美联储降息预期升温，重点关注黄金板块
规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 华鑫证券·行业周报 证券研究报告·行业报告 市场表现 一周行情回顾：上周，沪深300指数上涨4.9%，有色板块上涨1.93%，跑输沪深300指数2.97个百分点。有色金属子板块中，黄金板块涨幅居前，为6.18%；稀土板块跌幅居前，为-5.68%，其次为钨板块，跌幅为-3.6%。上周，美联储议息会议维持利率不变，并下调全年通胀预期，美联储年内降息预期升温，贵金属板块大幅上涨。受中重稀土矿供给收缩以及政策利好推动，国内稀土价格仍维持偏强走势。 有色金属价格变化：上周，美联储在政策声明中取消对利率政策保持“耐心”的表述，市场对美联储年内降息的预期升温，短期提振市场风险偏好。上周，LME铜价格上涨2.62%，LME铅价格上涨1.9%。受美联储年内降息预期推动，贵金属价格单周大涨，Comex黄金价格上涨4.29%，突破1400美元/盎司整数关口；Comex白银价格上涨3.3%。上周，金属钴价格下跌1.62%，硫酸钴价格下跌2.44%，四氧化三钴价格下跌2.32%，碳酸锂价格下跌2.61%，氢氧化锂价格下跌1.74%，三元材料价格下跌0.74%。稀土方面，上周氧化镝价格上涨0.76%至199.5万元/吨，氧化钕价格上涨1.13%至35.9万元/吨。 行业资讯及公司公告：美铝预计2019年电解铝销售量为280-290万吨；PT CNI印尼镍冶炼厂拟于2021年投产，镍含量为22%至24%；罗平锌电全资子公司德荣矿业金坡铅锌矿停产；山东黄金拟收购控股股东持有的山金金控资本100%股权；天齐锂业拟向全体股东配股融资70亿元。 投资建议：本周本周个股建议积极关注：黄金涨价受益标的山东黄金（600547.SH）和中金黄金（600489.SH）；中重稀土涨价受益标的五矿稀土（000831.SZ）和广晟有色（600259.SH）。此外中长期建议关注具有竞争优势的核心企业：锂盐成本领先的锂资源龙头天齐锂业（002466.SZ）、硅基新材料龙头企业合盛硅业（603260.SH）。 风险提示：矿山大幅投产，有色金属供给增加；全球经济增速大幅下降；全球资本市场系统性风险。 指数/板块 过去一周涨跌幅（%） 过去一月涨跌幅（%） 年初至今涨跌幅（%） 上证综指 4.16 5.24 20.37 深证成指 4.59 4.59 27.27 创业板指 5.66 5.32 23.1 沪深300 4.9 6.97 27.35 有色(申万) 1.93 9.13 22.73 工业金属 2.23 7.65 21.3 金属新材料 2.23 7.72 35.18 黄金 6.18 23.11 17.04 稀有金属 -0.97 4.96 20.65 指数表现（最近一年） 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：徐鹏 执业证书编号：S1050516020001 联系人：谢玉磊 电话：021-54967579 邮箱：xieyl@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn -30.00%-25.00%-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%有色金属(申万)沪深3002019年6月24日 有色金属 美联储降息预期升温，重点关注黄金板块 行业评级：中性 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 证券研究报告·行业报告 目 录 1． 本周观点及投资建议 ................................................................................................................................................. 3 2． 一周行情回顾 ............................................................................................................................................................. 3 2.1美联储年内降息预期升温，黄金板块大幅走强 ············································································································· 3 2.2 全球经济增速放缓，有色板块高估值或承压 ················································································································ 4 3． 行业资讯及重点公司公告 .......................................................................................................................................... 5 3.1 行业资讯 ··········································································································································································· 5 3.2 重要公司公告 ···································································································································································· 6 4． 有色金属价格及库存 ................................................................................................................................................. 7 4.1. 有色金属价格 ··································································································································································· 7 4.2. 基本金属库存 ··································································································································································· 8 5． 风险提示 .................................................................................................................................................................. 10 图表目录 图表1：上周各行业板块涨跌幅 .............................................................................. 3 图表2：上周有色金属子板块涨跌幅 .......................................................................... 4 图表3：有色行业股票一周涨跌幅前十位 ...................................................................... 4 图表4：有色行业股票一周涨跌幅后十位 ...................................................................... 4 图表5：申万一级行业滚动市盈率（单位：倍） ................................................................ 5 图表6：有色金属行业滚动市盈率（单位：倍） ................................................................ 5 图表7：基本金属和贵金属价格涨跌幅 ........................................................................ 7 图表8：小金属价格涨跌幅 .................................................................................. 7 图表9：稀土涨跌幅 ........................................................................................ 8 图表10：铜价及库存 ....................................................................................... 9 图表11：铝价及库存 ....................................................................................... 9 图表12：锌价及库存 ....................................................................................... 9 图表13：铅价及库存 ....................................................................................... 9 图表14：镍价及库存 ....................................................................................... 9 图表15：锡价及库存 ....................................................................................... 9 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明3 证券研究报告·行业报告 1． 本周观点及投资建议 上周，美联储在政策声明中取消对利率政策保持“耐心”的表述，并将经济活动增速从上次会议的“稳固”调降至“缓和”。美国经济前景面临的不确定
