QUAM 華富固定收益研報 二○一五年十二月十七日星期四Thursday, December 17, 2015 Quam Fixed Income Research 華富嘉洛證券期貨 | 策略研究部 SECURITIES & FUTURES PETBRA 31/2 02/17 Issuer：Petrobras Global Finance Currency：USD Maturity date：02/06/2017 Interest Rate：Fixed @3.5% p.a.，semi-annual Yield to maturity：10.899% (Moody’s)/(S&P)/(Fitch) Bond Ratings：Ba3/ BB/ BBB- (Moody’s)/(S&P)/(Fitch) Issuer Rating outlook： Stable/ -/ Negative 1 隨著人民幣貶值，是次關注焦點轉移以美元計價的海外債券。巴西國家石油公司為拉丁美洲最大的石油和天然氣公司，發行了多張2016至2115年到期的債券，報價由63至100不等。穆迪賦予02/2017票據Ba3評級，而目前孳息率為10.899%。 以下為巴西國家石油公司31/2 02/17的主要條款： 發行人：Petrobras Global Finance (巴西國家石油公司) 貨幣：美元 到期日：2017年2月6日 息率：定息3.5%，每半年派息一次 到期收益率：10.899% (穆迪)/(標普)/(惠譽) 債券評級：Ba3/ BB/ BBB- (穆迪)/(標普)/(惠譽) 發行人評級展望：穩定/-/負面 集團於1953年成立，為巴西國有企業，並且是巴西最大的原油和天然氣生產及提煉商。集團曾是巴西石油和天然氣產品的獨家供應商，但目前巴西的石油行業已經開放競爭。雖然如此，基於集團豐富的經驗，以及與政府的關係帶來競標方面的優勢，集團產量依然占全國的絕大多數。 業務前景 作為一間綜合的石油和天然氣公司，巴西國家石油公司同時營運上游，煉油，跨境商業及運輸石油、天然氣及其它相關產品的不同業務。除了巴西，該集團亦在全球16個國家運營，包括在美國、日本的駐點以及非洲尼日利亞的合資企業。 經營角度上，集團主要業務包括六項，分別是開採和生產，煉製、運輸和銷售，分銷，天然氣和電力，生物燃料以及國際業務。 With significant depreciation in RMB, we try to shift our focus to overseas bonds in USD. In Latin America, the largest oil and gas company in Brazil, Petrobras, has bonds outstanding with maturity from 2016 to 2115 at the price range of 100 to 63. With bond rating of Ba3, the 02/2017 note is now trading at 10.899%. Major terms of PETBRA 31/2 02/17 are listed below： Issuer：Petrobras Global Finance Currency：USD Maturity date：02/06/2017 Interest Rate：Fixed @3.5% p.a.，semi-annual Yield to maturity：10.899% (Moody’s)/(S&P)/(Fitch) Bond Ratings：Ba3/ BB/ BBB- (Moody’s)/(S&P)/(Fitch) Issuer Rating outlook： Stable/ - / Negative Incorporated in 1953, Petrobras is the largest operator of crude oil and natural gas production and refining activities in Brazil on behalf of the government. In terms of market position, Petrobras now sits in a competitive environment, while it used to be the sole supplier for oil and gas products in Brazil. However, based on its solid experience and relationship with government especially in contract bidding circumstances, the group now still accounts for the majority of Brazil’s oil and gas production. BUSINESS OUTLOOK As an integrated oil and gas company, Petrobras carried out upstream, oil refining, cross‐border commercialization and transportation activities in Brazil of oil, natural gas and their respective products. Besides Brazil, the group operated in 16 countries worldwide, which included operations in US and Japan, as well as joint ventures in Nigeria in Africa. From business’s perspective, the group categorized operation into six segments, which are exploration and production, refining, transportation and marketing, distribution, gas and power, biofuel, and international. PETBRA 3 1/2 02/17 2 其中，石油及天然氣開採為集團最重要的收入來源，主要在巴西境內作業。對於當地開採，巴西國家石油公司擁有領先的技術和行業知識，約90％的產量來自海上儲備，而78%屬於深水甚至是超深水儲備。開採的主要產品是石油和天然氣，分別佔總產出量的89%和11%。 圖1：巴西國家石油公司收入佔比(內圈： 2014年度；外圈： 2015第一季度） 集團的儲備中主要在四處近海盆地，包括了坎波斯，桑托斯，聖埃斯皮裡圖州和塞爾希培—阿拉戈阿斯。細分到地區，坎波斯盆地擁有的儲量占集團國內儲量的62.7％ ，但最為豐富的油藏，包括鹽下油藏，均位於近海的桑托斯盆地。這意味著，雖然坎波斯目前產量最大，但桑托斯憑其豐富的深水儲備，在未來將可能成為主要的利潤來源。 至於煉油方面，集團在巴西擁有13個煉油廠，幾乎佔據全國大部分煉油基地，亦是為全球最大的精煉運營商之一。近年來，巴西國內供不應求，煉油規模擴大了2.1 ％ ，但2014年消費量亦增長了2.7 ％。因此，即使已經接近滿負荷運作，集團近年來一直以進口來滿足其生產量需求。 51% 28% 11% 9% 1% 0% 51% 29% 10% 9% 1% 0% Refining,Transportation, &Marketing Net Distribution Net Gas & Power Net International Net Exploration &Production Net BiofuelsExploration has been the most important income source for Petrobras, and the exploration mainly operates within Brazil. For domestic exploration, 90% of the production comes from offshore reserve, while 78% is deep water and even some is ultra-water, on which Petrobras has leading technology and industry expertise as the international pioneer. Generally, oil and natural gas is the main product from exploration, which accounted for 89% and 11% respectively. Figure1: Revenue Decomposition for PETBRA (Inner circle: FY2014, outer circle: 1Q2015) Among their proved reserves, there are mainly four offshore basins, including Campos, Santos, Espirito Santo and Sergipe-Alggoas. Specifically, while Campos Basin has over 62.7% of domestic proved reserves, the most promising deepwater fields including those pre-salt reservoirs are located in the offshore Santos Basin. That’s to say, Campos is the largest basin in terms of current production, whereas Santos could be the future profit drive with its deep water reserve exploration. As for refining, the group operated substantially all of the refining capacity in Brazil with 13 refineries, and it is also one of the largest refining operators in the world. In recent years, domestic demand far outweighed supply, while refineries expanded by 2.1%, cons