2020年度业绩预告点评：20年业绩承压，期待炼化项目年底投产

20年业绩承压，期待炼化项目年底投产 事件：点评： 2020年PTA、长丝价格大幅回落，差异化丝龙头业绩承压：下游需求回暖叠加新产能投放，公司2021年业绩有望大幅改善：盛虹炼化一体化项目预计年底投产，完成“一滴油”到“一根丝”全产业链布局：盈利预测、估值与评级：风险提示：18,440 24,888 20,967 24,080 81,074 1558.26% 34.96% -15.75% 14.85% 236.68% 847 1,614 365 1,529 6,448 270.61% 90.59% -77.37% 318.67% 321.61% 0.21 0.40 0.08 0.32 1.33 6.54% 11.51% 2.47% 9.45% 29.28% 55 29 152 36 9 3.6 3.3 3.8 3.4 2.5 -13%18%49%80%112%10-1902-2005-2009-20东方盛虹沪深300 要点 18,440 24,888 20,967 24,080 81,074 15,895 21,868 19,744 21,505 71,110 773 1,157 1,256 1,325 1,390 94 135 113 130 439 174 246 207 238 802 139 256 216 248 835 205 185 156 179 601 188 524 217 117 40 6 134 0 0 0 1,102 1,898 431 1,827 7,735 1,111 1,906 437 1,835 7,742 265 294 73 307 1,297 847 1,612 363 1,527 6,445 (0) (2) (2) (2) (2) 847 1,614 365 1,529 6,448 0.21 0.40 0.08 0.32 1.33 1,388 5,215 2,636 3,549 15,739 847 1,614 365 1,529 6,448 773 1,157 1,256 1,325 1,390 3,764 (2,063) (1,817) (51) 1,825 (3,996) 4,507 2,832 746 6,076 (1,017) (4,684) (734) (1,025) (1,000) (1,445) (5,907) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (2) 49 0 0 0 431 1,174 266 (25) 0 (245) 1,568 (3,649) (1,995) (1,171) 5,799 0 806 0 0 4,651 5,916 (3,835) (1,751) (520) 3,435 4,914 312 950 17,209 172 2,091 (1,747) 529 13,568 21,869 35,042 32,285 32,885 55,408 2,717 5,312 3,564 4,094 17,662 0 694 694 694 694 189 254 204 234 787 443 103 87 100 337 32 108 73 83 280 3,082 2,859 2,581 2,811 9,294 1,042 750 680 736 1,753 7,824 10,457 8,224 9,123 32,036 0 639 639 639 639 105 56 56 56 56 8,412 13,354 13,248 13,018 12,679 877 2,985 2,764 2,598 2,473 783 1,431 1,403 1,375 1,347 695 695 695 695 695 710 3,342 3,342 3,342 3,342 14,046 24,585 24,062 23,762 23,372 8,912 19,742 16,219 15,419 32,107 3,324 6,115 1,780 1,020 0 896 2,266 2,764 3,226 11,022 1,340 2,502 2,764 3,226 11,022 590 404 340 391 1,316 0 0 0 0 0 7,523 13,290 9,618 8,317 24,506 623 2,285 2,785 3,285 3,785 0 995 995 995 995 462 1,307 1,307 1,307 1,307 1,389 6,453 6,601 7,101 7,601 12,957 15,300 16,066 17,466 23,301 7,017 7,017 7,823 7,823 7,823 3,564 4,825 4,861 5,014 5,659 2,375 2,039 1,965 3,214 8,406 12,952 14,016 14,784 16,186 22,023 5 1,284 1,282 1,280 1,278 13.80% 12.13% 5.83% 10.69% 12.29% 11.17% 13.84% 9.22% 13.59% 11.40% 6.97% 9.19% 3.23% 8.09% 9.69% 6.03% 7.66% 2.08% 7.62% 9.55% 4.59% 6.48% 1.74% 6.35% 7.95% 3.87% 4.60% 1.13% 4.64% 11.63% 6.54% 11.51% 2.47% 9.45% 29.28% 6.18% 8.81% 2.79% 8.17% 30.70% 40.75% 56.34% 50.24% 46.89% 57.95% 1.04 0.79 0.86 1.10 1.31 0.63 0.57 0.59 0.76 0.93 2.61 1.29 2.10 3.05 4.61 4.09 3.00 4.24 5.76 11.11 0.94% 0.99% 0.99% 0.99% 0.99% 0.76% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.02% 2.10% 1.04% 0.49% 0.05% 1.11% 0.74% 0.74% 0.74% 0.74% 23.81% 15.41% 16.75% 16.75% 16.75% 0.10 0.10 0.03 0.13 0.53 0.34 1.29 0.55 0.73 3.26 3.21 3.48 3.06 3.35 4.56 4.58 6.18 4.34 4.98 16.77 55 29 152 36 9 3.6 3.3 3.8 3.4 2.5 41 26 50 29 10 0.87% 0.87% 0.23% 1.10% 4.65% 原点资产