世茂房地产：地产开发利润率提升显著,维持“买入”评级

Company ReportBuy (Prior: Buy) TP：HK$ 17.50 Current price：HK$13.54 SHIMAO PROPERTY(00813.HK) Shimao Property Holdings Limited (Shimao) reported 2010 interim turnover growth of 102% yoy to Rmb10 billion and gross profit growth of 133% to Rmb3.3 billion, thanks to the higher-than expected gross margin and rising bookable house sales revenue. Gross margin in 1H10 was at 33.1%, 4.4 ppt higher than 1H09, due to higher property selling price at Rmb9,344/Sqm versus Rmb6,704 in 1H09. Shimao posted a headline profit of Rmb2.1 billion in 1H10, up 76% yoy. Excluding the fair valuation gains of investment property and the disposal proceeds of minority interest, Shimao’s 1H10 core earnings was at Rmb1.5 billion, up 425% yoy. Rising house price suggesting a bigger margin expansion behind China Merchants Securities (HK) Stanley Wu +86-755-83295441 Wuxuan@cmschina.com.cn 08 Sep 2010 Key data Revised down FY10 contracted sales revenue forecast Shimao achieved a Ytd contracted sales revenue of Rmb16.1 billion at the end of Aug, representing a low lock-in ratio of 53.7% to its FY10 contracted sales target of Rmb30 billion. Given a sufficient house delivery pipeline, we believe Shimao will future reduce its property selling price to accelerate its house sales pace. We see Shimao’s 4Q house sales will exceed 1 million Sqm, and its FY10 house sales area, in terms of Gross Floor Area (GFA) will reach 2.3 million sqm after book its Jan-Aug contracted sold GFA of 1.3 million Sqm. We revised down Shimao’s FY10 contracted sales revenue forecast form Rmb30 billion to Rmb26.8 based on our updated FY10 ASP (average selling price) estimation of Rmb11,670/Sqm. HSI Index 21401.79HSCEI Index 11956.23S/O（mn） 35423545S/O (HK)（mn） Mkt cap (HK) (mn) 48006BVPS（HKD） 6.59Major share holder Holding (％)Mr. Hui Wing Mau 59.21Free float 40.70Industry Real EstateShare performance % Bigger margin expansion behind During the fist 3Q this year, Shimao’s ASP was about Rmb12,733/Sqm, which is 44% higher than the property selling price of Rmb 8,841/Sqm in the same period last year. Considering 60% of Shimao’s FY10 contracted sales revenue may recognized in FY11, and its 2H09 ASP was also posited high as over Rmb9,000/sqm. We expect Shimao’s FY10 and FY11 gross margin to reach 38% and 40% driving by the rising bookable ASP and measurable house construction cost of Rmb4,800-5,000/Sqm. 1m 6m12mAbsolute return -5 -15-28Relative return -4 -14-28 -40-30-20-1001020Sep-09Jan-10May-10Sep-10(%)00813.HKHSI Index Source：Bloomberg Valuation still looks attractive Shimao is currently trading at a deep discount of 42% to its estimated FY10 NAV/Share of HK$ 23.30, which is at the low end compared to its peers (market cap trading at 25%-30% discount to estimated NAV). We rate Shimao as a “buy” with an updated target price of HK$ 17.50. Financials (Rmb mln) 2008 Related research 2009 2010E2011E2012ERevenue 7,196 17,032 22,386 27,044 32,540 Growth (%) -22.4% 136.7% 31.4%20.8%20.3%Net income 841 3,511 3,882 4,620 5,147 Growth (%) -79.4% 317.4% 10.6%19.0%11.4%EPS(RMB) 0.25 1.01 1.10 1.30 1.45 DPS(RMB) 0.12 0.30 0.33 0.39 0.42 P/E(X) 46.9 11.7 10.8 9.0 8.1 P/B(X) 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4 ROE (%) 4.5% 15.0% 15.3%16.1%14.8%Source: Company data, CMS (HK) estimate Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 6 公司报告买入 世茂房地产(00813.HK) (上次：买入) 地产开发利润率提升显著，维持“买入”评级 目标价：HK$ 17.50 2010年上半年，世茂房地产控股有限公司（下称公司或世茂房地产）确认物业销售面积100.7万平方米，相比09年同期增长43.4%。期内，物业结算均价为9,344元/平方米，较09年上半年6,704元/平方米的物业售价水平大幅提高39.4%。在此影响下，公司今年上半年的入账物业销售额及毛利率分别同比提升106%及4个百分点至94.2亿元及33%。受上海酒店服务需求强劲增长以及可出租商业物业面积显著增加的影响，公司今年上半年的酒店业务营业额与投资物业租金收入分别同比增长56%及49%至4.5亿元及1.6亿元。至10年6月底，公司共确认营业额100.2亿元，实现净利润21.1亿元。剔除投资物业公允价值变动及出售少数股东权益的收益后，公司10年上半年的经性净利润为15.7亿元，比上年同期约3亿元的核心净利润提高近4.3倍。 现价：HK$13.54 招商证券(香港)研究部 吴轩 营 10年竣工物业面积不低于300万平方米 2010年上半年，公司竣工物业130万平方米，较09年同期增长334%。至10年6月底，公司拥有32个在建住宅项目，分布于全国23个大中城市，涉及总施工楼面面积达770万平方米。今年下半年，公司投入预售、销售的项目数量将达到34个，可预售/销售面积预计超过230万平方米。基于公司10年度300万平方米的竣工物业面积指标，我预计公司本年度达到入账标准的可售