华富固定收益研报

QUAM 華富固定收益研報 二○一五年十二月三十一日星期四Thursday, December 31, 2015 Quam Fixed Income Research 華富嘉洛證券期貨 | 策略研究部 SECURITIES & FUTURES GRNCH 8 03/19： Issuer：Greentown China Holdings (03900.HK) Currency：USD Maturity date：03/24/2019 Next Redemption Date: 03/24/2017 Next Redemption Price: 104% Interest Rate：Fixed @8% p.a.，semi-annual Yield to maturity：4.78% (Moody’s)/(S&P)/(Fitch) Bond Ratings： B1/BB-/- (Moody’s)/(S&P)/(Fitch)rating Issuer Rating outlook：Positive / Stable / - 1 隨著中國房地產行業進一步發展，今年頭個十一月中國的銷售面積同比增長了6.8%。銷售勢頭逐漸增長，本週我們關注中國其中一家大型的房地產開發商——綠城中國。 以下為綠城中國8 03/19的主要條款： 發行人：綠城中國控股(03900.HK) 貨幣：美元 到期日：2019年3月24日 下個贖回日期：2017年3月24日 下個贖回價格：104 % 息率：定息8%，每半年派息一次 到期收益率：4.78% (穆迪)/(標普)/(惠譽) 債券評級：B1/BB-/- (穆迪)/(標普)/(惠譽) 發行人評級展望：正面/穩定/- 綠城中國成立於1995年，總部設於浙江省，是中國領先的房地產開發商之一。物業項目涵蓋了大部分浙江省經濟較繁榮的城市，包括了杭州，寧波，台州，紹興等其他地區。 業務前景 自三月開始，國家多次政策寬鬆令房地產行業溫和復甦，借貸成本下降從而刺激了樓市，支持了房地產的持續復甦。 圖：過去兩年的合約銷售金額以及合約銷售面積 020406080100120140160180JanMarMayJulSepNov合約銷售面積(萬平方米)-2014 合約銷售面積(萬平方米)-2015 合約銷售金額（億人民幣）-2014 合約銷售金額（億人民幣）-2015 With a significant upbeat in China property sector, the YTD Sales GFA Volume of China until November has surged 6.8% yoy. With a resilient momentum in sales, this week we focus on a high-yield note issued by one of the largest China property developers Greentown China Holdings. Major terms of GRNCH 8 03/19 are listed below： Issuer：Greentown China Holdings (03900.HK) Currency：USD Maturity date：03/24/2019 Next Redemption Date: 03/24/2017 Next Redemption Price: 104% Interest Rate：Fixed @8% p.a.，semi-annual Yield to maturity：4.78% (Moody’s)/(S&P)/(Fitch) Bond Ratings： B1/BB-/- (Moody’s)/(S&P)/(Fitch)rating Issuer Rating outlook：Positive / Stable / - Greentown China incorporated in 1995 has been based in Zhejiang Province. It is one of the leading property developers in China. Property projects covered most of the economically prosperous cities in Zhejiang Province such as Hangzhou, Ningbo, Taizhou, Shaoxing and other cities. BUSINESS OUTLOOK In China, real estate industry is in a mild recovery with a series of policy easing commenced in March, which triggers a rally of physical property market and a cheaper borrowing cost to buyers supporting the ongoing recovery. Figure: Contracted Sales and Contracted Sales Area in past two years 020406080100120140160180JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec合約銷售面積(萬平方米)-2014 合約銷售面積(萬平方米)-2015 合約銷售金額（億人民幣）-2014 合約銷售金額（億人民幣）-2015 GRNCH 8 03/19 2 ‘ 截至今年11月，集團已實現了578億人民幣的合約銷售額，合約銷售面積為315萬平方米，同比分別下降13.3％和4.8％。截至十一月的整體平均售價為每平方米18,349元人民幣，比去年同期低出1,800人民幣。集團已經完成了96%的全年銷售目標。另外，集團的累計已簽認購協議未轉銷售合同的金額約人民幣31億元，因此600億的合約銷售目標是可實現的。值得留意的是，雖然合約銷售額同比有下降的趨勢，但完成銷售目標達96%，仍跑贏部分中國的房地產開發商，例如雅居樂僅達到了84.6%的全年銷售目標。 另外，集團在今年上半年的收入錄得107.56億人民幣，而當中房地產銷售佔比90.4%，其次為設計和裝修(4.5%)以及酒店營運(2.4%)。上半年收入與上年同期比較下跌14.4％。歸屬於公司的利潤錄得5.19億人民幣，同比下降15.3％。 土地儲備 圖：集團的土地儲備地區分佈 13% 31% 4% 20% 7% 5% 2% 18% HangzhouZhejiang (excludeHangzhou)The Yangtze River DeltaArea (exclude Zhejiang)ShandongLiaoningHainanBeijingOther citiesAs one of the leading property developers, the group has generated RMB 57.8 billion contracted sales for 11M2015 and achieved 3.15 million GFA, down 13.3% yoy and 4.8% yoy respectively. The overall average selling price in November was RMB 18,349 per sqm, which was RMB 1800 lower than last year. However, the Group has already achieved 96% of the annual sales target of RMB 60 billion despite of the slump in contracted sales. In addition to the contracted sales, the Group recorded subscription sales of RMB 3.1 billion until November, therefore it is achievable for RMB 60 billion contracted sales target. Even the Group’s contracted sales has weakened, while its performances in achieving target sales still outperformed compared to some other property developers in China, such as Agile Property which only achieved its sales target of 84.6% . During the first half year of 2015, the Group obtained RMB 10.756 billion revenues and the major profit driver was property sales and it is accounting for 90.4% of total revenues and followed by 4.5% of design and decoration and 2.4% of hotel operation. The revenues for the first half year plunged 14.4% yoy, not merely this, Profit attributable to the owners is accounted for RMB 519 million, down 15.3% yoy. LAND BANK Figure: Geographic GFA allocation of Greentown China for 1H2015 13% 31% 4% 20% 7% 5% 2% 18% HangzhouZhejiang (excludeHangzhou)The Yangtze River DeltaArea (exclude Zhejiang)ShandongLiaoningHainanBeijingOther cities GRNCH 8 03/19 3 截至今年六月底，綠城中國擁有約3,324萬平方米的土地儲備，其中約1,919萬平方米歸屬集團。總銷售面積佔比約2,244萬平方米，平均地價為每平方米人民幣2,766。在上半年，集團獲得了浙江一個新的項目，佔總建築面積的9.3％，同時驅使浙江的總土地儲備佔比達到31%。若包含了浙江以及杭州，整個長江三角洲地區的土地儲備達全部的48.4%。另外，山東為集團佔地面積第二大的區域，佔土地儲備的20.6%。對於長三角及華東地區，國家統計局70城市於11月住宅銷售價格的指數為106.2，自今年年頭來有逐漸上升的趨勢，所以有望該地區的ASP會有所提升。 負債及現金流 圖：截至2015年中集團的負債和現金狀況 雖然集團今年的現金流由上年的87億人民幣升至101億人民幣，所以以目前的現金狀況來評論，僅足夠支付