敬请阅读末页的重要说明 研究报告 | 宏观研究 数据点评 欧元区2月PMI初值数据下滑，反映制造业扩张速度放缓 2014年2月21日 欧元区2月PMI初值数据点评 主要预测 美国 % 13E 14E GDP 1.9 2.5 CPI 2.1 1.9 失业率 7.5 6.7 外贸顺差/GDP -2.6 -2.5 财政赤字/GDP -4.0 -3.4 央行基准利率 0.25 0.25 美元指数 81.0 85.0 欧洲 % 13E 14E GDP -0.5 0.9 CPI 1.5 1.5 失业率 12.3 12.1 外贸顺差/GDP 1.54 2.3 财政赤字/GDP -2.8 -2.5 央行基准利率 0.25 0.25 欧元/美元 1.35 1.30 日本 % 13E 14E GDP 1.7 1.5 CPI 0.0 2.2 失业率 4.0 3.9 外贸顺差/GDP 0.9 1.5 财政赤字/GDP -9.7 -8.0 央行基准利率 0.1 0.1 日元/美元 105.3 108.0 资料来源：彭博，招商证券（香港） 事件: Markit 2月20日公布了2月欧元区PMI初值数据。2月综合PMI初值从52.9下降至52.7，制造业PMI初值从54.0下降至53.0。服务业PMI初值从51.6略上升至51.7。 点评: 2月PMI放缓主要反映欧元区制造业PMI扩张速度放缓和法国PMI恶化。我们认为2月PMI放缓不是一个大的意外，因为1月PMI是异常高的。我们在之前的报告中提到过欧元区的经济复苏将是个脆弱和不平衡的过程。我们维持之前的观点，欧元区将在2014年进入一个温和复苏状况，不认为2月的PMI放缓是一个很负面的消息。 1) 欧元区综合PMI下降主要受累于制造业PMI（下降1个百分点）下滑，但服务业PMI略上升（上升0.1个百分点）。2月数据是欧元区综合PMI连续8个月的扩张。制造业PMI下降主要反映产量子类别下降的负面影响比新订单和就业子类别上升的正面影响大。虽然整体上制造业PMI下滑，我们认为就业改善是好消息。 2) 德国2月综合PMI初值从55.9 上升至56.1，是32月新高，高于市场预测。德国PMI上升主要反映服务业从53.6上升至55.4，主要反映新订单，订单积压，以及就业子类别上升。相比，制造业扩张速度比1月要低，PMI从56.3下降至54.7，主要反映产量子类别放缓。德国的经济指标继续显示德国经济进入了稳定恢复状态。 3) 法国PMI重现恶化的状态，2月综合PMI从48.9下降至47.6。PMI下降主要反映服务业PMI下滑，从48.9下降至46.9，是9月以来新低。制造业PMI也下降了，从49.3下降至48.5。我们再次提醒投资者最近法国PMI的走势跟实体经济数据的差距扩大了。我们认为最近法国PMI的参考意义跟之前比要减少了，法国将在2014年继续维持温和经济复苏状态。 4) 本次公布的数据也提到了其他国家的表现继续改善，主要反映新出口订单继续改善。总体而言，我们认为外围国家的状况将在2014年改善，反映之前的财政整顿效率。 本次PMI数据的参考意义不光是看这个数据自己对市场的影响，而主要是要跟之前和未来公布的经济数据（特别是通胀数据）一起考虑。下周五欧洲央行将公布2月的通胀初值数据，我们认为这个数据对3月份的货币政策的影响比较大。虽然最近市场给欧洲央行降息的压力越来越大，我们目前还是维持欧洲央行将保持现状的预测。我们将在下周五公布通胀初值数据后更新我们的观点。 宋林 852-31896122 lynnsong@cmschina.com.hk 赵文利 博士, CFA 852-31896126 wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cn 谢亚轩 博士 86-755-83295524 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn See the important disclosures and analyst certification on the final page. Report | Macro Analysis Data comment February Eurozone Flash PMI data moderated, reflecting slowdown in manufacturing expansion 21 February, 2014 Comment on the February Eurozone Flash PMI data Key forecasts U.S. % 13E 14E 12 13E GDP 1.9 2.5 1.7 1.9 CPI 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.1 Unemployment 7.5 6.7 8.1 7.5 Current Account /GDP -2.6 -2.5 -2.7 -2.6 Fiscal balance /GDP -4.0 -3.4 -6.7 -5.8 Policy rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Dollar index 81.0 85.0 79.7 81.0 Eurozone % 13E 14E 12 13E GDP -0.5 0.9 -0.6 -0.5 CPI 1.5 1.5 2.5 1.5 Unemployment 12.3 12.1 11.4 12.3 Current Account /GDP 1.54 2.3 1.28 1.54 Fiscal balance /GDP -2.8 -2.5 -3.7 -2.8 Policy rate 0.25 0.25 0.75 0.25 EUR/USD 1.35 1.30 1.32 1.35 Japan % 13E 14E 12 13E GDP 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.7 CPI 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 Unemployment 4.0 3.9 4.3 4.0 Current Account /GDP 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.9 Fiscal balance /GDP -9.7 -8.0 -9.9 -10.0 Policy rate 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 USD/JPY 105.3 108.0 86.8 98.0 Sources: Bloomberg, CMS (HK) Lynn SONG 852-31896122 lynnsong@cmschina.com.hk Dr. Cliff ZHAO, CFA 852-31896126 wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cn Dr. David XIE 86-755-83295524 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn Event: Markit released its February Eurozone flash PMI figures on February 20th. Eurozone February flash composite PMI dipped to 52.7 from 52.9, flash manufacturing PMI fell to 53.0 from 54.0. In contrast, flash services PMI rose to 51.7 from 51.6. Comment: February PMI moderated, mostly due to a slowdown of manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone, as well as due to continued poor performance of France’s PMI. The moderation in February was not a big surprise, as January’s PMI was unusually strong. As we have stated in our previous reports, the Eurozone recovery will be fragile and uneven. We maintain our view that 2014 will be a year of modest recovery, and do not view February’s moderation as cause for concern. 1. The decline in the Eurozone composite PMI was due to a slowdown in manufacturing PMI (down 1.0 ppt), while services PMI edged up (0.1 ppt). February’s release marked the eighth straight month of expansion. The manufacturing PMI slowdown primarily reflected a dip in output outweighing an improvement in employment. Although the headline data moderated, continued improvement in the employment subcategory was encouraging. 2. Germany’s February flash composite PMI registered at 56.1, up from 55.9, a 32 month high, higher than market expectations. The improvement was led by services, which rose to 55.4 from 53.6, mostly attributed to a rise in new orders, backlog of orders, and employment. In contrast, manufacturing expanded at a slower pace compared to January, falling to 54.7 from 56.3, as output slowed. Germany’s economic data continues to show the recovery is on track in the Eurozone’s largest economy. 3. France’s PMI continued to deteriorate after a one month rebound in January. France’s February flash composite PMI registered at 47.6, down from 48.9 in January. The slowdown primarily reflected a slowdown of services activity, which fell to 46.9 from 48.9 (a 9 month low), while manufacturing also fell, dropping to 48.5 from 49.3. We continue to reiterat