华润置地：等待下一场资产注入

ࡁտშ৭Ĉhttp://research.kgi.com 2010ѐ09͡27͟ 1 ঔݑϮ୥៉ ڠ႔፛ፘ៉ ᛂэٿ̋᎕ࢬ᎝ޙᓁ (π͞Ѽ)1,081,458583,463285,986-ҝш (π͞Ѽ)519,087458,447285,986-ҝшܧ (π͞Ѽ)562,37117,5530-ވг˭ & ̳Вડા (π͞Ѽ)0107,4630͵֣ᗬந΀࿰Ҥۏயᆊࣃ (Ѻ༱ˠϔ။)6,0541,905834ݱξ ќᔉ͟ഇ ᝋৈ (%)᎕ࢬ᎝ޙᓁ (Ѻ༱Ѽ)ϡ౉႔ڠCB DีϫSep-07100433,650થຽ൑ᐁරማض჊֧Nov-07100260,000ҝш֧჊ضှරማݑDec-07100569,000થຽ૱э઼ᅫۤડJun-091001,345,903ҝш֧჊ضරማִݑSep-09100277,793ҝшஎв៉Dec-08100330,000ҝથ஄Ъஎв̂ঝᖞՅԼౄ*-1001,760,000ҝથ஄Ъ Ըྤᅳਝ͟ಡ ࢶപ ̫͟Ըྤࢦᕇ b රማཉг (01109.HK/1109 HK) ඈޞ˭ ̆዇ྤயڦˢ HK$17.02 !޺ᆧ޺ჯ જၗՀາ! 1 ͛຅഑, CFA 2 852.2878.4401 3 samson.man@kgia.com Ŝ ะဥڦˢ3ีۏຽྤயĂ၆ᆊ79ᆆപ̮ Ŝ ะဥϏֽᔘ૟ڦˢ500༱π͞Ѽ˿гᐼ౯ Ŝ ϫᇾᆊ˯࣒Ҍ19.4പ̮ ะဥڦˢ3ีϫĂᓁޙ᎝ࢬ᎕180༱π͞Ѽ රማཉг݈̳͟ҶĂϤะဥڦˢঔݑăڠ႔ᄃٿ̋3ีྤயีϫĂᓁ၆ᆊ྿79.01ᆆപ̮ĂྵҤࣃ88.75ᆆപ̮Զឰ11%Ą̳Φ૟͚;23.7ᆆപ̮னܛĞᓁ၆ᆊ۞3јğĂ׎ዶ݋૟Шะဥ൴Җ3.482ᆆ۵າ۵Ăҫᕖ̂ޢ۵ώ6.47%ć൴ҖᆊࠎՏ۵15.88പ̮Ăྵ9͡20͟ќሹᆊԶឰ6.7%ĄѩγĂ̳ΦϺ૟ၮ˭ډэ ̆छۏய̳Φ۞40%۵ᝋᖼឰගາᕃૄгயĞ00016.HKğĂ၆ᆊ4.75ᆆപ̮Ą ဦ ̆Ĉڦˢྤய̶ᙷ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ̳Φྤफ़ ڦˢᐹኳีϫ රማཉгѩѨצะဥڦˢ۞ྤயӮᛳᐹኳีϫĄ׎̚ĂঔݑϮ୥៉ีϫᛳٺᑺঔޘ઄ડĂՒᝎܜ྿6ߊĂ֧̳ࠎ᎕ࢬ᎝ޙপҒĂีϫᓁ׍108༱π͞ѼĂ׎̚થٗݡ۞г᎕ͧࠎ0.59Ăௐ ̆ഇࡗ15༱π͞ѼĂ࿰ؠѐغฟ̍Ă2H11ฟؕ࿰઴Ą፾ςёҝшᄃ̳ಲՏπ͞Ѽᆊॾ࿰ࠎ̶Ҿࢍ3༱̮ᄃ1.9༱̮ˠϔ။ĄѩγĂܧથٗݡ۞ࡗࢍ᎕ᓁࢬࢬሁ30.7༱π͞ѼĂ࿰ؠྻᒉ੧ظĂᓁٗᇴ෹࿅2,500มĄ ڠ႔፛ፘ៉૟̶3ഇޙనĂஉᄏ੼ᆸ̳ಲᄃ̈੼ᆸ̳ಲĂ᎕ࢬ᎝ޙᓁ58.3༱π͞ѼĄௐ ̆ഇฟ൴В7ഏ33ሁ̳ಲĂ࿰ؠ11͡ଯሹĂՏπ͞Ѽ઴ᆊҤࢍ8,500̮ˠϔ။Ą ᛂэٿ̋ีϫг఍ѯݑгડĂֶ̋౭ͪĂฟ൴ีϫࢍထ߁Β190ᆼҲ૜ޘᓜͪҾိ̈́900ഏҲᆸ̂шĂᓁޙ᎝ࠎࡗ᎕ࢬ28.6༱π͞ѼĂؠҜࠎĶξ͕̚Ҳ૜ޘ੼ᑫҝшડķĂௐ ̆ഇޙ᎝̍඀྿5.6༱π͞ѼĂᑢٺ̫ѐ10͡જ̍Ă2011ѐ̚ฟؕ࿰઴Ą፾ςёҝшᄃ̳ಲՏπ͞ᆊॾ࿰ࢍ̶Ҿ྿3༱ᄃ1.8༱̮ˠϔ။Ą ะဥጾѣ500༱π͞Ѽ˿гᐼ౯ གྷ࿅ѩѨྤயڦˢޢĂරማะဥ۞˿гᐼ౯ࡗ500༱π͞ѼĂ҃රማཉг۞˿гᐼ౯྿2,420༱π͞ѼĄරማะဥϏֽ૟Ᏼፄ12̰࣎͡ఢထࢋଯሹ۞ีϫĂซҖ˭ ̆዇ྤயڦˢĄ ဦ˟Ĉරማะဥ۞˿гᐼ౯ ොĈරማะဥϫ݈Υᄃஎвξםع߆થ̂ঝᖞՅԼౄีϫ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ̳Φྤफ़ ̳ΦෞᆊᄃԸྤޙᛉ!