一家在香港和大陆市场快速发展的珠宝零售商

GTJA Research 国泰君安研究 Luk Fook Jewellery 六福珠宝 (00590 HK) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 21 Company Report: Luk Fook Jewellery (00590 HK) Kevin Guo 郭勇公司报告：六福珠宝 (00590 HK) +86 755 23976671kevin.guo@gtjas.com 6 March 2014 A Fast Developing Jewellery Retailer in HK and MainlandMarkets 一家在香港和大陆市场快速发展的珠宝零售商 z Luk Fook Jewellery is a fast developing jewellery retailer in the Hong Kong, Macau and Mainland China markets. Luk Fook puts forth maximum effort to reach its goal of becoming a globally recognized and desired brand, and is one of the Hong Kong’s most renowned brands in the luxury industry. z Luk Fook has established an extensive jewellery retail network in Hong Kong, Macau and Mainland China. The Company had a total of 1,188 POS in 1H2014 and 1,132 are located in Mainland China. The Company plans to open 150-200 POS each year in Mainland China in the next 3 years. z We expect jewellery consumption demand of Mainland China to continue to rise due to growing disposable income of residents and the expansion of middle-income and high middle-income groups. z Total revenue of the Company is expected to increase by 40.9%, 18.8% and 13.4%, respectively, from FY2014 to FY2016 due to expanding retail network and SSSG. Total EPS is expected to increase by 37.0%, 12.0% and 14.3%, respectively, to HKD 2.946, 3.299 and 3.711 from FY2014 to FY2016. z Initiate coverage with “Buy” rating and TP of HKD33.00. Our target price of HK$ 33.00 represents 10.0x FY15PE. z 六福珠宝是一家在香港、澳门和大陆市场快速发展的珠宝零售商。公司致力于使六福成为全球知名和喜爱的品牌以及香港知名的奢侈品牌之一。 z 六福在香港、澳门和中国大陆建立了一个广泛的珠宝零售网络。截止2014财年上半年公司共拥有1,188家零售点，其中1,132家位于大陆。公司计划未来3年在大陆每年新开150-200家零售点。 z 我们预计大陆居民的珠宝消费需求将随着可支配收入的增加以及中等收入群体、中高收入群体的扩大而不断上升。 z 随着零售网络的扩大以及同店销售增长，预计公司2014至2016财年的收入增长将分别达到40.9%，18.8%和13.4%。公司每股盈利2014至2016财年将分别增长37.0%，12.0%和14.3%至2.946, 3.299 和3.711港元。 z 首次覆盖目标价为33.00港元，相当于10.0倍FY15 PE, 投资评级为“买入”。 Rating: Buy Initial 评级： 买入 (首次研究)6-18m TP 目标价: HK$33.00Revised from 原目标价: n.a. Share price 股价： HK$25.500 Stock performance 股价表现 (40.0)(30.0)(20.0)(10.0)0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 Mar-13Jun -13Aug -13No v-13Feb-14% of returnHSI IndexLuk Fook Jewellery Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年 Abs. % 绝对变动 % (2.9) (11.1)1.2 Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 % (9.0) (6.4)1.1 Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价（港元） 26.8 27.7 23.9 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Year End 年结 Turnover 收入 Net Profit 股东净利 EPS 每股净利 EPS每股净利变动PER市盈率BPS每股净资产PBR市净率DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE净资产收益率03/31 (HKD m) (HKD m) (HKD) (△%) (x) (HKD) (x) (HKD) (%) (%)2012A 11,907 1,334 2.430 42.1%11.3 10.262 2.7 0.960 3.485 29.6 2013A 13,412 1,266 2.150 -11.5%12.8 11.298 2.4 0.860 3.122 21.1 2014F 18,902 1,735 2.946 37.0%9.4 12.777 2.2 1.178 4.277 25.0 2015F 22,453 1,944 3.299 12.0%8.3 14.602 1.9 1.485 5.389 24.3 2016F 25,452 2,222 3.771 14.3%7.3 16.310 1.7 2.074 7.529 24.6 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 589.1 Major shareholder 大股东 Luk Fook Control 39.8%Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 15,493.5 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 60.2%3 month average vol. 3个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 2,110.9 FY14 Net gearing (%) FY14净负债/股东资金 (%) Net cash52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低 34.000 / 16.880 FY14 Est. NAV(HK$) FY14每股估值（港元） 44.8 Source︰the Company, Guotai Junan International. 6 March 2014 Luk Fook Jewellery 六福珠宝 (00590 HK) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 21 Industry The macro economy of China is expected to maintain fast growth in the next 5 years. Chinese macro economy rebounded faster than developed countries in the wake of global financial crisis. Although the economic growth of China is expected to slow down in the next few years due to economic structural reform, it is still expected to maintain above the level of about 7%, which is also much higher than that of western developed countries and most other countries. The new leaders of China intentionally slightly revise down GDP growth target to pursue more harmonious economic growth. In the mean time, we expect the GDP per capita of China to grow in accordance with that of macro economy and maintain growth at a high single digit. The disposal income of Chinese residents grew fast in the past decade and the middle income group expande