华鑫证券策略鑫复盘

 A40.24%0.04%027%1561.863519100.7%1%A629002900 图表：部分市场利率及汇率情况0.000%1.000%2.000%3.000%4.000%5.000%6.000%SHIBOR:隔夜 -50.00-30.00-10.0010.0030.0050.0070.0090.00-80.00%-60.00%-40.00%-20.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%日均耗煤量:6大发电集团合计（万吨）同比增减-50.000.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%粗钢日均产量(万吨）同比增减图表：六大发电集团日均耗煤量图表：重点钢企粗钢日均产量（旬度更新）俄罗斯央行降息25个基点至7.25%。俄罗斯卢布兑美元短线波动不大。德国6月进口物价指数同比降2%，预期降1.5%，前值降0.2%；环比降1.4%，预期降0.8%，前值降0.1%。资料来源：Wind 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%M1同比增速M2同比增速6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%10.00%11.00%12.00%13.00%14.00%15.00%16.00%社会融资规模存量增速各项贷款余额增速图表：新增信贷情况-10000-5000050001000015000-10000-5000050001000015000货币净投放货币投放货币回笼图表：公开市场投放周度数据（亿元）图表：货币供应量情况资料来源：Wind 1601651701751801851901952002055007009001100130015001700190021002300南华综合指数BDI指数RJ/CRB指数（右轴）46,980.00.04%1,466.52.55%9,203.00.01%13,840.00.51%63.40.33%4,085.01.34%16,790.01.76%56.00.25%4,469.00.00%19,230.0-0.34%27.70.11%938.50.81%110,100.0-1.28%2,788.0-0.89%7,430.0-3.94%133,800.00.00%5,398.01.50%6,975.00.00%3,951.00.43%4,742.00.00%10,680.01.18%318.6-0.47%13,250.00.72%2,123.0-0.38%2,231.50.00%5,277.00.02%3,372.00.00%2019-07-191,513.80.62%2,170.01.88%178.70.90%2019-07-221,493.5-1.34%2,191.00.97%178.5-0.12%2019-07-231,489.8-0.25%2,165.0-1.19%179.00.27%2019-07-241,483.3-0.44%2,014.0-6.97%178.3-0.39%2019-07-251,485.90.18%1,947.0-3.33%177.9-0.24%2019-07-223,777.0-0.51%-4.72,886.4-0.24%4.54,738.4-1.68%-38.2100.20.03%99.80.08%98.40.13%2019-07-233,779.60.07%-10.32,880.0-0.22%-1.14,777.40.82%-46.5100.20.00%99.8-0.03%98.3-0.02%2019-07-243,807.40.74%-12.42,900.40.71%-6.24,821.20.92%-51.8100.2-0.03%99.7-0.09%98.2-0.18%2019-07-253,837.60.79%-13.52,925.00.85%-6.24,837.20.33%-54.4100.20.01%99.70.03%98.20.03%2019-07-263,852.80.40%-5.82,936.20.38%-3.24,853.40.33%-44.7100.20.00%99.80.02%98.20.04%华鑫证券研究发展部 股票的投资评级说明： 投资建议 预期个股相对沪深300指数涨幅 1 推荐 >15% 2 审慎推荐 5%---15% 3 中性 (-)5%--- (+)5% 4 减持 (-)15%---(-)5% 5 回避 <(-)15% 以报告日后的6个月内，证券相对于沪深300指数的涨跌幅为标准。 行业的投资评级说明： 投资建议 预期行业相对沪深300指数涨幅 1 增持 明显强于沪深300指数 2 中性 基本与沪深300指数持平 3 减持 明显弱于沪深300指数 以报告日后的6个月内，行业相对于沪深300指数的涨跌幅为标准。