金属行业高频数据周报：全国实体经济部门四季度杠杆率近一年来首降

全国实体经济部门四季度杠杆率近一年来首降 流动性：1年期国债收益率连续三周持续回升。基建地产链条：全国实体经济部门四季度杠杆率近一年来首降。工业品链条：本周电解铝价格大涨3.5%、利润大增476元/吨。出口链条：全球PMI新订单连续2个月环比下滑。比价关系：螺矿价格比值继续扩大。估值分位：投资建议和建议关注标的。风险提示。 -13%-4%5%14%23%10-1901-2004-2007-20钢铁行业沪深300-10%3%16%29%42%10-1901-2004-2007-20有色金属沪深300投资观点 020,00040,00060,00080,0002008-01-012012-01-012016-01-012020-01-01:::0123452011-02-012014-02-012017-02-012020-02-01:10::10-:100123452011-01-012014-01-012017-01-012020-01-01:10:1:10-1原点资产 203040506001000200030002012-032015-032018-03BCI:()-15-10-50510151,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002011-022014-022017-022020-02上证A股指数:月M1:同比:-M2:同比-50-30-101030502011-022014-022017-022020-02::-40-2002040602011-022014-022017-022020-02 0200040006000133351272192912820182019202020210200400600134198121282018201920202021-30-20-1001020302014-042017-042020-040601201802402011-032014-032017-032020-03 1,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002014-01-022017-01-022020-01-02203550658012412891252018201920202021-5000500100015001,5002,2002,9003,6004,3005,0002012-06-052016-06-052020-06-05::HRB400 20mm:1024385266802008-042011-042014-042017-042020-04 500100015002000250011325374920162017201820192020202170%75%80%85%90%95%100%14710131619222528313437404346495220162017201820192020202160901201501802013-10-112016-10-112019-10-11:::::10305070901112131425220202021 204060801001201401601234567891011122017201820192020-20-10010202.02.53.03.54.04.52011-012014-012017-012020-015001,0001,5002,0002,5002011-02-032014-02-032017-02-032020-02-03():(A13.5%,0.7%S):::2004006008001,0001,2002011-11-182014-11-182017-11-182020-11-18 8,00013,00018,00023,00028,00033,00038,00043,0002008-07-082012-07-082016-07-082020-07-080204060801331664813102920172018201920202021253545552014-022017-022020-02PMI:PMI::506070802017-032018-032019-032020-03::::::::: 020406080113253749201620172018201920202021-800-20040010002,0003,0004,0005,0002012-06-052016-06-052020-06-05::1.0mm:-120-80-400408005101520252011-012014-012017-012020-01M1::::03691215182114710131619222528313437404346495220172018201920202021 -60-2020601001401%3%5%7%2016-052018-052020-05261014182011-02-032014-02-032017-02-032020-02-03::Li2CO3 99%:::LiOH 56.5%:,::99.5%:2004006008001,0002005-03-312010-03-312015-03-312020-03-315152535452016-07-072018-07-072020-07-072040608010012014030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0002010-12-042013-12-042016-12-042019-12-04::::1,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,0002011-02-042015-02-042019-02-04:::A00:: 01002003004005006000204060801001202001-02-092007-02-092013-02-092019-02-09:LME:LME-3,000-1,0001,0003,0005,0007,0002011-02-042015-02-042019-02-041,0001,3001,6001,9002,2002026323844502015-05-052017-05-052019-05-05::01020304050602012-01-312015-01-312018-01-312021-01-31 -1,000-50005001,0001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002011-01-042014-01-042017-01-042020-01-04::-::::-1005001,1001,7002011-01-012014-01-012017-01-012020-01-01--1.01.41.82.23456789102012-01-012016-01-012020-01-01//0100200300400-400-20002004006008002013-05-042016-05-042019-05-04/1.13--300-0%40%80%120%2013-11-152016-11-152019-11-15204060801001202001-02-042007-02-042013-02-042019-02-04 5008001,1001,4002010-12-032013-12-032016-12-032019-12-03CCFI:CICFI:048121604008001,2001,6002,0002001-022007-022013-022019-02:::::()25354555652011-022014-022017-022020-02:ISM:PMI::PMI:506070802011-02-122014-02-122017-02-122020-02-12 -15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%+14.06%+13.51%+12.55%+11.64%+10.52%0%4%8%12%16%01234560.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02013-02-052016-02-052019-02-05:::::/:0123452013-02-052016-02-052019-02-05:::::/: