华润置地(1109.HK)：下调目标价

Company Research For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosures at the end of this report.1 21 Mar 2014China Resources Land（1109.HK） BUY | Target price: HK$22.68Cutting our target price China Property The 28.3% growth in underlying earnings was below our expectation mainly because of the sharp decline in GP to 28.2% from 37.6%. While GP will improve and stabilized at 29.4-31.4% in the coming 3 years, they are still below the pre 2012 levels. Going forward, we believe performance will be counting on continuous rising sales and potential asset injection. The stock is trading at 36% discount to our NAV estimate of HK$25.2, we cut our TP from HK$26.10 to HK$22.68based on a 10% discount to our NAV estimate. „ 28.3% underlying earnings growth driven by higher sales but lower margin.Revenue and underlying profit rose 60.9% and 28.3% to HK$71.4bn and HK$9.3bnrespectively, below our expectations. Gross margin declined from 37.6% to 28.2%mainly due to weak cost control. However, we believe GP had already bottomeddue to increase in contracted ASP in 2013. In the coming 3 years, we expect GPwill be ranging between 29.4% and 31.4% excluding the effect of asset injection. „ We forecast higher contracted sales of RMB77bn in FY14. Based on RMB140bn properties available for sales, CRL sets a sales target of RMB70bn in FY14 compared with RMB66.3bn achieved in FY13. We believe this sales target is conservative and forecast contracted sales to reach HK$77bn in FY14 based on a conservative sales rate of 55% compared with 60% in FY13 due to its strong brand name and high landbank quality. „ Potential injection of high quality assets. As of 28 February 2014, CRL had alandbank of 35.8mn sq.m in GFA. Its parent, CRH still holds GFA of 5.7mn sq.m including 2.1mn GFA located in the centre of Shenzhen. We forecast ASP of Shenzhen projects will range between RMB45k/sq.,m and RMB55k/sq.,m, If CRH injects its land bank to CRL at reasonable cost, it could potentially boost CRL’s GP, profitability and valuation. „ TP cut to HK$22.68. We remain positive on CRLI’s fundamentals. We forecast underlying EPS of HK$2.11/2.50/2.92 for FY14/15/16, translating into PEs of 7.6x/6.4x/5.5x for the respective years. The stock is trading at a 36% discount to our estimated NAV of HK$25.2. We cut our TP from HK$26.1 to HK$22.68 based on a 10% NAV discount. Financial Summary Year to Dec 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenue (HK$ m) 44,364 71,389 89,143 103,277 118,861 Operating Profit (HK$ m) 17,750 24,114 21,893 26,366 30,673 Reported Profit (HK$ m) 10,569 14,696 12,307 14,567 17,037 Underlying Profit (HK$ m) 7,237 9,320 12,307 14,567 17,037 Underlying EPS (HK$) 1.24 1.60 2.11 2.50 2.92 DPS (HK$) 0.26 0.34 0.44 0.53 0.62 BVPS (HK$) 11.86 14.55 16.14 18.01 20.20 P/E (x) 13.0 10.1 7.6 6.4 5.5 Dividend Yield (%) 1.6% 2.1% 2.7% 3.3% 3.9% P/B (x) 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 Source: Guosen Securities (HK) Analyst Peter Cao SFC CE No.:AVM093 00852-2899 8300 caohui@guosen.com.hk Performance Source: Bloomberg Key Data Price(HK$) 16.10Shares Outstanding(m)* 5,831Market Cap. (HK$ m)* 93,879Free float (%) 54.76Average Daily Turnover HK$207m52 Week Range 24.7/14.92Controlling Shareholder China Resources(67.97%BVPS (HK$) 14.55Net debt ratio (%) 39.2% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 050001000015000200002500030000412754145641640HSI.HI1109.HK 公司报告 国信证券（香港） 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 2014年3月21日华润置地（1109.HK） 买入 | 目标价: HK$22.68下调目标价 房地产行业 2013年公司核心盈利增长28.3％,低于我们预期，主要由于公司的毛利率由37.6%降至28.2%。我们预计未来的3年，公司毛利率将维持在29.4-31.4％。我们预计公司的增长将主要来自销售的持续增长和资产注入。目前股价较资产重估价值港币25.2有近36％之折让，我们将公司目标价由港币26.1降至港币22.68，较资产重估价值折让10％。 „ 核心利润增长28.3％。公司收入和核心利润上升60.9％和28.3％，至港币714亿和港币93亿，低于我们的预期。由于成本控制能力偏弱，毛利率从37.6％下降至28.2％。由于合约销售价格的平稳回升，我们预计毛利率将触底回升，预计未来3年将毛利率将维持在29.4％至31.4％33.2之间。 „ 我们预计2014年合约销售额可达港币770亿。在可售资源港币1400亿的条件下，公司制定了2014年销售目标港币700亿。我们认为该目标较为保守，我们预计全年销售可达770亿，基于55%之销售去化率假设。2013年公司的销售去化率为60%。 „ 潜在的高质量资产注入。截至2014年2月28日，华润置地持有3580万平方米的土地储备。其母公司华润集团仍持有570万平方米土地储备，包括位于深圳市区总建筑面积达210万平米之项目。我们预计，深圳项目的平均售价将在人民币45000/平米至人民币55000/平米。如果华润集团能以合理的对价注入该土地储备，可能提振华润置地的盈利能力和估值水平。 „ 下调目标价至港币22.68。我们仍对华润置地基本面保持乐观。我们预计2014/15/16年的基本每股核心收益分别为港币2.11/2.50/2.92，对应7.6x/6.4x/5.5xPE。目前股价较资产重估价值港币25.2有近36％之折让，我们将公司目标价由港币26.1降至港币22.68，较资产重估价值折让10％。 盈利预测 截至31/12 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 营业额(港币 百万) 44,364 71,389 89,143 103,277 118,861 经营盈利 (港币百万) 17,750 24,114 21,893 26,366 30,673 账面盈利(港币百万) 10,569 14,696 12,307 14,567 17,037 核心盈利 (港币百万) 7,237 9,320 12,307 14,567 17,037 每股实际盈利(港币) 1.24 1.60 2.11 2.50 2.92 每股股息(港币) 0.26 0.34 0.44 0.53 0.62 每股账面价值 (港币) 11.86 14.55 16.14 18.01 20.20 市盈率(x) 13.0 10.1 7.6 6.4 5.5 股息