20年业绩同比大增，期待21年浙石化二期投产贡献业绩 事件：点评： 浙石化一期贡献主要增量，公司20年业绩同比大增：化纤行业下游需求回暖，聚酯业务盈利有望大幅改善：浙石化二期进入试生产，21年炼化板块业绩可期：盈利预测、估值与评级：风险提示： 要点 91,425 82,500 121,757 183,521 243,539 86,097 76,869 100,657 153,872 204,625 1,632 1,788 5,976 7,524 8,781 163 513 1,826 2,753 3,653 740 778 974 1,468 1,948 340 389 487 734 974 956 981 1,826 2,753 3,653 1,335 943 2,797 3,161 2,866 706 901 442 322 656 2,275 3,139 13,883 19,482 26,989 2,294 3,144 13,888 19,487 26,994 326 187 828 1,162 1,609 1,968 2,957 13,060 18,326 25,385 360 750 5,672 7,989 10,082 1,608 2,207 7,388 10,337 15,303 0.26 0.35 1.09 1.53 2.27 4,835 (2,052) 24,001 34,799 42,180 1,608 2,207 7,388 10,337 15,303 1,632 1,788 5,976 7,524 8,781 (4,819) 6,000 3,279 3,154 3,199 6,414 (12,046) 7,357 13,784 14,898 (39,778) (35,167) (37,583) (30,178) (4,844) (37,169) (36,861) (38,000) (30,500) (5,500) 5,435 6,732 0 0 0 (8,044) (5,038) 417 322 656 38,999 35,583 18,967 4,643 (28,333) 2,475 0 459 0 0 34,259 37,462 14,559 11,069 (20,886) 15,070 17,921 13,190 29,232 27,898 4,349 (1,690) 5,385 9,265 9,003 121,415 182,587 230,601 285,963 313,779 14,853 12,878 18,264 27,528 36,531 127 86 86 86 86 1,915 2,049 3,024 4,558 6,048 246 0 0 0 0 1,371 1,201 1,528 2,302 3,055 6,502 26,585 34,823 53,253 70,830 3,951 9,355 9,355 9,355 9,355 32,117 55,596 71,587 103,973 135,070 0 0 0 0 0 5,435 6,732 6,732 6,732 6,732 20,881 71,267 89,819 106,426 113,153 51,504 42,248 51,111 54,083 43,188 3,364 4,024 4,933 5,330 5,718 0 0 0 0 0 527 1,379 1,379 1,379 1,379 89,298 126,991 159,014 181,990 178,709 85,636 141,019 168,769 209,070 216,082 25,030 30,042 18,601 16,670 14,785 17,719 35,567 46,573 71,195 94,678 4,800 4,779 6,258 9,567 12,723 675 897 1,324 1,996 2,648 0 0 0 0 0 54,960 81,172 82,921 110,223 136,235 30,326 58,403 83,403 88,403 78,403 0 1,000 2,000 10,000 1,000 196 200 200 200 200 30,677 59,848 85,847 98,847 79,847 35,779 41,568 61,833 76,893 97,697 6,291 6,291 6,750 6,750 6,750 7,037 7,111 15,350 16,383 17,563 7,614 9,118 15,012 21,051 30,592 20,932 22,555 37,147 44,219 54,940 14,847 19,013 24,685 32,674 42,756 5.8% 6.8% 17.3% 16.2% 16.0% 5.3% 6.0% 18.3% 16.3% 15.6% 3.5% 3.9% 13.4% 12.2% 12.0% 2.5% 3.8% 11.4% 10.6% 11.1% 1.8% 2.7% 6.1% 5.6% 6.3% 1.6% 1.6% 5.7% 6.4% 8.1% 7.7% 9.8% 19.9% 23.4% 27.9% 3.1% 2.3% 9.2% 10.9% 14.3% 71% 77% 73% 73% 69% 0.58 0.68 0.86 0.94 0.99 0.47 0.36 0.44 0.46 0.47 0.35 0.23 0.33 0.36 0.54 2.00 1.85 2.03 2.29 3.04 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 14% 6% 6% 6% 6% 0.10 0.12 0.48 0.68 0.94 0.77 (0.33) 3.56 5.16 6.25 3.33 3.59 5.50 6.55 8.14 14.53 13.11 18.04 27.19 36.08 134 97 31 22 15 10.3 9.5 6.2 5.2 4.2 61 69 17 14 11 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 泰达宏利 oPtQqMpPsQpPpPoOnOqQoO7N8Q8OmOpPmOnMkPpPmOjMmMoP9PrQqMNZmQoNMYqQyQ