行业报告 科技行业│中国│2019年7月11日 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CIMB SECURITIES (USA), INC. AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH. Powered by the EFA Platform 科技行业 6月行业同比增长未有大幅回升；亮点包括笔记本代工厂、VCSEL和5G上游相关公司 ■在过去一个月，香港上市的硬件股表现落后于A股、台湾和海外上市同业。■台湾上市的科技股公布了6月营业额数据。总体而言，同比增长没有大幅回升。笔记本ODM、VCSEL和5G上游的相关公司是亮点。■在G20峰会后，市场对香港上市硬件股的看法有一定改善，但对增长前景的担忧（尤其是对于苹果阵营）仍限制了股价上升空间，这情况与我们之前的讨论一致。■宏观局势的消息将继续主导板块表现。一些投资者或会等待多家硬件公司在8月公布中报后才重新评估板块表现。■科创板将于7月22日开始交易，这仍是资本市场的热话。我们仍看好中国铁塔[0788.HK]、中兴通讯[0763.HK]、昂纳科技集团[0877.HK]、槟杰科达[1665.HK]和巨腾国际[3336.HK]。手机组件股仍存在交易机会，而冠捷科技[0903.HK]亦值得关注。6月营业额增速未有恶化虽然G20峰会后市场情绪改善，但平均而言香港硬件科技股表现仍落后于大盘及A股、台湾和海外同业。我们认为，香港硬件科技股表现不佳是由于：a）市场对苹果阵营前景感到担忧；b）一些小盘股表现不佳；c）一些宏观因素。部分硬件股如舜宇光学科技[2382.HK]、丘钛科技[1478.HK]、中兴通讯[0763.HK]、联想[0992.HK]、槟杰科达[1665.HK]及冠捷科技[0903.HK]有较佳表现。在苹果阵营中，如玉晶光（镜头）、GIS（触控解决方案）、可成科技＆铠胜控股（外壳）和台积电（代工厂）等上游公司的6月收入同比增长较5月加快。我们相信，玉晶光的表现（与大立光电相比）反映苹果阵营的表现稳定，而台积电的6月营业额数据对市场来说是为惊喜。 中期而言四个投资主题仍为热话 即使华为的订单减少，但安卓阵营6月的表现也颇为坚挺（与5月相比）。联发科技在6月的同比增长优于5月，这反映安卓短期内的前景或略为优于预期。但是我们重申，中国推出5G可能也会影响中国安卓阵营的产品推出计划，因为预计电信运营商将在未来几个月内公布其资费计划。市场猜测华为将在本月或8月于中国市场正式推出5G机型。我们仍然认为，未来几周市场将继续关注苹果在9月推出的新产品。但是，市场对苹果阵营的股份持谨慎看法，因为有消息称苹果新iPhone手机订单同比下降20％。早在2018年四季度和2019年一季度，市场对公司清理库存存有高期望。对于供应链来说，苹果公司较不积极下发新iPhone订单并不是一件坏事。然而在6月，致茂电子、上银科技、亚德客和亚德客等上游机械和材料公司的收入表现继续令人失望，平均而言，该板块的6月收入同比跌幅较5月扩大，并是自2017年1月以来最坏的情况。我们仍然认为，投资者会较看好那些正在获得市场份额、产品组合和生产基地正变得更多样化的公司。预计在中期而言，以下四个投资主题仍将是市场热话：a）5G；b）下一代终端；c）物联网/边缘计算；d）RICS-V开发。尽管电信设备和一些定位独特的板块（特别是VSCEL股份）在近期已跑赢大盘，但我们仍然看好这些股份。我们还认为，手机组件股在短期内存在交易机会。 八个细分市场的6月收入增长加快 大多数在台湾上市的科技股（材料和设备、晶圆、半导体、IC设计、晶圆、LED、光通信、PCB、TFT-LCD、外壳、镜头、DRAM、ODM、光学元件和外壳、网络、PCB、汽车电子、终端和分销）公布了6月营业额。有八个细分市场 - 晶圆、晶圆代工、光通信、多氯联苯、外壳、ODM、OBM和终端 - 在6月的同比增长高于5月。总体而言，营业额同比增长未有较5月大幅回升，但亦没有进一步恶化。至于PC方面，PCB公司微星科技和技嘉科技6月表现较5月为佳。宏基6月的表现较5月良好。华硕的6月表现与5月持平。笔记本ODM出货量强劲，我们较看好巨腾[3336.HK]。 中国 分析员 布家杰 T (852) 3698 6318 E markpo@chinastock.com.hk 王志文 T (852) 3698 6317E cmwong@chinastock.com.hkT (852) 3698 6317 E cmwong@chinastock.com.hk Sector Note Technology│China│July 11, 2019 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CIMB SECURITIES (USA), INC. AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH. Powered by the EFA Platform Technology - Others No major pick up YoY growth in Jun 2019. Bright spots are notebook ODMs, VCSEL and 5G upstream ■HK-listed hardware names underperformed the market and their peers in the A-share, Taiwan and overseas markets on a one-month basis.■Taiwan-listed technology names reported their Jun 2019 turnover. In general, therewas no major pick-up in YoY growth. Notebook ODMs, VCSEL and 5G upstream arethe bright spots.■In line with our previous discussion, sentiment on HK-listed hardware namesimproved somewhat after the G20 meeting, but concern about the growth outlook(especially for Apple camp names) capped their upside.■Macro news flow will continue to dominate. Some investors may wait for the 1H 2019results in Aug to re-evaluate the hardware names.■SSE STAR will kick off trading on 22 Jul and remain a hot topic in the capital markets.We still prefer China Tower [0788.HK], ZTE [0763.HK], O-Net [0877.HK],Pentamaster [1665.HK] and Ju Teng [3336.HK]. Handset component names still offera trading opportunity and that TPV [0903.HK] looks interesting.No deterioration in YoY turnover growth in Jun 2019 On average, the HK-listed hardware names have underperformed the market and their A-share-,Taiwan- and overseas-listed peers despite improved sentiment after the G20 meeting. In our view, their share price underperformance is due to a) concerns about the outlook for the Apple camp, b) the poor performance of some small-cap names, and c) some macro issues. Some hardware names, such as Sunny Optical [2382.HK], Q-Tech [1478.HK], ZTE [0763.HK], Lenovo [0992.HK], Pentamaster [1665.HK] and TPV [0903.HK], outperformed. In the Apple camp, upstream names, such as Genius (lenses), GIS (touch solutions), Catcher & Castek (casings) and TSMC (foundry), reported faster YoY turnover growth in Jun vs. May 2019. We believe that Genius’s performance (vs. Largan’s) is an indication of stabilization of performance of Apple camp names, and that TSMC’s Jun 2019 turnover figures were a positive surprise for the market. Four investment themes to remain hot in the medium term Even with weaker orders from Huawei, the performance of Android camp names was somewhat resilient in Jun 2019 vs. May 2019. Mediatek’s better YoY growth in Jun 2019 vs. May 2019 was a positive signal and may indicate that the near-term outlook for Android camp names is somewhat better than originally expected. However, we reiterate the view that the 5G roll-out in China