Ҥࣃಱӛ͔˧ ҂ณາڦˢ۞3ีྤய૟ځٺѐฟؕ੒ᚥᒔӀĂԧࣇჯ޺2010ѐᒔӀ࿰Ҥ61.28ᆆപ̮Ă֭૟2011-12ѐ࿰Ҥ಼̈˯አ1.7%Ă̶Ҿ྿58.09ᆆപ̮ᄃ61.76ᆆപ̮ĄѩγĂԧࣇ૟ѐغՏ۵NAV࿰Ҥ˯࣒Ҍ24.3പ̮Ą̳Φ۵ᆊϫ݈Σٽд2010ѐՏ۵࠳Ӏ࿰Ҥ۞14.3ࢺĂྵNAV࿰ҤԶឰ29.0%Ăពϯϫ݈Ҥࣃ֭Ϗઐ੼Ąԧࣇؠన12࣎͡ϫᇾᆊ19.42പ̮ĂྵNAV࿰ҤԶឰ20%Ăķෞ৺Ą޺Ķᆧ޺ჯ߇ Ҍ12͡31͟͹ᒉќˢ ͹ᒉӀማ ᒉຽӀማEBITDAஐӀማ Տ۵࠳Ӏ(HK$mn)(HK$mn)(HK$mn)(HK$mn)(HK$mn)(HK$)2009A16,6015,9394,6354,7484,4090.902010F23,6729,3187,6617,8156,1281.202011F31,75012,83010,60810,8005,8091.082012F33,67813,61111,25411,4706,1761.15Ҍ12͡31͟EV/SalesEV/EBIT EV/EBITDAத࠳ξEV/Inv. Cஐྤயаಡத(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)(%)2009A41.0146.9143.418.99.913.02010F29.290.288.414.27.213.82011F21.965.464.315.86.610.72012F20.661.660.414.86.410.1யຽ13.2 - 20.119.425/64614.185,737 68 371.7 639.4 131.6 12.4; 8.5; 0.543.75.1; 3.2; -4.4ᆊॾՏ۵ஐࣃͧ -12/10Ҥ (x)۵ᆊ඗၆ܑன % (3, 6, 12࣎͡)ஐ࢑ๅͧத -12/10Ҥ (%)னܑ၆࠹۵ᆊ % (3, 6, 12࣎͡)۵Ӏќৈத-12/10Ҥ (%)ڌ۵ࢋ͹ (%):Տ۵ஐࣃ -12/10Ҥ(പ။̮)3 ࣎͡πӮ͟јΣณ (Ѻ༱۵):˯ႚ/˭฀۩ม (%)߹఼дγ۵ᇴ (Ѻ༱۵):˯ႚ۩มଵЩ (percentile, %)̙צ̂۵ڌೠଠ۵ᇴ (%):52 ฉ۵ᆊ (Ҳ/੼):12࣎͡ϫᇾᆊ (പ။̮)ξࣃ (Ȉᆆ̮/Ѻ༱ܛ࡚):ٗгயCR Group ࡁտშ৭Ĉhttp://research.kgi.com 2010ѐ09͡27͟ 2 Ҍ12͡31͟ (പ။Ѻ༱̮)2008A2009A2010F2011F2012Fྤயᓁᗝ68,61896,584 126,581 140,520 151,154߹જྤய54 ,1 3075 ,2 52100 ,6 011 11 ,44 01 16 ,97 4 னܛ̈́ൺഇԸྤ5,65919,51421,95120,29017,024 хఱ38 ,2 2440 ,8 9455,0 0065 ,00070 ,00 0 ᑕќ૳ഠ̈́ைፂ9,88513,75122,50025,00028,800 જྤய߹΁׎3631,0931,1501,1501,150જྤய߹ܧ14 ,4 8821 ,3 3225,9 8029 ,08034 ,18 0 ܜഇԸྤ1,1841,0871,1801,2801,380 ׽ؠྤய12 ,2 7319 ,3 2124,0 0027 ,00032 ,00 0 ̦ีྤய1,031924800800800࢑ๅᓁᗝ37,55657,58473,35080,08083,400ๅ࢑જ߹18 ,8 7829 ,6 6433,2 0038 ,90047 ,70 0 ᑕ;૳ഠ̈́ைፂ4,2585,6576,4007,5008,500 ൺഇࣄഠ4,0631,8272,8003,2004,800 ̦ี࢑ๅ10 ,5 5722 ,1 7924,0 0028 ,20034 ,40 0ๅ࢑ഇܜ18 ,6 7827 ,9 2040,1 