奇虎360科技有限公司(QIHU.US)：更高的产品使用率 上调至“ 买入”

GTJA Research 国泰君安研究 Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd 奇虎360科技有限公司 (QIHU US) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 7 Company Report: Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd (QIHU US) 中文版 Ricky Lai 黎柏坚公司报告：奇虎360科技有限公司 (QIHU US) Chinese version +852 2509 2603ricky.lai@gtjas.com.hk 10 March 2014 Higher Product Utilization, Upgrade to “Buy” 更高的产品使用率，上调至“买入” z 4Q13 results were lower than market expectations, due to fiercer market competition which lowered the Company’s profit margins and one-off non-recurring performance based compensation expense of USD57 million in FY13. z Ramping up of mobile and search platforms monetization. Due to improving search engine market share and higher click through rate, we revise upwards FY14-15 online advertising revenue by 3.3%/4.4%, respectively. z FY14-15 Internet valued added service (IVAS) revenue is revised upwards by 18.6%/18.4%, due to the Company’s strategy of actively expanding mobile platform such as allowing free data traffic to mobile assistant application users and the introduction of new game titles. z Upgrade the investment rating to “Buy” and revise upwards the TP from US$109.00 to US$150.00. Due to the revenue adjustments of online advertising and IVAS revenues, we revise upwards FY14-15 earnings per ADS by 11.5%/18.5%. The new TP represents 113.9x FY14 PER, 75.9x FY15 PER, 61.5x FY16 PER, 25.0x FY14 PBR and 1.78 13-16 PEG. In light of Qihoo 360’s improvement in search engine market share and speed up of monetization progress, we upgrade the Company’s investment rating to “Buy”. z 13财年第4季度业绩低于市场预期，是由于利润率因市场竞争激烈而下降及13财年一次性的非经常按表现补偿费用为57百万美元。 z 移动和搜索平台货币化加快。由于提高搜索引擎市场率及更高的点击率，我们上调14-15财年在线广告收入3.3%/4.4%。 z 分别上调14-15财年互联网增值服务(IVAS)收入18.6%/18.4%，是由于公司积极推广移动平台如提供免费数据流量给手机助手程序的用户和引进新款游戏。 z 上调投资评级至“买入”及目标价从109.00美元上调至150.00美元。基于调整在线广告及互联网增值服务收入的预测，分别上调14-15财年的每份ADS盈利预测11.5%/18.5%。新目标价相当于113.9倍14年市盈率、75.9倍15年市盈率、61.5倍16年市盈率、25.0倍14年市净率及13-16财年PEG为1.78。由于奇虎360的搜索平台市占率持续改善及货币化加快歩伐，我们上调投资评级至“买入”。 Rating: Buy Upgraded 评级： 买入 (上调)6-18M TP 目标价: US$150.00 US$109.00 ADS price ADS 股价： US$120.790 Stock performance 股价表现 (50)0 50 100 150 200 250 Mar-13May-13Jul-13Sep-13Nov-13Dec-13Mar-14% change NASDAQ COMP IndexQIHOO 360 Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年Abs. % 绝对变动 % 25.2 48.7276.8Rel. % to NASDAQ index 相对纳指变动 % 20.7 41.9243.1Avg. ADS price(US$) 平均ADS股价（美元）107.3 92.568.0Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Year End 年结 Turnover 收入 Net Profit 股东净利 Earnings/ ADS 每份ADS净利 Earnings/ ADS每份ADS净利变动PER市盈率BPS每股净资产PBR市净率DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE净资产收益率12/31 (USD m) (USD m) (USD) (△%) (x) (USD) (x) (USD) (%) (%)2012A 329 47 0.265 166.3 455.9 2.710 44.6 0.000 0.0 11.0 2013A 671 100 0.554 109.0 218.2 4.094 29.5 0.000 0.0 16.4 2014F 1,187 249 1.317 137.9 91.7 5.997 20.1 0.000 0.0 26.6 2015F 1,660 391 1.975 50.0 61.1 8.567 14.1 0.000 0.0 27.6 2016F 2,109 505 2.440 23.5 49.5 11.634 10.4 0.000 0.0 24.6 ADS in issue (m) ADS总股数 (m) 81.0 Major shareholder 大股东 SRS Investment 8.4%Market cap. (US$ m) 市值 (US$ m) 21,863.0 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 79.23 month average vol. 3个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 3,009.5 FY14 Net gearing14年净负债/股东资金 (%) Net cash52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低 121.530/28.290 FY13-16 PEG (x) 1.4 Source︰The Company, Guotai Junan International. 10 March 2014 Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd 奇虎360科技有限公司 (QIHU US) Company Report 请见尾页免责声明 Page 2 of 7 13财年第4季度业绩低于市场预期，是由于利润率因市场竞争激烈而下降及13财年一次性的非经常按表现补偿费用为57百万美元。 表-1： 奇虎360的13财年第4季度损益表 美元（百万） 4Q13 4Q12同比评论 总收入 221.6 103.0 115.1% 是由于广告收入因其防毒产品及服务的普及而增长强劲 在线广告收入 142.4 66.9 112.9% 互联网增值服务收入 78.9 35.2 124.4% 收入成本 (30.2) (10.6)184.9% 收入成本上升是由于市场竞争加剧 毛利润 191.4 92.4 107.1% 销售及推广费用 (31.0) (18.6)66.7% 销售及推广费用同比增长强劲以提升流量增长一般及行政费用 (76.6)