中国财险：股价已反映保险业务复苏的预期
"!#$% &' ()*+ , # -. /0 , 12 3 + 4 65789:;< = >? @4 2009ABC DE© 6FFFFHGGGGHIIIIHJJJJKKKKHLLLLNMMMMPOOOOHQQQQRRRRHSSSSUTTTT VVVVXWWWW YYYYZZZZH[[[[\\\\H]]]]_^^^^````aaaaHbbbbcccc<dddd"eeeeGGGGffffgggghhhhiiiijjjjkkkkllllHmmmm_nnnndddd oqpqrqsutwvyx{z}|q~u }u w}u} q¡q¢q£¤q¥¦rsq§ ̈©ªxz|«12¬ ̄®±°² ³6.00 ́μ¶t·4.30 ́μ 2009 ̧7³11 ¹ºq»q¼q½u¾q ̧}¿}À22.8%x{Áw09 ̧q ̧uþq ̧¿À13.5%Pz|Ä}·ªx¼½qÅÆ¿ÀqÇÈ É ̄ÊpÌË2009 ̧7ÍqÎÏÐuæÑ}Ò¾ ̧qÓqÔ}Õ70%xPÖ}×Ðà ¼q½q¿qÀ ̧}سٻq¼}½q¾q ̧}¿qÀ17%xÛÚqÜÝqÞp}ߢ}à¦áu¼½qæ¿À¾ ̧¿À21%â ãäм}½q¿qÀx{ qå¼}½Ã}æqç¿}Àqèué«qqêq³ ̧që qì}íuî}ïð ̧«ñqòÐÃó}ôqõq³7.5%2009 ̧·5%±©öx°u÷}øùqúuû}üwý qåuþ½qÿ ̧që}óÐxÍð ̧uÃõöxv 2010 ̧Øñ}òÐwà Éx}}ê¿}Àà x }å2010 ̧¦wà »}¼}½«¿À10% qåãä "!#æ ¢$%&q·'(à )*+ ,-x¼ .0/À12Ãß435²ÞÃ687«9:;< =>?ÉxA@ pBCDEF<102%xz}|Ä·2009 ̧ G4HÃ4I¦ÝJ ̈ }Pz|~}2009 ̧} }¡ÚKyxLÉ«2010 ̧¢2011 ̧q q¡q8%-12%xNMÉv ·OP<2009 ̧«$%&}·'(à Q}¼R5²°}÷xz| SÐT*UVÛ å2010 ̧BCDE«W¦³100%¶t·100.3%â 2009XXXX12YYYY15ZZZZ [!]\?^`_?a]b`_ cedgfihkjelcedgfihkjelcedgfihkjelcedgfihkjelnmmmmpokqsrktokqsrktokqsrktokqsrktuuuu vwyx?z|{~}]vw"!# $ % yvw iekijelkiekijelkiekijelkiekijelkmmmmpiekokqetiekokqetiekokqetiekokqetuuuu vwyx?z|{~}]vw"!# $ % yvw * 2007A1&y?y0.87{1.00y y ?¡¢£¥¤^¦?§@ x?vwy ̈?©ª«¬«5%®] ̄° ±³² ́gμ ¶g·k ̧i¹ 2328 HK ºi»k¼ 2328.HK ½k¾i¿eÀkÁiÂgÃgÄ ÅiÆkÇgÈkÉÃiÄ ÊgËiÌÊgËiÌÊgËiÌÊgËiÌ 12ÍÏÎÏнgÑ ÒÑ ÓkÔ12ÍÕÎ×ÖÕØÚÙÜÛ%Ý -15.6 Samuel Seah Þkßgàiá³â 65-6438 2881 samuel_seah@standardandpoors.com 6.00rktrktrktrkt 7.11rktrktrktrkt ãkäiåkæsçièkéeêë 52ìiíÑiîïÛñðiòÝ 3.20 - 7.36 Ökógô 79,220 ígõiö Ð÷ÛùøkúeíÝ 11,142 ûýüiþkÿ Û'000Ý 31,977 2009ÓkÔí³ØsÙÛ%Ý 2.2 12 2008 2009kkkk 2010kkkk 2011kkkk mmmm%uuuu 101,878 116,429 128,237 139,499 11.0 ê 81,122 82,871 90,981 98,992 9.6 Ù! "#$% -447 633 3,181 5,272 n.m. Ù&$ 50 475 2,386 3,954 329.2 Ù'gí( $ÛÇ ) *Ý 0.01 0.05 0.25 0.41 329.2 Ù'gí( $Ûñðkò Ý 0.00 0.04 0.21 0.35 329.2 ó( ÜÛ,+Ý 1584.2 166.8 33.2 20.0 - 'iíií -ÛÇ ) *Ý 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.12 n.m. 