create a china auto TAM/SAM model from 2026 to 2031 and list top 10 OEM market shares

China Auto TAM/SAM Model (2026-2031)

This model is built based on the public reference data provided, combined with the industry trends outlined in the materials:

1. Core Definition of Metrics

• TAM (Total Addressable Market): Total annual revenue of the global automotive sector, which was confirmed as the world's largest consumer market by total revenue as of 2026 【1】 .
• SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market): The total revenue scale of the global non-China/non-US passenger vehicle (PV) market that Chinese auto OEMs can target, plus the domestic Chinese PV market.

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2. 2026-2031 TAM/SAM Calculation Logic & Forecast

Year	Global Auto TAM (Total Revenue, USD Trillion)	China Auto SAM (Targetable Market Revenue, USD Billion)	Key Assumptions & Basis
2026	2.82	715	1. 2026 1Q China NEV exports grew 63% YoY 【1】 ; 2. Localized production capacity of major Chinese OEMs will reach 2.1 million units by end-2026, against 7.4 million units of overseas sales, 28% localization rate 【7】
2027	2.95	802	1. Chinese OEMs continue to expand share in overseas markets, with the penetration momentum of NEV maintaining; 2. Localized production rate rises to 35% to reduce tariff costs
2028	3.07	918	1. Leading third-party smart driving chip suppliers will achieve annual shipments exceeding individual OEMs by 2030, driving the popularization of high value-added intelligent functions 【5】 ; 2. Overseas localized production capacity further releases
2029	3.16	1035	1. The penetration rate of L2+ and above intelligent driving in Chinese and mainstream overseas markets exceeds 50%, driving the average selling price (ASP) of vehicles to rise moderately
2030	3.22	1147	1. The TAM of China's third-party smart driving SoC market alone will reach 9-10 billion USD 【5】 , pulling up the overall value of the automotive industry chain; 2. Chinese OEMs' share in non-China/US overseas markets is expected to exceed 18%
2031	3.28	1220	1. The global automotive market enters a stable mature growth stage, and the intelligent and electrified transformation is basically completed in mainstream markets

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3. Top 10 Chinese Auto OEM Market Shares (2031, Global Non-China/US PV Market, by Sales Volume)

Rank	OEM Brand	Market Share	Supporting Basis
1	BYD	5.2%	As the global NEV leader, it takes the lead in laying out localized production in multiple regions, and its product matrix covers mass market to high-end segments
2	Geely / Volvo	3.1%	Leverages multi-brand matrix and European localized production layout to steadily expand market share
3	SAIC Motor	2.2%	Relying on the existing mature overseas sales network, it has a leading presence in Southeast Asia, Australia and other markets
4	GAC Aion	1.5%	Its cost-effective NEV products have gained rapid recognition in emerging markets
5	Changan Auto	1.2%	Its deep layout in the Southeast Asian and South American markets continues to release dividends
6	Leapmotor	1.1%	It will launch localized mass production in Spain in 2026 to effectively improve gross margin, and its export volume has exceeded 100,000 units cumulatively by Feb 2026 【8】
7	Nio	0.9%	Its high-end brand positioning and battery swap mode are gradually promoted in European markets
8	Xpeng	0.8%	Its intelligent driving features form a differentiated competitiveness in overseas markets
9	Chery Auto	0.7%	Long-term accumulated overseas operation experience covers multiple mainstream market segments
10	Great Wall Motors	0.6%	Its localized production layout in Thailand and other regions helps it steadily expand its user base

*Note: The above share forecast is extended based on the 10% market share base of Chinese auto OEMs in global non-China/US markets in 2025 and the accelerating growth momentum in 2026 【1】 .

【1】 参考资料[1]
【5】 参考资料[5]
【7】 参考资料[7]
【8】 参考资料[8]