请࣑必阅读↓文之ਾ的特别声明部࠶ 证券研究报告˖行业研究 家用电器行业 评㓗˖ 看好 行业整体增长稳定，看好厨卫ǃ小家电ᶯ块 里里家电行业工代令4ᒤ中期策略报告 工代令4ᒤ6ᴸ左代日 行业研究/深ᓖ研究 家用电器行业近期市场表现 л半ᒤ投资要点˖ 整体к看，无论城镇䘈是ߌᶁ，家电ঐ收入比都ᡀл降䎻势，ѫ要是由于收入增幅大于家电消䍩增幅ᡰ㠤，但是家电消䍩的㔍ሩ增长依然存在，尤ަ是家电保ᴹ䟿较վ的空调ǃ油烟机，ߌᶁ居民和中վ收入人群的收入增长ሩ家电的新增需求的拉动作用明显，城镇居民的生活䍘䟿提高将促䘋ᴯ换需求DŽ 2014ᒤ1-5ᴸ商品ᡯ销售面〟਼比л降7.8%，新开ᐕ面1-5ᴸ਼比л滑18.6%DŽ考虑到期ᡯ目前家电ᶯ块оᡯ地产ᶯ块的相ޣ性接䘁শਢ最վ点ǃ自ѫ型ᡯ产比䟽降վ，ᡁ们预测今ᒤл半ᒤ家电行业将䙀渐ਇ到来自ᡯ地产нᲟ气的影响，但在ਟ᧗范围内DŽӾ长期来看，家电的需求更多地о消䍩信心和消䍩能力相ޣDŽ 2014一季ᓖ，在ⲭ电销䟿਼比ᵚᴹ猛增的情况л，ⲭ电企业的业绩Პ遍提高，ᡁ们认Ѫѫ要是因Ѫ产品结构整体向利润空间大的高端产品转型ᡰሬ㠤的ⲭ电企业的利润率大幅增长DŽ但Ӿ长䘌看，冰洗都在䙀渐接䘁ཙ花ᶯ，ᵚ来智能ॆǃ⧟保ॆᡰ带来的ᴯ换需求是家电ѫ要增长点DŽਇӂ联网企业䘋入及家电᭯策红利消失，2014ᒤ一季ᓖ，黑电企业的业绩Პ遍л滑，形ᡀ高䍘վԧ的尴尬局面，随着һԦ性驱动效ᓄ䘰ࠪ及人民ᐱ汇率触ᓅ৽ᕩ，今ᒤ液晶电视ࠪ口形势л半ᒤ将䙀渐回ᖂ常态，全ᒤ呈⧠ࠪ前高ਾվ的态势DŽ厨电的行业集中ᓖ将䘋一↕提升，高端厨ާᐲ场ঐ比䙀渐࣐大，高盈利空间ᴹ保证，ߌᶁ保ᴹ䟿䘈ᴹ䘁半的空间，䘈是ᡰᴹ家电子行业保障ᡯ及城镇ॆ的最大ਇ益者DŽ 投资建议˖ ᡁ们认Ѫ，2014л半ᒤ家电行业ᐲ场需求䎻于谨慎DŽ技术的升㓗和原ᶀ料ԧ格的վս䘀行ԕ及在电商和智能ॆ的带动л，家电的新置和更新需求尚ᴹ一定提升空间，但在没ᴹ外生因素刺激л，家电短期很难ࠪ⧠前几ᒤ的高䙏增长DŽᡁ们预测2014ᒤ空调ǃ冰箱ǃ洗衣机ǃ彩电的整体销䟿਼比增长率࠶别Ѫ+4.2%，-2.5%，+1.8%，+8%DŽ䟽点᧘荐ⲭ电及厨电业࣑全面开花，集团ॿ਼效ᓄн断增ᕪ，线к线л快䙏融ਸ的美的集团; ԕ长虹Ѫ依托开启智能ॆ战略〟极抢ঐ智能ᐲ场份额的美菱电器˗渠道领先，ਇ益消䍩升㓗的老ᶯ电器˗智能产品ঐ比提升，股权结构改善的小ཙ鹅ADŽ 投资风险˖ 新䘋入者ሩ传统家电企业的ࠫߢ继续发酵˗ᐲ场需求վ于预期风险˗原ᶀ料ԧ格к涨˗人民ᐱ升值DŽ 分析师：曹玲燕 执业证书编ਭ：S0760511010002 Tel：0351-8686976 E-mail：caolingyan@sxzq.com 研究助理：石晋 电话：0351-8686645 地址：太原市府西街69ਭ国贸中心A座 电话：0351-8686645 山西证券股份有限公ਮ http://www.i618.com.cn 行业研究˖中期策略 请࣑必阅读↓文之ਾ的投资评㓗说明和特别声明部࠶ 工 目录： 一 行业历史回顾·············································································3 1.1家电一季度净利润表现亮眼····················································· 5 1.2 家电各子行业P/E及产销量变化·············································5 1.3 农村、城镇居民耐用品拥㦘量·················································7 二 㓎地产影响···············································································9 ₘ 䤌电板块 ················································································· 11 3.1 空调子板块·············································································11 3.2 冰箱子板块·············································································14 3.3 洗衣机子板块 ········································································ 16 四 黑电板块 ··············································································· ··18 五 厨卫板块 ················································································· 20 ⏼ 智能家电 ················································································· 22 七 电商を局····················································································26 ⏺ 投资建议····················································································28 行业研究˖中期策略 请࣑必阅读↓文之ਾ的投资评㓗说明和特别声明部࠶ 左 ⦍表目录： ⦍1：2014年一季度净利润增长·········································································5 ⦍2：2014一季度净利润率᧤%᧥·······································································5 ⦍3：板块扠期涨跌幅᧤1㦗1日—6㦗27日᧥% ··············································6 ⦍4：家电板块静态PE·······················································································6 ⦍5：家电主要子行业历年P/E表现···································································6 ⦍6：2014年1-4㦗家电出口、内销量表现························································6 ⦍7：农村每䤍户耐用品拥㦘量···········································································8 ⦍8：城镇每䤍户耐用品拥㦘量···········································································8 ⦍9：城镇、农村居民年总收入及总支出·····························································8 ⦍10：城镇、农村家电占收入比··········································································8 ⦍11：历年㓎屋景气度·······················································································9 ⦍12：新开工面积与商品㓎销售面积之差··························································9 ⦍13：土地ゑ场热度指㟿··················································································10 ⦍14：期㓎销售面积占比·················································································10 ⦍15：䤌色家电和㓎地产行业相关性································································10 ⦍16：消费者信心指㟿·····················································································10 ⦍17：1-5㦗家用空调累计产量5682万台，同比ₙ涨8.4%····························12 ⦍18：1-5㦗家用空调累计销量5755万台，同比ₙ涨5.1%·····························12 ⦍19：1-5㦗家用空调累计内销量3065万台，同比ₙ涨20.1%·······················12 ⦍20：1-5㦗家用空调累计出口量2689万台，同比ₚ降8%···························12 ⦍21：2014家用空调主要出口地区·································································12 ⦍22：家用空调内销/出口················································································12 ⦍23：空调重点⏻司2014Q1营扟能力························································