2020年业绩预增公告点评：需求增长，磷肥业务量价提升

需求增长，磷肥业务量价提升 事件：受益主营产品价格回升，公司2020下半年业绩反弹。环保政策推动供给侧改革，公司身为龙头明显受益。携手多氟多，强化自身资源优势。 盈利预测、估值与评级：风险提示： 9.07 22.67 -5.18 20.65 41.90 35.33 要点 52,979 53,976 59,399 64,694 70,824 45,152 46,831 53,086 57,493 62,763 1,904 1,895 1,908 1,926 1,942 500 475 475 453 496 2,528 2,614 2,876 3,133 3,430 1,614 1,521 1,674 1,823 1,996 2,536 2,346 1,366 1,407 1,436 53 75 83 90 99 115 97 0 0 0 469 347 266 378 684 515 408 322 538 776 264 231 54 90 130 251 178 268 448 646 129 26 0 0 0 123 152 268 448 646 0.09 0.11 0.19 0.24 0.35 3,192 4,179 4,760 4,226 4,037 123 152 268 448 646 1,904 1,895 1,908 1,926 1,942 (1,935) 5,977 (1,229) (176) 293 3,100 (3,844) 3,812 2,028 1,156 (1,278) (636) (411) (325) (300) (1,143) (528) (613) (300) (300) 508 300 0 0 0 (642) (407) 202 (25) 0 (923) (4,360) (585) (2,577) (2,205) 106 5 (7) 412 0 (419) 3,307 787 (1,583) (769) 3,451 (11,394) 11,467 2,680 2,614 1,050 (792) 3,764 1,324 1,532 67,821 59,995 72,512 74,469 76,960 12,636 11,086 14,850 16,174 17,706 26 19 19 19 19 4,247 3,791 5,346 5,822 6,374 2,262 216 2,673 2,911 3,187 929 237 1,188 1,294 1,416 9,742 7,835 9,990 9,688 9,327 926 1,940 2,075 2,207 2,361 37,114 29,795 42,518 45,022 47,929 0 298 298 298 298 1,921 2,221 2,221 2,221 2,221 21,397 20,419 19,261 17,778 16,254 687 933 1,022 924 850 3,980 3,860 3,782 3,702 3,628 87 87 87 87 87 45 160 160 160 160 30,706 30,200 29,994 29,447 29,031 61,559 53,473 65,727 66,824 68,669 23,811 28,551 29,338 31,253 30,484 5,349 4,036 6,370 7,474 8,159 17,198 7,631 15,926 17,248 18,829 2,781 2,408 2,970 3,235 3,541 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) 55,184 47,321 59,647 60,744 62,590 3,069 2,747 2,747 2,747 2,747 0 0 0 0 0 771 699 699 699 699 6,374 6,152 6,080 6,080 6,080 6,262 6,523 6,785 7,644 8,290 1,428 1,432 1,426 1,838 1,838 5,839 5,957 5,984 6,029 6,094 (3,054) (2,899) (2,657) (2,255) (1,673) 4,377 4,378 4,640 5,500 6,146 1,885 2,145 2,145 2,145 2,145 14.8% 13.2% 10.6% 11.1% 11.4% 9.5% 9.1% 5.1% 5.8% 5.8% 5.4% 5.0% 1.9% 2.8% 3.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 2.8% 3.5% 5.8% 8.1% 10.5% 3.9% 2.9% 2.4% 3.9% 4.7% 91% 89% 91% 90% 89% 0.67 0.63 0.71 0.74 0.77 0.50 0.46 0.55 0.58 0.62 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.16 0.18 1.97 1.56 1.88 2.03 2.15 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 5% 4% 2% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 57% 17% 17% 17% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.24 2.92 3.34 2.30 2.20 3.07 3.06 3.25 2.99 3.34 37.11 37.68 41.66 35.20 38.53 82 66 37 29 20 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.1 9 11 16 13 12 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 万得资讯