2017年版BP世界能源展望

bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats bp.com.cn/energyoutlook2017 © BP p.l.c. 2017 BP 1 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••9 63 46 50 54 58 23 45 4 2 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••95 72 76 82 70 ••• 88 90 92 86 3 © BP p.l.c. 2017 4 © BP p.l.c. 2017 5 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••••6 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••••7 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••••••8 © BP p.l.c. 2017 9 © BP p.l.c. 2017 0%1%2%3%4%1975-19951995-20152015-20350%1%2%3%4%1975-19951995-20152015-20350%1%2%3%4%1975-19951995-20152015-203510 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••••11 © BP p.l.c. 2017 036912151819651975198519952005201520252035Thousands -3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%1965-19751975-19851985-19951995-20052005-20152015-20252025-203512 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••••13 © BP p.l.c. 2017 0%10%20%30%40%50%196519751985199520052015202520350246810121416181965197519851995200520152025203514 © BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail ••••••15 © BP p.l.c. 2017 012345678196519751985199520052015202520350204060801001201401601802005-20152015-20252025-203516 © BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail ••••17 © BP p.l.c. 2017 20%30%40%50%19651975198519952005201520252035Coal Gas Hydro Renew. 18 024681019651975198519952005201520252035 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••••19 © BP p.l.c. 2017 010203040196519751985199520052015202520350.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%1995-2015 2015-2035 20 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••21 © BP p.l.c. 2017 22 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••••23 © BP p.l.c. 2017 8085909510010511024 © BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail •••••25 © BP p.l.c. 2017 -0.50.00.51.01.52.02005-20102010-20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-203502040608010012020002005201020152020202520302035††26 © BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail •••••27 © BP p.l.c. 2017 0%10%20%30%40%19952005201520252035-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.01995-20052005-20152015-20252025-203528 © BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail •••••29 © BP p.l.c. 2017 -0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.00.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61995-20152015-2035††30 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••31 © BP p.l.c. 2017 02040608010012014001002003004005001965197519851995200520152025203532 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••••33 © BP p.l.c. 2017 01020304050601995200520152025203501020304050601995200520152025203534 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••••35 © BP p.l.c. 2017 -0.50.00.51.01.51965-19751985-19952005-20152025-2035Thousands Conventional LNG Russian pipeline 0123451965197519851995200520152025203536 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••••37 © BP p.l.c. 2017 -600-400-2000200400600800100012001995-20052005-20152015-20252025-2035-600-400-2000200400600800100012001995-20052005-20152015-20252025-203538 © BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail ••••39 © BP p.l.c. 2017 0%10%20%30%40%1995-20152015-20350%10%20%30%40%1995200520152025203540 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••••41 © BP p.l.c. 2017 0204060801001201402015 2025 2035 2015 2025 2035 42 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••43 © BP p.l.c. 2017 44 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••• 45 © BP p.l.c. 2017 0.00.51.01.52.00501001502002502015202020252030203546 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••47 © BP p.l.c. 2017 19 23 17 0.2 1.2 23 05101520253035404548 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••••49 © BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 50 0.00.40.81.21.62.02.42.8198019851990199520002005201020152015- 2035 2015- 2050 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••••51 © BP p.l.c. 2017 40%45%50%55%60%65%01020304050607019851995200520152025203552 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••53 © BP p.l.c. 2017 01020304050607080199020052020203501020304050607080199020052020203554 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••••55 © BP p.l.c. 2017 17 56 44 5 17 7 9 22 17 2 © BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail ••••• 57 © BP p.l.c. 2017 0%3%5%8%10%1975-19951995-20152015-20350.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.71965197519851995200520152025203558 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••••59 © BP p.l.c. 2017 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%1975198519952005201520252035-200204060801001201401975-19951995-20152015-203560 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••••61 © BP p.l.c. 2017 62 © BP p.l.c. 2017 63 © BP p.l.c. 2017 -300-200-1000100200300-0.9% -5.6% 15.0% -2.5% -1.9% -0.2% 7.9% -1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5CO₂ (RHS) -3.7% 64 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••65 © BP p.l.c. 2017 GDP Fuel mix Base case growth -400-300-200-1000100200300400201520202025203020350123451995200520152025203566 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••67 © BP p.l.c. 2017 GDP Fuel mix Base case growth -15%-10%-5%0%5%10%20102015202020252030-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%2010201520202025203068 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••69 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••70 © BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail ••••71 © BP p.l.c. 2017 -15-10-50510150100200300400500†††-15-10-5051015-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%72 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••73 © BP p.l.c. 2017 15202515202574 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••75 © BP p.l.c. 2017 8 7 76 20304019952005201520252035 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••77 © BP p.l.c. 2017 CO2 0%10%20%30%40%50%-150-100-500501001502002502015-2035 2035 78 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••••79 © BP p.l.c. 2017 †•†80 © BP p.l.c. 2017 ••••81 © BP p.l.c. 2017 10%15%20%25%30%35%40%196519751985199520052015202520350.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%82 © BP p.l.c. 2017 •••••83 © BP p.l.c. 2017 0%30%60%90%196519751985199