一家稳步发展的知名珠宝零售商

GTJA Research 国泰君安研究 Chow Sang Sang 周生生 (00116 HK) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 21 Company Report: Chow Sang Sang (00116 HK) Kevin Guo 郭勇公司报告：周生生 (00116 HK) +86 755 23976671kevin.guo@gtjas.com 16 May 2014 A Famous Jewellery Retailer with Steady Growth 一家稳步发展的知名珠宝零售商 z Chow Sang Sang is a famous jewellery retailer with a strong brand in the Greater China markets. The Company has established a large jewellery retail network in the Greater China market, with a total of 375 POS as of 2013 December 31. z Chow Sang Sang keeps expanding its jewellery retail network steadily and we expect the Company to add about 20 new POS each year in the next 3 years. The Company directly runs all of the retail stores with no franchise operations. Although the expansion speed of the Company is slower than that of other jewellery retailers, such strategy achieves higher efficiency and better risk control. z We expect jewellery consumption demand of Mainland China to continue to rise due to growing disposable income of residents and the expansion of middle-income and high middle-income groups. z Total revenue of the Company is expected to decline slightly in 2014 due to negative SSSG of HK/Macau POS as a result of high base effect, but will resume to grow starting in 2015. The EPS is expected to increase by -15.4%, 10.1% and 13.8%, respectively, to HKD 1.522, 1.676 and 1.907 from 2014 to 2016. z Initiate coverage with “Neutral” rating and TP of HKD18.30. z 周生生是一家在大中华区具有强劲品牌的知名珠宝零售商。公司已在大中华区市场建立了一个巨大的珠宝零售网络，截至2013年12月31日拥有375家零售点。 z 周生生保持稳步扩张器珠宝零售网络，我们预计未来三年公司将每年新开20家零售点。公司直接运营所有的珠宝零售店而没有任何加盟商。虽然公司的扩张速度慢于其它珠宝零售商，但这种策略给予公司更高的运营效率和风险控制。 z 我们预计大陆居民的珠宝消费需求将随着可支配收入的增加以及中等收入群体、中高收入群体的扩大而不断上升。 z 由于高基数令香港和澳门零售点同店销售出现负增长，预计公司2014年公司收入小幅下降，但将从2015年恢复增长。公司每股盈利2014至2016年将分别增长-15.4%，10.1%和13.8%至1.522, 1.676 和1.907港元。 z 首次覆盖目标价为18.30港元，投资评级为“中性”。 Rating: Neutral Initial 评级： 中性 (首次研究)6-18m TP 目标价: HK$18.30Revised from 原目标价: n.a. Share price 股价： HK$17.600 Stock performance 股价表现 (40.0)(30.0)(20.0)(10.0)0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 May-13Aug -13No v-13Feb-14May-14% of returnHSI IndexChow Sang Sang Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年 Abs. % 绝对变动 % (8.0) (22.2)(18.2)Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 % (6.0) (23.5)(16.7)Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价（港元） 18.7 20.7 20.7 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Year End 年结 Turnover 收入 Net Profit 股东净利 EPS 每股净利 EPS每股净利变动PER市盈率BPS每股净资产PBR市净率DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE净资产收益率12/31 (HKD m) (HKD m) (HKD) (△%) (x) (HKD) (x) (HKD) (%) (%)2012A 18,260 985 1.455 -10.3%13.0 10.351 1.8 0.550 2.913 14.7 2013A 25,142 1,218 1.800 23.7%10.5 11.846 1.6 0.680 3.604 16.3 2014F 24,061 1,030 1.522 -15.4%12.4 12.837 1.5 0.533 2.821 12.5 2015F 26,201 1,134 1.676 10.1%11.3 13.929 1.4 0.587 3.107 12.6 2016F 29,431 1,291 1.907 13.8%9.9 15.171 1.2 0.667 3.535 13.2 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 676.9 Major shareholder 大股东 Cititrust Limited 20.1%Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 13,563.3 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 79.9%3 month average vol. 3个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 844.8 FY14 Net gearing (%) FY14净负债/股东资金 (%) 8.2%52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低 26.200 / 15.000 FY14 Est. NAV(HK$) FY14每股估值（港元） 27.4 Source︰the Company, Guotai Junan International. 16 May 2014 Chow Sang Sang 周生生 (00116 HK) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 21 Industry The macro economy of China is expected to maintain relatively fast growth in the next 5 years. Chinese macro economy rebounded faster than developed countries in the wake of global financial crisis. Although the economic growth of China is expected to slow down in the next few years due to economic structural reform, it is still expected to maintain above the level of about 7%, which is also much higher than that of western developed countries and most other countries. The new leaders of China intentionally slightly revise down GDP growth target to pursue more harmonious economic growth. In the mean time, we expect the GDP per capita of China to grow in accordance with that of macro economy and maintain growth at a high single digit. The disposal income of Chinese residents grew fast in the past