业务稳定增长及高息率带来防守力

18 January 2016 研究報告 Please read the important notice on last page Not rated 目標價 N/A 收盤價(18 Jan 2016) HK$ 9.59 潛在上升空間 N/A Key Data 行業 電訊 52週高點 10.70 52週低點 7.60 市值 (港幣 十億元) 9.6 市值 (美元 十億元) 1.2 總股數 (百萬) 1005.7 Share Price Performance (%) YTD 1M 3M 12M 絕對報酬 (4.1) (5.4) 9.0 N/A 相對報酬 （恒生指數） 8.1 6.2 25.6 N/A Investment Summary FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A 營收 (百萬港元) N/A 1949.4 2131.6 2341.1 YoY Change (%) N/A N/A 9.3 9.8 純利 (百萬港元) N/A (139.0) 53.6 104.3 YoY Change (%) N/A N/A N/A 94.7 EPS (港元) N/A N/A 0.05 0.10 YoY Change (%) N/A N/A N/A 92.6 P/E (x) N/A N/A N/A 76.9 P/B (x) N/A N/A N/A 5.3 Source: Company data, CSC Research estimates Share Price vs HSI Source: Bloomberg All data are as of 18 Jan, 2016 Eric Wong (852) 2105-1101 Eric_wong@e-capital.com.hk 香港寬頻 (1310.HK) 業務穩定增長及高息率帶來防守力  電話會議紀錄 我們與香港寬頻進行電話會議，重點如下: 住宅用戶: 集團現時已覆蓋香港80%住宅，未來5年覆蓋率可達85%。集團市場份額為36.6%，主要競爭對手香港電訊市場份額約為45%，和記電訊及有線寬頻等對手佔額較小。集團將持續爭取現時使用其他對手低網速計畫的用戶轉用集團的服務。2015年財年集團的住宅寬頻用戶數淨增加62000戶至754000戶，住宅ARPU亦按年增加5%至183港元。集團預期未來增長主要來自客戶人數增長，ARPU則維持穩定。另一方面，OTT及4K內容將提升用戶對高速寬頻的需求，集團與Letv合作推出體育套餐及與Netflix合推線上串流服務將成為未來發展亮點。 企業客戶: 客戶增長主要來自中小企，2015年財年企業客戶數淨增加7000戶至39000戶， ARPU則按年減少2%至1010港元，市場份額由去年同期的12.0%上升至14.3%。與住宅用戶一樣，未來增長仍是來自客戶人數，ARPU以穩定為目標。  近期業績及財務狀況 2015年財年(截至2015年8月底)集團營業額按年增加10%至23.4億港元，歸因於寬頻用戶數目增長及住宅和企業業務市場份額上升。住宅收益按年增長8%至17.6億港元，主要來自競爭對手舊有慢速銅線傳輸服務的客戶轉用集團的光纖服務。企業收益按年增長12%至4.8億港元，歸因於集團專注於開拓中小企市場並為中小企客戶提供完善的服務組合。營運成本方面，集團網絡成本及銷售成本按年上升7%至3.1億港元，廣告及營銷開支、員工成本及折舊則分別按年增加6%、9%及12%至4.0億港元、4.0億港元及3.7億港元。由於與住宅及企業客戶簽立的未完成固定電訊網絡服務業務已於2014年財年全數攤銷，無形資產攤銷減少51%至1.1億港元。集團純利，經調整純利及息稅折舊攤銷前利潤分別為1.0億港元、3.6億港元及9.8億港元，分別按年增加95%、42%及16%。 集團的現金及現金等價物總額為3.3億港元，總負債則為31.0億港元。集團已訂立一項名義價值為26.35億港元的利率掉期安排，根據此安排銀行貸款中的85%將實際上按每年3.513%的固定利率計息，而其餘15%將按香港銀行同業拆息加年息2.06%的浮動利率計息。預期集團融資成本將維持穩定。0501001502002503003504000.02.04.06.08.010.012.03/157/1511/151310.HKHSI (rebased)HK$Turnover (HK$ m) 香港寬頻 (1310.HK) 18 January, 2016 2  我們的看法 我們認為，集團的寬頻業務已漸趨成熟，按現時的覆蓋率及市場份額來看，正如彼所言主要依靠爭取低網速用戶升級來提升客戶人數及ARPU，OTT及4K內容對提升ARPU的作用仍有待觀察，我們預期集團收入的增長不會太快。 集團優勢主要在成本結構方面，由於網絡建設已達一定規模，網絡成本不斷下降，過去2年年複合增長率為-6.3%，加上廣告營銷開支及員工成本增長亦低於收入增長，導致其息稅折舊攤銷前利潤顯著增加。 據集團表示，其經調整自由現金流的90-100%將用作派息，按2015年財年經調整自由現金流3.92億港元計算，每股派息應為0.35-0.39港元，現價計息率為3.7-4.1%，由於集團仍保持增長，預期息率更高於此水平，可作為防守性之選。 圖1.住宅及企業客戶數目及ARPU 資料來源: 公司資料，群益證券 圖2.營運成本結構 資料來源: 公司資料，群益證券 66069275494810261010158175183293239020406080100120140160180200020040060080010001200FY13FY14FY15HK$('000)住宅用戶企業客戶ARPU住宅用戶ARPU企業客戶2292272017660105380378399312369404286.5327.1365.5263.4225.3110.2020040060080010001200140016001800FY13FY14FY15HK$ mn無形資產攤銷折舊員工成本廣告營銷開支銷售成本網絡成本 香港寬頻 (1310.HK) 18 January, 2016 3 表1. 香港寬頻2015年財年損益表 資料來源: 公司資料，群益證券 (HK$ mn)FY14FY15YoY收入2131.62341.19.8%其他淨收入12.916.829.8%網絡成本及銷售成本(287.1)(305.9)6.6%毛利1857.42052.010.5%其他營運開支(1560.8)(1602.0)2.6%營運利潤296.6450.051.7%融資成本(191.6)(260.0)35.7%應佔合營企業虧損0.0(0.1)N/A稅前利潤105.0189.980.7%所得稅(51.5)(85.6)66.2%純利53.6104.394.7%每股盈利 (港元)0.0540.10492.6% 4 Rating Definition Strong Buy Share price may exceed by 30% over next 12 months Buy Share price may exceed by 10% over next 12 months Hold Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over next 12 months Sell Share price may fall by more than 10% over next 12 months Strong Sell Share price may fall by more than 30% over next 12 months Disclaimer This publication is issued by CSC Securities (HK) Limited (“CSCSL”), a licensed corporation to carry on Type 1, 2 & 4 regulated activities under Securities and Futures Ordinance (CAP. 571) in Hong Kong, for sophisticated investors who understand the meaning of risks in investments and is produced solely for information purposes and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities or commodities. Investors must make their own determination in relation to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein base on the legal, tax, accounting considerations and investment strategy applicable to such investors. The information, opinions, and projections contained in this report are based upon sources believed to be reliable, but they have not been independently verified. Neither CSCSL, nor any of the companies of the Capital Company, nor any individual connected with the Company shall accept responsibility or liability for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information and opinion contained in this report are subject to change without notice. The Capital Company of which CSCSL is member, and/or their affiliated companies and/or directors, representatives, employees or officers as such, may from time to time perform investment, advisory, or other services for the companies mentioned in this publication, and where the applicable law permits, the above-mentioned entities or individuals may have used the research materials before publication or may have positions (as principal or otherwise) in, or otherwise be materially interested in, any of the securities mentioned herein. This report may not be