2011年3月18日央行上调人民币存款准备金率点评：通胀压力仍处高位、政策着力稳定预期

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 of 7 ¾ We believe that the main focus of PBOC to raise bank deposit reserve ratio is to cope with the remarkable inflation pressure and stabilize inflation expectation. Although CPI in February rose at same pace as it did in January, the inflation pressure remains significant. While PBOC’s survey showing a lower inflation expectation in Q1, the seasonal adjusted data did not show an alleviated inflation expectation in short term, especially given the fact that food and pork prices keep rising and vegetable price may enter into a new two-year appreciation cycle. Despite that we believe the annual inflation level is still controllable, under the circumstance of rising non-food and oil prices and, especially, uncertainties in Middle East, stabilization of inflation expectation would be the primary target of short term monetary policy. ¾ The secondary focus of hiking bank deposit reserve ratio is to ease the open market repurchase pressure in March and April and maintain a reasonable level of liquidity. Given the average amount of RMB700 Billion of central bank bills will mature in March and April, the pressure of open market operation is relatively heavy. Short-term interbank liquidity and real economy liquidity have been improved, but expectation for interest rate hike still exists. As a result, increase in bank deposit reserve ratio helped to ease the pressure of open market operation and reinforce achievements from previous monetary tightening. ¾ We have always believed in interrelationship between changes in deposit reserve ratio and flow of foreign exchanges. The major impacts of the Japan earthquake are appreciation of Yen, closure of carry trade position and capital inflow to Japan, which would affect flow of foreign exchanges of China. Although the nuclear crisis has not yet been settled, we believe the Japanese economy will be impacted significantly by the earthquake. Economic downturn and worsened fiscal status would put pressure on long term performance of Yen. If Japan’s economic downturn continues, the loose monetary policy would make Yen be the home currency for carry trade again and capital flow out of Japan. Therefore, raising deposit reserve ratio right after the announcement of G7’s intervention of Yen would prevent fluctuation in foreign exchanges that would cause liquidity pressure. ¾ To sum up, given the current situation of high inflation expectation, we believe the tightened monetary policy is going to be remained for a while. Also, in order to exit the period of negative interest, there will be interest rate hike for at least once, probably at the beginning of Q2. Finally, deposit reserve ratio changes would depend on movement in foreign exchanges. Comments on PBoC’s Deposit Reserve Ratio Hike on March 18 Inflation Pressure Stay High; Policy to Stabilize Expectation Macro ReportDr. David XIE （86-755）82943724 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn Dr. Cliff ZHAO （852）31896126 wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cn Dr. Binbin SUN （86-755）82943231 sunbb@cmschina.com.cn Qing LI （852）31896142 qingli@cmschina.com.cn Research Department CMS (HK) 22 March 2011 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 of 7 事件： 中国人民银行决定，从2011年3月25日起，上调存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金率0.5个百分点。 评论： 1、我们认为央行再次上调商业银行存款准备金率，其目标主要是维持紧缩态势以应对当前仍处高位的通胀压力，同时稳定通胀预期。2月份CPI虽与1月份持平，但是总体通胀压力依然较高，1季度央行调查的通胀预期虽然有所下降，但是季调后数据显示短期内通胀预期并不低。特别是食品类价格继续走高，蔬菜价格可能进入一轮新的两年上涨周期，猪肉价格也持续上升。虽然我们认为全年通胀可控概率较高，但是在当前非食品价格和石油价格的上涨压力下，特别是中东北非局势难以预料，稳定预期必然是当前央行货币政策的重心。 2、目标之二是缓解3、4月份公开市场回笼压力，把好流动性的总闸门。3、4月份平均到期的央票和正回购约7000亿，公开市场操作压力较大，短期内银行间市场和社会资金流动性均有所改善，但是市场对于加息的预期依然存在。此时，上调存款准备金率无疑有助于缓解公开市场操作压力，巩固前期紧缩政策的效果。 3、我们一贯的观点认为存款准备金率变动与外汇资金流动状况密切相关，3月11日日本地震海啸引发日元汇率急剧上升、日元套息交易平仓、资金回流日本，这或多或少会影响到我国整体外汇资金的流动状况，虽然核危机事件仍未尘埃落定，但我们认为本次地震对日本经济的负面影响应该会比较深远。日本经济下滑和财政恶化将会对日元汇率的长期走势形成压力。未来如果日本经济一蹶不振，日本央行持续进行量化宽松，会使日元再次成为套息交易(carry trade)的主要载体，资金会重新流出日本。特别是上周末七大工业国（G-7）财长和央行行长，周五在电话会议后发布了联合公报，联合干预日元汇率。此时上调存款准备金率意在防范外汇资金波动所造成的流动性压力。 4、总之，在当前通胀预期依然维持高位的情况下，我们预计紧缩货币政策还将维持一段时间，改善持续负利率的状态是加息的一个目标，因此未来至少还有一次加息，时点可能在2季度初；存款准备金的调整主要参考外汇资金变动情况。 2011年3月18日央行上调人民币存款准备金率点评 宏观报告通胀压力仍处高位、政策着力稳定预期 招商证券（香港）研究部 谢亚轩 博士 （86-755）82943724 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn 赵文利 博士 （852）31896126 wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cn 孙彬彬 博士 （86-755）82943231 sunbb@cmschina.com.cn 李青 （852）31896142 qingli@cmschina.com.cn 2011年3月22日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 3 of 7宏观报告1、通胀压力仍处高位，政策着力稳定预期 我们认为央行再次上调商业银行存款准备金率，其目标主要是维持紧缩态势以应对当前仍处高位的通胀压力，同时稳定通胀预期。2月份CPI虽与1月份持平，但是总体通胀压力依然较高，1季度央行调查的通胀预期虽然有所下降，但是季调后数据显示短期内通胀预期并不低。特别是食品类价格继续走高，蔬菜价格可能进入一轮新的两年上涨周期，猪肉价格也持续上升。虽然我们认为全年通胀可控概率较高，但是在当前非食品价格和石油价格的上涨压力下，特别是中东北非局势难以预料，稳定预期必然是当前央行货币政策的重心。 图1：通胀水平仍处高位 图2：季调后通胀预期仍然较高 ‐15‐10‐505101520Jan‐05Jun‐05Nov‐05Apr‐06Sep‐06Feb‐07Jul‐07Dec‐07May‐08Oct‐08Mar‐09Aug‐09Jan‐10Jun‐10Nov‐10%CPIPPIPPIRM‐4 ‐2 0 2 4 6 8 10 505560657075