皇朝家私控股：品牌+网络+物流+管理,推动盈利增长正循环
Company ReportBuy (Initial Coverage) TP：HK$ 2.50 ROYALE FURNITURE(01198.HK) Royale Furniture Holdings Ltd., Royale or the company as follows, designs, manufactures and sells a wide range of home furniture. Royale is one of the best sale panel-based furniture producers in China. Operating 1538 Franchise outlets and 100 self-operating shops, Royale recorded sales of HKD 545mn (+53.8% yoy) and net profit of HKD 60mn (+174.2% yoy) in 1H10. The future earnings growth come from the synergy of premium brand image, wide spread distribution and sales network, improved management and logistics, in our view. We expect net profit to maintain 13.6%, 32% and 33.1% growth over 2010-2012. We derive the TP of HKD 2.50 from PE valuation, representing 7.2x2011PE. Growth derive from improved management and logistics Current price：HK$1.83 China Merchants Securities (HK) Ying LIANG 0755-83295342 ly@cmschina.com.cn 07 Sep 2010 Key data HSI Index 21401.79HSCEI Index 11956.23S/O（mn） 560S/O (HK)（mn） 560 Premium brand image of “Royal Furniture” Leveraging the positive effects as the exclusive supplier of home furniture for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, the company’s “Royal Furniture” brand continues to project a premium brand image benefiting its other products. Subsequent to the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, Royale has won the contract as the exclusive supplier of furniture products to the 26th Summer Universiade to be held at Shenzhen in 2011. Mkt cap (HK) (mn) 1019BVPS（HKD） 1.37Major share holder Holding (％)Free float 49.75Industry Operating analysis In 1H10, sales from China and overseas accounted for 98% and 2% of sales respectively. Historically (2007-2009) Royale gross profit margin and net profit margin were higher than its peers, according to our analysis. Share performance %1m 6m12mAbsolute return -16 3487Relative return -15 3491 -50050100150200Sep-09Jan-10May-10Sep-10(%)01198.HKHSI Index Source：Bloomberg Future strategies Royale plans to add 200 franchise outlets and 5~10 self-operating shops in 2H10, and will maintain 300-400 outlets opening in next 2 years. Royale positions to capture the fast growing market of the 3rd and 4th tier cities. Partner with regional logistic companies to improve transportation efficiency of the supply chain, Royale plans to establish logistic hubs across China, with operating Capex around HKD 50-60mn each year. Financials 31/12 HKD mn 2008 2009 2010E2011E2012ERelated research Revenue 791 688 1,235＊1,6062,087 Growth 28.6% -13.0% 79.4%30.0%30.0%Net income -89.6 130.5 148.2 195.7 260.6 Growth N/A N/A 13.6%32.0%33.1%EPS(RMB) -0.28 0.30 0.260.350.47DPS(RMB) 0.03 0.12 0.08 0.10 0.14 P/E(X) N/A 6.2 6.9 5.2 3.9 P/B(X) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 ROE N/A 21.0% 17.3%19.2%21.1%Source: Company data, CMS (HK) estimate. ＊In 1H10, the company reclassify the non-core products income “from other income” and gains to “Gross profit”. Our estimate for 2010E-2012E based on the restated data. Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 19 公司报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 买入 皇朝家私控股(01198.HK) (首次覆盖) 皇朝家私控股有限公司（以下简称“皇朝家私”或“公司”）主要经营设计、制造及分销中高档家具产品，是中国产销量最大的板式家具生产企业之一。 截至2010上半年，皇朝家私拥有1538间特许经营店及约100间自营店，销售额5.5亿（港元，下同），同比增长53.8%，净利润同比增长174.2%至6000万元。我们看好皇朝的品牌效应、未来销售网络管理带来的效率提升及物流体系构建对公司盈利的推动。我们对皇朝2010-2012年的EPS预测为0.26元、0.35元及0.47元，2010-2012年净利润分别同比增长13.6%、32%及33.1%。经计算，港股家具业2009年-2011E年平均PE为12.4倍、8.7倍及7.2倍。我们采用行业平均PE法对公司进行估值，得出对皇朝的目标估值为2.50港元，对应7.2x2011PE，给予皇朝家私首次评级为“买入”。 品牌+网络+物流+管理，推动盈利增长正循环 目标价：HK$ 2.50 现价：HK$1.83 招商证券(香港)研究部 梁盈 83295342 ly@cmschina.com.cn 2010年9月7日 基础数据 恒生指数 21401.7911956.23H股指数 560总股数（万股） 560港股股数（万股） 品牌—“皇朝家私 我的家” 皇朝80%的年销售额来自板式家具，根据中国十大品牌网的评选，2010年板式十大家具品牌中，皇朝家私名列第三。2008年，皇朝家私成为北京奥运会生活家具独家供货商。同年，公司成为深圳2011年第26届大学生夏季运动会办公及生活类家具赞助商。 1019港股市值(港元百万) 1.37每股净资产（港元） 持股(％)主要股东 经营分析 2010上半年公司约98%的销售额来自中国，其余约2%来自亚洲其它地区、中东及欧洲地区。我们将皇朝与香港、A股及海外上市公司进行了比较，皇朝的历史（2006-2009年）毛利率水平高于同期行业的平均水平。历史净利率水平高于行业平均水平（2006年除外，主要是06年公司厂址搬迁，费用率上升使得净利率下降）。 49.75自由流通量 行业股价表现 %1m 6m12m绝对表现 -3 34106未来发展策略 公司未来定位于三、四线城市的家具销售增长，物流体系的构建已经成为工作重点之一。沈阳的物流项目于2010年开始试点，未来公司计划到2011年中在华中、西南、华东各设置一个物流中心。今年下半年公司