5041 ,18035 ,70 0 ܜഇࣄഠ17 ,0 3025 ,6 3237,0 0038 ,00032 ,00 0 ׎΁࢑ๅ̈́໤౯1,6482,2893,1503,1803,700۵ڌᝋৈᓁᗝ31,06239,00053,23160,44067,754 ೼఼۵ώ472503539539539 ྤώ̳᎕23 ,6 2127 ,6 7435,6 7038 ,17040 ,67 0 ዶ࠳঻ܲ6 ,1 709 ,6 3314,5 2318 ,93223 ,54 6 পҾ۵ώ7991,1902,5002,8003,000Ҍ12͡31͟ (പ။Ѻ༱̮)2 00 8A2 00 9A2 01 0F2 01 1F2 01 2Fѐјܜத (% )ᒉຽќˢ64.977.342.634.16.1ᒉຽӀৈ43.394.165.338.56.1EBITDA42.496.264.638.26.2ඁޢ৷ৈ39.3121.139.0(5.2)6.3Տ۵࠳ዶ15.496.733.3(10.3)6.3ᒔӀਕ˧̶ژ (%)ᒉຽͨӀத35.735.839.440.440.4ᒉຽӀৈத25.527.932.433.433.4EBITDA Ӏৈத25.828.633.034.034.1ඁޢ৷ৈத21.326.625.918.318.3πӮྤயಡ࿌த3.45.35.54.34.2πӮஐࣃಡ࿌த8.013.013.810.710.1ؠᘦ \ ᐺๅਕ˧̶ژͨ࢑ๅͧத (%)67.979.297.590.773.5ஐ࢑ๅͧத (%)49.722.943.746.039.5Ӏिܲᅪࢺᇴ(X)20.644.547.535.529.5Ӏि̈́ൺഇๅܲᅪࢺᇴ (X)0.73.53.33.12.2Cash Flow Int. Coverage (X)(54.8)70.2(48.2)3.018.6Cash Flow/Int. & ST Debt (X)(2.0)5.5(3.4)0.31.4߹જͧத (X)2.92.53.02.92.5ిજͧத (X)0.81.21.41.21.0ๅ࢑ஐ (Ѻ༱പ̮)13,03011,69012,89719,38020,343Տ۵ྤफ̶़ژ (HK$)Տ۵࠳ዶ0.460.901.201.081.15ዶ࠳ܛՏ۵ன0.470.931.231.111.19Տ۵ஐࣃ6.427.529.4210.7012.02Տ۵ᒉќ0.240.420.600.800.85EBITDA\shr0.010.020.030.040.04Տ۵۵Ӏ0.120.240.250.280.32ڶېྤயྻϡྤய׹ᖼத (X)0.20.20.20.20.2ᑕќ૳ഠ׹ᖼ͇ᇴ385.2302.3346.9287.4312.1хఱ׹ᖼ͇ᇴ1489.6899.1848.1747.3758.7ᑕ;૳ഠ׹ᖼ͇ᇴ166.0124.498.786.292.1னܛᖼೱೈᒖ͇ᇴ1708.91077.11096.3948.4978.7Ҍ12͡31͟ (പ။Ѻ༱̮)2008A2009A2010F2011F2012Fᒉຽќˢ9,36616,60123,67231,75033,678ᒉຽјώ6,02410,66314,35418,92020,067ᒉຽͨӀ3,3425,9399,31812,83013,611ᒉຽ෱ϡ9541,3031,6572,2222,357ᒉຽӀৈ2,3884,6357,66110,60811,254Ӏिќˢஐᗝ(64)(49)(86)(156)(241)Ӏिќˢ871 051 2414814 9Ӏि෱ϡ151154210304390ԸྤӀৈஐᗝ974150607 0׎΁ᒉຽγќˢஐᗝ316143160191197ܧ૱ีϫஐᗝ2251,9231,984(224)(179)ඁ݈৷ৈ2,9626,