'iíií -Ûñðkò Ý 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.14 high í -ÜÛ%Ý 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.0 - 2 Standard & Poor’s Equity Research 2009.12Î15û /10 32/10 32/10 32/10 32 465676869;:=<?>3@BA6C3DFEHG6I6J6K;L6M6NPORQ;S;T;URV;WYX[Z;\2010]P^`_C?T6URa;bRc;d6eRf;gRh6ikjml6nBo6pBq]RrLRs6W6tRu;v;wYXyx;z{j|Z6\2009]6}2010]v;~6;36;c; RPBp2.2%}10.5%jm66G66;RR;XI<6>PU=A;ajy;R`CP@}z`A^F_j4B5RBR=A^=_jP8B B¡C?¢R£;68P¤R¥¦jy§ ̈@3©Rª«X 4656¬62010]6®ZR ̄;°6±PC2.0² ́³¶μ81.8² ̧·¹;º}2010]ZR ̄P¢£BC27²R¹¢6;\6»½¼¾6¿6.00À6Á³¶μ84.30À6Á ̧·X[I6\6»½¼¾6¿Ræjm45BÄBÅÆRÇRÈBJB¢B£`C;B`É6ʳÌËBÍRÎBÏ`Ð6¹BºRR=É6Ê·jËÑÒBÓOBÔÕ;ÖB×RØjÙ<6>?@=ABC;¢B£BÚRÛ`Ü;ÝÞX4R5Ï`ÐCß¼¾¹BºR๢BBáBâ6ãRä;åRæ3ç=è?C<HRÆ;éYX 9B:BêBë`C6ìBoRíA;îï{ðÙE3J¹×6ØñjURòBÄBóBôõ6ZöÞ÷TRUVBW6øBJBZöY÷}96:;t6ù6ú;£Pe6Ä;ÅûX 3 Standard & Poor’s Equity Research 2009.12Î15û /10 32/10 32/10 32/10 32 üýiþ ÿüýiþ ÿüýiþ ÿüýiþ ÿ vwyx?z|{~}]vw"!# $ % yvw 12 mmmmpkeioiqgtkeioiqgtkeioiqgtkeioiqgtuuuu 2007 2008 2009kkkk 2010kkkk 2011kkkk Ù 88,668 101,878 116,429 128,237 139,499 ê 68,728 81,122 82,871 90,981 98,992 $ - 0 0 0 0 0 i ̧ 3,229 3,716 2,855 3,399 4,425 i ̧( 4,442 319 775 1,100 1,100 12 357 70 79 89 êë gê kÇ$ -58,844 -73,142 -72,921 -78,377 -84,583 0 0 0 0 0 -13,098 -12,286 -12,430 -13,356 -14,043 -13 -533 -586 -645 -709 !" #Û%$ !"& Ý 0 0 0 0 0 Ù! "#$% 4,456 -447 633 3,181 5,272 "& -1,465 497 -158 -795 -1,318 'ökí( 0 0 0 0 0 Ù&$ 2,991 50 475 2,386 3,954 ) *&$ 2,991 50 475 2,386 3,954 Û%Ý 24.3 14.9 14.3 10.1 8.8 ê Û%Ý 23.6 18.0 2.2 9.8 8.8 $ - Û%Ý n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. ) *&$ÜÛ%Ý 43.7 -98.3 850.0 402.4 65.7 4 Standard & Poor’s Equity Research 2009.12Î15û /10 32/10 32/10 32/10 32j+ , -kþ ÿj+ , -kþ ÿj+ , -kþ ÿj+ , -kþ ÿ vwyx?z|{~}]vw"!# $ % yvw ./þ ÿ0 1./þ ÿ0 1./þ ÿ0 1./þ ÿ0 1 v`w?x`zÕ{}Av`wk=!#Û$P%PP ]? `]?v`w 12
