读---黄金白银日报 东吴期货研究所 宏观与金融工程组 万 涛 021-63123175 从业证书：F0288751 投资咨询证书：Z0012259 期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究所办公地址： 上海市-黄浦区西藏南路1208号6楼 苏州市-工业园区星阳街5 号东吴证券大楼8楼 2021年4月15日星期四 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 2 页 【市场信息参考】 每日交易行情表 2021-4-15合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手AU2103.SHF365.000.000.0021000AU2104.SHF365.281.180.327,605-812476,00313,049AU2105.SHF366.500.920.25106-131,20733AU2106.SHF366.201.240.34129,360-2,1554,618,265126,259AU2108.SHF367.240.940.2627,7362,058740,95620,193AU2110.SHF368.000.480.1316,2081,029364,7879,910AU2112.SHF369.780.800.226,56588064,5541,748AU2202.SHF370.400.780.2153340811全部合约187,6549906,266,180171,203合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手AG2103.SHF5,345.007.000.1311,208-2028,2611,036AG2104.SHF5,365.00-52.00-0.9615,42430410,1411,263AG2105.SHF5,391.00-39.00-0.7220,242-63591,50011,352AG2106.SHF5,412.00-36.00-0.66429,997-1,9036,225,180768,902AG2107.SHF5,431.00-36.00-0.6644,525-134834,405102,689AG2108.SHF5,452.00-35.00-0.6419,88759254,65931,234AG2109.SHF5,467.00-42.00-0.762,9721098,6021,052AG2110.SHF5,488.00-33.00-0.60725-51,746213AG2111.SHF5,501.00-34.00-0.611,412110,1921,240AG2112.SHF5,518.00-32.00-0.5810,231-42944,5375,410AG2201.SHF5,542.00-34.00-0.61200-118222AG2202.SHF5,552.00-47.00-0.84119-932439全部合约556,942-2,8457,489,729924,452 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000AU2103.SHFAU2104.SHFAU2105.SHFAU2106.SHFAU2108.SHFAU2110.SHFAU2112.SHFAU2202.SHF上期金持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量...0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000上期银持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量... -812 -13 -2,155 2,058 1,029 880 3 -20,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000AU2103.SHFAU2104.SHFAU2105.SHFAU2106.SHFAU2108.SHFAU2110.SHFAU2112.SHFAU2202.SHF上期金持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手-202 304 -635 -1,903 -134 59 109 -5 1 -429 -1 -9 -50,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000上期银持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 3 页 金银基金持仓和CFTC非商业持仓量主要数据跟踪 -14-12-10-8-6-4-2024690095010001050110011501200黄金持仓量增减（吨）黄金ETF持有量-1000-500050010001500200016000170001800019000200002100022000持仓量增减（吨）白银i s hares持仓量 (5.00)(4.50)(4.00)(3.50)(3.00)(2.50)(2.00)(1.50)(1.00)(0.50)0.00345350355360365370375380上期金远近合约价差及走势2112-2106沪金2112沪金21060.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.004000450050005500600065002020-09-092020-09-112020-09-132020-09-152020-09-172020-09-192020-09-212020-09-232020-09-252020-09-272020-09-292020-10-012020-10-032020-10-052020-10-072020-10-092020-10-112020-10-132020-10-152020-10-172020-10-192020-10-212020-10-232020-10-252020-10-27上期银远近合约价差及走势2106-2012沪银2012沪银2106 (12.00)(10.00)(8.00)(6.00)(4.00)(2.00)0.00350370390410430450470上金期现基差及走势现-近期沪金2012SGE黄金T+D(120.00)(100.00)(80.00)(60.00)(40.00)(20.00)0.0020.0040.00330038004300480053005800630068007300上银期现基差及走势现-近期沪银2012SGE白银T+D 0500100015002000250030003500400045002020-04-102020-04-252020-05-102020-05-252