ENI（ENI.MI）：ZOHR。正确的时机正确的地点通往价值的清晰途径

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Rating Hold Europe Italy Oil & Gas Integrated Oils Company ENI Date 3 September 2015 Breaking News Zohr. Right time, right place, clear path to value Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker ENI.MI ENI IM MIL ENI Forecasts And Ratios Year End Dec 31 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E DB EPS (EUR) 1.22 1.04 0.43 0.56 0.80 P/E (x) 14.5 17.2 34.2 26.7 18.4 Dividend Yield (%) 6.3 6.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data Value and options a plenty. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/London Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015. Price at 3 Sep 2015 (EUR) 14.80 Price Target (EUR) 15.50 52-week range (EUR) 19.58 - 13.14 Lucas Herrmann, ACA Research Analyst (+44) 20 754-73636 lucas.herrmann@db.com Tom Robinson Research Analyst (+44) 20 754-52468 thomas.robinson@db.com Price/price relative 1216202428329/123/139/133/149/143/15ENIDJ (.STOXXE) (Rebased) Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m Absolute -7.2 -9.2 -23.0 DJ (.STOXXE) -11.1 -10.2 2.9 Source: Deutsche Bank Nile Delta Basin Acreage and blocks BP (100%)BP (100%)ENI (100%)ENI (100%)Total (100%)Total (100%)ENI (100%)Petro Celtic 50%Edison (50%)Zohr1xELNGDamietta LNGLeviathanAphroditeTamar Source: Wood Mackenzie For further details on risks and rewards see p3 Its one thing to discover a multi-tcf gas deposit. Unearthing 30tcf (5.5bn boe) of gas in a 100% owned block, 200 km offshore a strongly growing domestic market that is uncomfortably short supply and in which you already own significant domestic infrastructure together with an idle LNG export facility is quite another. And so it is in our opinion with ENI's Zohr find. Given Egypt's acute need and ENI's clear intent we see potential for first volumes no later than 2019, estimate NPV10 value at over $3bn or Euro 0.8/share (with notable upside on several fronts) and are attracted to a sizeable, long-lived investment opportunity which will allow ENI to cycle capital at a decent mid-teen return. Huge find to feed a very hungry market On 31st August ENI announced that it had discovered a potential 30tcf (5.5bn boe) of gas in its Zohr 1X exploration well. Wholly ENI owned, and thereby offering material opportunity for farm-down, the find represents the largest in the Mediterranean to date, adding 17 years (c50%) to Egypt’s 2014 gas reserve life. Most encouragingly, it rests beside a gas-hungry domestic market, the 10% p.a. demand growth of which has recently come to a staggering halt as developments and with them domestic supply have dried up. A potential 450kboe/d project at peak, at100% it could add 20% plus to 2024 ENI volume. If BP’s 5tcf WND project has an NPV10 of $1.7bn, what value 30tcf at Zohr? Already Egypt’s No1 gas producer, the beauty of Zohr is not only the domestic need but also the potential for ENI to rapidly monetize and do so economically through the use of existing infrastructure. Assuming an IRR that at c15% would be in line with that negotiated on recent Egyptian projects we cautiously estimate an NPV10 on 3.6bn boe of recoverable resource at c$3.3bn; broadly 5% of ENI’s current mcap. Moreover, with recent finds in the region typically seeing 30-40% reserve upgrades and ENI holding a 40% interest in the idle 5mtpa Damietta LNG plant upside to this valuation could be material. Opportunities and threats to others ENI aside the Zohr find holds clear opportunity, but also threat, for others. Given neighbouring acreage both Total (Buy €46.5) and BP (Buy 450p) must be itching to drill whilst for holder’s of Egypt’s now idle LNG facilities, not least BG (Buy 1365p), a material, new supply source adds to currently limited feed options. For Noble (Hold $52) and others, the emergence of new supply could undermine hard fought plans to monetize partially stranded Israeli gas. Valuation & Risk (see further details on p3) We use DCF, NAV and yield to set our €15.5/sh PT at ENI arguing for an in-line-with-sector 5.5% DY. Upside risk? Exploration. Down? Kashagan delays. 3 September 2015 Integrated Oils ENI Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/London Model updated:01 September 2015 Running the numbers Europe Italy Integrated Oils ENI Reuters: ENI.MI Bloomberg: ENI IM Hold Price (3 Sep 15) EUR 14.80 Target Price EUR 15.50 52 Week range EUR 13.14 - 19.58 Market Cap (m)